Texas Winter 2016-2017

[bubba hotep]

the GFS isn't even really cold lol

Dumas goes from 10F at 00z 1/7/17 on the 18z to 52F on the 00z!!

[Brent]

this run just crushes the Carolinas, congrats I guess lol

[starsfan65]

this run just crushes the Carolinas, congrats I guess lol

This better be a bad run.

[Ntxw]

the GFS isn't even really cold lol

Dumas goes from 10F at 00z 1/7/17 on the 18z to 52F on the 00z!!

Power of being 7 days out That's pretty crazy though run to run.

[bubba hotep]

One thing that has been noticeable in the ensembles was that the operational models were on the cold side and the spread was toward warmer. I guess this is an adjustment towards the warmer side of the spread.

[Brent]

yeah this is why I refuse to get excited about week out threats... the best ones usually sneak up on you imo anyway.

But the models have been all over the place.

[ronyan]

Check the GFS again in a couple days, too much variance.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I don't buy the temps... not with a rare deep neg EPO AND crashing AO with a snowpack to the north

I could care less about the precip at this point. It's worthless until 48-72 out

[starsfan65]

I don't buy the temps... not with a rare deep neg EPO AND crashing AO with a snowpack to the north

I could care less about the precip at this point. It's worthless until 48-72 out

Yeah The EPO is very negative and so is the AO.

[Ntxw]

I don't buy the temps... not with a rare deep neg EPO AND crashing AO with a snowpack to the north

I could care less about the precip at this point. It's worthless until 48-72 out

I've been skeptical of the GFS' temps. You're right though it's not often you see that -EPO like that strong and DFW barely brushes freezing. I guess it could happen since the southern US is zonal especially with the trough is flat like the GFS shows but it doesn't happen often.

[starsfan65]

I don't buy the temps... not with a rare deep neg EPO AND crashing AO with a snowpack to the north

I could care less about the precip at this point. It's worthless until 48-72 out

I've been skeptical of the GFS' temps. You're right though it's not often you see that -EPO like that strong and DFW barely brushes freezing. I guess it could happen since the southern US is zonal especially with the trough is flat like the GFS shows but it doesn't happen often.

It will get very cold next week.

[bubba hotep]

I don't buy the temps... not with a rare deep neg EPO AND crashing AO with a snowpack to the north

I could care less about the precip at this point. It's worthless until 48-72 out

Yeah, big -EPO with a la nina background state does seem to favor the legit cold dumps. However, the +PDO throws a wrench is a bunch of those analogs.

[Brent]

maybe some 70s at day 11-12

[starsfan65]

maybe some 70s at day 11-12

This run is getting out of hand.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I don't buy the temps... not with a rare deep neg EPO AND crashing AO with a snowpack to the north

I could care less about the precip at this point. It's worthless until 48-72 out

I've been skeptical of the GFS' temps. You're right though it's not often you see that -EPO like that strong and DFW barely brushes freezing. I guess it could happen since the southern US is zonal especially with the trough is flat like the GFS shows but it doesn't happen often.

Except this airmass is coming from a source region that is frigid. The last big front we had was in a very progressive pattern and the airmass bled south. This one is colder and the EPO is even more on our side.

[starsfan65]

I don't buy the temps... not with a rare deep neg EPO AND crashing AO with a snowpack to the north

I could care less about the precip at this point. It's worthless until 48-72 out

I've been skeptical of the GFS' temps. You're right though it's not often you see that -EPO like that strong and DFW barely brushes freezing. I guess it could happen since the southern US is zonal especially with the trough is flat like the GFS shows but it doesn't happen often.

Except this airmass is coming from a source region that is frigid. The last big front we had was in a very progressive pattern and the airmass bled south. This one is colder and the EPO is even more on our side.

Plus the Storm System is still in Russia.

[Snowman67]

I have a feeling Wxman57 is at the controls laughing like a mad scientist.

[starsfan65]

I have a feeling Wxman57 is at the controls laughing like a mad scientist.

Yeah I smell a rat.

[Cuda17]

Man... you guys must have really ticked off the heat miser with all of this cold talk. He's got his hot hands all over that cold control knob. From now on let's just shhhhhhhhhhh about the cold stuff.

[gboudx]

Plus the Storm System is still in Russia.

Like Steve McCauley posted tonight:

Mild weather will persist through Tuesday of next week and then the first of two significant cold fronts will move in keeping us below normal for the latter half of next week and into next weekend as well. Then a storm system will sweep across a reinforcing shot of even colder air next Friday into next weekend bringing a variety of precipitation, including rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow.
Will this be a BIG winter storm or a minor nuisance? Don't know.
Will this bring a significant ice event to millions of north Texans or just spotty accumulations on bridges and overpasses in remote areas? Don't know.
Will everyone see lots of snow or will it just be a few flurries for a select few and perhaps a light dusting here and there? Don't know.
Why don't I know? Because the exact storm track is not yet clear, AND a difference of as little as 1-degree on the thermometer anywhere in the atmosphere - from the ground to 20,000 feet up - could be the difference between a cold rain and a dumping of snow and ice.
Can I forecast the exact path and strength of a winter storm that hasn't even fully formed yet and is over 4,000 miles away AND the temperature to within 1 degree accuracy throughout the depth of the atmosphere a week in advance ? No.
So why bother trying? Because the math suggests the possibility is there.
Stay tuned.