ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

If this largely misses Hispaniola, what are conditions like south of Cuba and between Cuba and Jamaica?

[Kingarabian]

Tropical storm Erika isn't even worth following anymore everyone should enjoy your weekend and maybe you will get a thunderstorm storm or too the NHC really got this one wrong. The models all need to be fixed they can't be taken seriously anymore they have no clue. It is laughable. Just an opinion not a forecast

Posts like these probably make weather officials cringe for releasing model data and depictions to the public. Computer models are here to aid forecasts. While they are not perfect, they generally do a good job. Remember, the Euro and GFS models were not showing much out of Erika early on.

[Dean4Storms]

This LLC isn't done yet folks, it is still there. If it keeps tracking westward in the lower level flow it might even stay south of Eastern Cuba for a bit before deepening then feeling the Ridge and moving more NW and eventually North.

I wouldn't write this off yet and those that are you are doing so foolishly. Even Andrew looked worse than this way out East of the Bahamas and you saw what Convection and better UL conditions can do in a hurry!

[wjs3]

I like the latest NHC discussion - makes clear they are being generous to maintain this as a TS, and want to see what happens for next 12 hours or so with Erika. Also waiting to issue TS watches/warnings for FL in case nothing survives Hispanola. And on top of that, points out that, yeah, the whole "forecast turn to WNW/NW" thing from the models hasn't materialized for basically forever. LOL

That Discussion nailed it exactly correct.

I find a lot of disucssions at the NHC have become really generic--almost cut and paste. Not this one. Loved it.

[Weatherlover12]

I think it's fair to say the models and the humans do much better with legit storms. I've long wished storms weren't designated until 50 knots...the one's south of that wind up being complacency builders. the public feels like they've been suckered again and when folks don't leave for a real storm there's no doubt the chicken little Erika's deserve at least a portion of the blame.

Exactly! This how I feel... If another storm were to target FL.. I most likely won't take it seriously. I don't want it come but it would've been nice for her to give us some impact after all the prep we were told to do.
Thanks for saying this

[sunnyday]

Do I understand that Erica is basically a wave now? So sad to say, but people are major lined up at gas stations, water is stripped off store shelves, last minute panicking going on. Yet, the local station is still hyping like crazy.

[Blizzard96x]

The south of Hispaniola center just convected itself nicely.

At this rate its going to Jamaica.

[WeatherGuesser]

If y'all get bored, there's a potential Cat 4, maybe even 5 brewing over thataway <<<<<<<.

[Dean4Storms]

It's like this. The same models that were blowing it up in the Bahamas and sending it northward up along the East Coast of Florida as a Hurricane are the ones generally now saying nothing is going to come of a sizable TS traversing the Islands headed for the FL Straits and the GOM where SST's are boiling.

Don't start with Shear, I've seen 100mph Sheared Hurricanes!

[AdamFirst]

How did all the models manage to get it so wrong with this?

Perhaps they were initialized with too strong of a vortex.

That's what I'm thinking. Too many runs thinking the center is stacked and the system is somewhat sound.

[AutoPenalti]

The south of Hispaniola center just convected itself nicely.

At this rate its going to Jamaica.

In before this may or may not happen

[alienstorm]

There is going to be massive flooding in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. So pray for those poor people and be lucky we live were we live.

[Blizzard96x]

This LLC isn't done yet folks, it is still there. If it keeps tracking westward in the lower level flow it might even stay south of Eastern Cuba for a bit before deepening then feeling the Ridge and moving more NW and eventually North.

I wouldn't write this off yet and those that are you are doing so foolishly. Even Andrew looked worse than this way out East of the Bahamas and you saw what Convection and better UL conditions can do in a hurry!

Except the shear is everywhere besides the Bahamas, so this isn't going to materialize into anything other than heavy rain that it is now, imo.

[vbhoutex]

I think it's fair to say the models and the humans do much better with legit storms. I've long wished storms weren't designated until 50 knots...the one's south of that wind up being complacency builders. the public feels like they've been suckered again and when folks don't leave for a real storm there's no doubt the chicken little Erika's deserve at least a portion of the blame.

Exactly! This how I feel... If another storm were to target FL.. I most likely won't take it seriously. I don't want it come but it would've been nice for her to give us some impact after all the prep we were told to do.
Thanks for saying this

I don't know what age you are or if you have children or own property, but EVERYONE in a possible Tropcial Cyclone impact area should ALWAYS be ready, at least during Hurricane season. To make statements like this is at a minimum irresponsible imho.
Excuse me. Rant over.

[psyclone]

I think it's fair to say the models and the humans do much better with legit storms. I've long wished storms weren't designated until 50 knots...the one's south of that wind up being complacency builders. the public feels like they've been suckered again and when folks don't leave for a real storm there's no doubt the chicken little Erika's deserve at least a portion of the blame.

Exactly! This how I feel... If another storm were to target FL.. I most likely won't take it seriously. I don't want it come but it would've been nice for her to give us some impact after all the prep we were told to do.
Thanks for saying this

If a real storm targets FL and you don't take it seriously the joke will be on you. Discernment matters. And let's face it...how much prep were you told to do? we've never had any watches/warnings or the system posing an imminent threat...if anything this is an argument against longer range forecasting. Imagine if we were still using the old 3 cone on this one. I'm not suggesting we should go back but it is food for thought. I still use the 4 and 5 day positions as tropical slot machines: for entertainment only. Erika reinforces this tendency.

[Stormcenter]

Great post and I sincerely mean that.

It's like this. The same models that were blowing it up in the Bahamas and sending it northward up along the East Coast of Florida as a Hurricane are the ones generally now saying nothing is going to come of a sizable TS traversing the Islands headed for the FL Straits and the GOM where SST's are boiling.

Don't start with Shear, I've seen 100mph Sheared Hurricanes!

[TheStormExpert]

Do I understand that Erica is basically a wave now? So sad to say, but people are major lined up at gas stations, water is stripped off store shelves, last minute panicking going on. Yet, the local station is still hyping like crazy.

Went from a possible Florida hurricane threat to barely even a Tropical Storm sliding into SW Florida in less than 24hrs.

At this point I'd say it's about over for this mess of a storm.

Someone please put the nail in the coffin for pete sakes!

[psyclone]

And BTW I am still watching this with interest. Never turn your back on a disturbance at this time of the year...

[Weatherlover12]

I think it's fair to say the models and the humans do much better with legit storms. I've long wished storms weren't designated until 50 knots...the one's south of that wind up being complacency builders. the public feels like they've been suckered again and when folks don't leave for a real storm there's no doubt the chicken little Erika's deserve at least a portion of the blame.

Exactly! This how I feel... If another storm were to target FL.. I most likely won't take it seriously. I don't want it come but it would've been nice for her to give us some impact after all the prep we were told to do.
Thanks for saying this

If a real storm targets FL and you don't take it seriously the joke will be on you. Discernment matters. And let's face it...how much prep were you told to do? we've never had any watches/warnings or the system posing an imminent threat...if anything this is an argument against longer range forecasting. Imagine if we were still using the old 3 cone on this one. I'm not suggesting we should go back but it is food for thought. I still use the 4 and 5 day positions as tropical slot machines: for entertainment only. Erika reinforces this tendency.

The way it was hyped.. Scared me

[blp]

Finally making landfall..... About time.