Texas Winter 2013-2014

[TheProfessor]

Do you think that the second half of winter could rival that of 2009-2010 or 2010-2011?

[texas1836]

I'm hoping for something like 1983 or 1989, but with snow. I'd like to see 24" of snow, right here in McKinney.

[Portastorm]

More information from the desk of the Portastorm Weather Center:

You may have read the following in our earlier morning post: As mentioned already by Ntxw and srainhoutx, the latest teleconnection indices and forecasts are quite interesting. If verified, we will be heading into a period of an increasingly negative Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern which features high pressure ridges in the western US (depending on placement, sometimes the ridge covers a good third of the Western US and sometimes the ridging is more towards the Pacific coast). Depending on the placement of the ridging, it could be a vehicle to deliver cold (very cold) air from Canada/Alaska/North Pole/Siberia into the lower 48, namely the central and eastern CONUS. And, we still see the indices suggesting a negative EPO although the strength of the negativity may wane a bit. You will recall that a negative EPO comes from strong high pressure ridging in the northeast Pacific. This ridge of high pressure blocks the jet stream and forces it to go up and over the high cell. We're also seeing some suggestion that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) will go to neutral after being strongly positive for awhile. A neutral AO should help funnel more cold air south into the CONUS.

This information is incorrect. A positive, not negative, PNA pattern is what yields the aforementioned high pressure ridge pattern which *can* be conducive to colder weather in Texas. This is what happens when meteorologists are allowed to imbide while on the job. The PWC is immediately putting several meteorologists on "indefinite hiatus" for consuming Grey Goose while drafting forecasts.

However, the following PNA forecast suggests the PNA which has been negative to go neutral to slightly positive. The PWC regrets any false hopes dashed by this clarification.



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[srainhoutx]

If you recall back to the events of early December, we witnessed a -EPO/neutral to slightly +PNA and the AO briefly declined to slightly positive from a very positive+3 to+4 level. While there will likely remain a lot of volatility in the operational/ensemble guidance as the pattern transitions, the signals do suggest we trend back to a colder regime in the late December/early January time frame.

[hriverajr]

The only model that gives me hope for some potential winter weather (Central Texas) for around New Years is the ECMWF. Otherwise I'm not ultra impressed unfortunately.

[Snowman67]

Looks like 57 was able to bottle up that cold weather just enough to keep N. Texas in the heat. 71F at Dallas and 31F at Oklahoma City. Looking at the forecast for several locations in Oklahoma over the next few days, they will be lucky to go above the low- mid 30's for highs...

[ravyrn]

I thought the front wasn't forecast to arrive until tonight/Sat morning for the metroplex?

[Snowman67]

I thought the front wasn't forecast to arrive until tonight/Sat morning for the metroplex?

Right, but the temps in Oklahoma will be significantly colder than Dallas over the next few days even after the front arrives.

[Tammie]

42 in Denton after being 68 around noon. NWS says our low will be 43 today. We'll see if it keeps falling.

[TexasStorm]

I will start the online petition to get you guys back to forecasting again

[gboudx]

I thought the front wasn't forecast to arrive until tonight/Sat morning for the metroplex?

I was at Collin Creek Mall in Plano 20 mins ago. My car temp was at 72 and when I got to work 10 mins later, it was 59. It's coming through now. But I believe there are 2 waves of this front and this is the initial. This is the one that will stall and become the focus for heavy precip/severe weather tonight. It's the question of where it stalls on who gets what weather.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Temperatures do appear to be colder behind the cold front than the forecast was calling for.

[wxman57]

A beautiful 76 degrees at my house now. Going for an evening bike ride with the wife to eat at Ruggles in Rice Village and look at Christmas lights.

[Tammie]

40 in Denton now. The NWS says we are supposed to hit a low of 44 around 3 a.m. tomorrow morning. They are off by 12 hours on temps. Anyone know why?

[Ralph's Weather]

New to posting here. This storm is looking more interesting as far as the cold goes than anyone expected. Anyone care to share thoughts on why that is and what impacts it will have? I assume everything is going to shift south and east of the forecast.

[wxman57]

New to posting here. This storm is looking more interesting as far as the cold goes than anyone expected. Anyone care to share thoughts on why that is and what impacts it will have? I assume everything is going to shift south and east of the forecast.

It doesn't mean much for Texas. The freezing precip will remain in Oklahoma.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

New to posting here. This storm is looking more interesting as far as the cold goes than anyone expected. Anyone care to share thoughts on why that is and what impacts it will have? I assume everything is going to shift south and east of the forecast.

It doesn't mean much for Texas. The freezing precip will remain in Oklahoma.

Nocona and Bowie are at 32...

[Ralph's Weather]

I tend to agree, but temps are right around freezing into areas as far south as Bowie already. What about the heaviest of the rain? I expect it to shift with the front.

[veedub63]

I hope I'm not violating any rules here, but be vigilant in your anti - flu efforts this season. Looks like a nasty bug is beginning to circulate.

http://www.recombinomics.com/news/12201301/H1N1_Houston_Conf.html

Happy holidays!

[Portastorm]

I hope I'm not violating any rules here, but be vigilant in your anti - flu efforts this season. Looks like a nasty bug is beginning to circulate.

http://www.recombinomics.com/news/12201301/H1N1_Houston_Conf.html

Happy holidays!

Good, helpful info but best to post your link and move it to the following forum:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=6