Texas Winter 2018-2019

[bubba hotep]

Wow!! the Northern latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are cooling off quite dramatically by Week 2. The Expansion of the Stratosphere and subsequent compression of the Tropo caused by the SSW event is really cooling the surface above 45-50 N. Now we sit back and wait for the teleconnections to align to deliver the goods....AO is tanking, still waiting on EPO tank

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019010506/gfs-ens_T2maMean_nhem_12.png

00z Euro EPS has basically no cold air in NAM at that time frame with the coldest air confined to the Arctic Circle and other side. However, there are signs that the NPAC is starting to retrograde and that higher heights are building into the NAO region. That is getting into the last 1/3 of January. So maybe we should be looking towards the end of Jan or beginning of Feb? It is a bit concerning how stubborn the Pacific jet is, even the control looks like the EPS in the long range. We need that to retract/relax to allow for amplification of the ridge into the EPO region.

[missygirl810]

A wall? Good idea! Let's build one on the norther U.S. border to keep the cold air out.

We will not fund that particular wall sir lol

[orangeblood]

Wow!! the Northern latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are cooling off quite dramatically by Week 2. The Expansion of the Stratosphere and subsequent compression of the Tropo caused by the SSW event is really cooling the surface above 45-50 N. Now we sit back and wait for the teleconnections to align to deliver the goods....AO is tanking, still waiting on EPO tank

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019010506/gfs-ens_T2maMean_nhem_12.png

00z Euro EPS has basically no cold air in NAM at that time frame with the coldest air confined to the Arctic Circle and other side. However, there are signs that the NPAC is starting to retrograde and that higher heights are building into the NAO region. That is getting into the last 1/3 of January. So maybe we should be looking towards the end of Jan or beginning of Feb? It is a bit concerning how stubborn the Pacific jet is, even the control looks like the EPS in the long range. We need that to retract/relax to allow for amplification of the ridge into the EPO region.

MJO is not helping things, appears it’s about to slide into the circle of death!!! Need a cattle prod from somewhere ????

[wxman57]

A wall? Good idea! Let's build one on the norther U.S. border to keep the cold air out.

We will not fund that particular wall sir lol

Well, then perhaps I'll just shut down winter...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

A wall? Good idea! Let's build one on the norther U.S. border to keep the cold air out.

We will not fund that particular wall sir lol

Well, then perhaps I'll just shut down winter...

Well so far you’ve been doing a really good job at it. Warm enough for short sleeve shirts most of the time, even shorts before and on Christmas Day. Not even a light freeze in sight. This time last year we were in the middle of freezes every night for a week straight. Before long Mardi Gras will be here and this fake winter will be done and over with.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I like extremes. If no brutal cold is on tap this year then let’s just end winter and bring on spring and severe storm season.

[rwfromkansas]

I am just surprised that the warm bubble off the northwest didn’t help promote ridging out west.

[Ralph's Weather]

I made it down to 31 this morning. Beautiful warm day today.

[gpsnowman]

I made it down to 31 this morning. Beautiful warm day today.

I won't lie, a 66 degree day with bright sunshine feels great. But a weeks worth of below freezing temps with a big snowstorm would feel better.

[Ntxw]

I like extremes. If no brutal cold is on tap this year then let’s just end winter and bring on spring and severe storm season.

Easy for you WF folks to say, you've already had 2 bouts of snow!

[gpsnowman]

I made it down to 31 this morning. Beautiful warm day today.

I won't lie, a 66 degree day with bright sunshine feels great. But a weeks worth of below freezing temps with a big snowstorm would feel better.

Now I have a reading of 72 on my phone. Big time temp bust on the high end today.

[Texas Snow]

00z Euro EPS has basically no cold air in NAM at that time frame with the coldest air confined to the Arctic Circle and other side. However, there are signs that the NPAC is starting to retrograde and that higher heights are building into the NAO region. That is getting into the last 1/3 of January. So maybe we should be looking towards the end of Jan or beginning of Feb? It is a bit concerning how stubborn the Pacific jet is, even the control looks like the EPS in the long range. We need that to retract/relax to allow for amplification of the ridge into the EPO region.

If we are having to wait for cold until the end of January or Early Feb talk then Next thing we know the cold will here in March and then all of a sudden it will be spring. Strange how this keeps getting pushed out further and furthe in a winter that was supposed to be a “sure thing”

[SouthernMet]

A wall? Good idea! Let's build one on the norther U.S. border to keep the cold air out.

We will not fund that particular wall sir lol

Well, then perhaps I'll just shut down winter...

Lol

[Cpv17]

00z Euro EPS has basically no cold air in NAM at that time frame with the coldest air confined to the Arctic Circle and other side. However, there are signs that the NPAC is starting to retrograde and that higher heights are building into the NAO region. That is getting into the last 1/3 of January. So maybe we should be looking towards the end of Jan or beginning of Feb? It is a bit concerning how stubborn the Pacific jet is, even the control looks like the EPS in the long range. We need that to retract/relax to allow for amplification of the ridge into the EPO region.

If we are having to wait for cold until the end of January or Early Feb talk then Next thing we know the cold will here in March and then all of a sudden it will be spring. Strange how this keeps getting pushed out further and furthe in a winter that was supposed to be a “sure thing”

Lol exactly!! I’m going to give it about another 3 weeks for some cold to start showing up on the models and if it doesn’t then I’ll be ready for some spring thunderstorms.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I like extremes. If no brutal cold is on tap this year then let’s just end winter and bring on spring and severe storm season.

Easy for you WF folks to say, you've already had 2 bouts of snow!

True, but I love the cold as much as the snow. Without the week long cold spells here and there throughout the season it just doesn’t feel like winter. I also feel with the way our weather and temps have been over the past numerous winters, that outside of the panhandle and the further from the western and central part of the river, getting snow seems harder and harder. I’ve been rooting for y’all the last two chances there have been but let’s also see what we can do to get some true cold into Texas.

[Yukon Cornelius]

00z Euro EPS has basically no cold air in NAM at that time frame with the coldest air confined to the Arctic Circle and other side. However, there are signs that the NPAC is starting to retrograde and that higher heights are building into the NAO region. That is getting into the last 1/3 of January. So maybe we should be looking towards the end of Jan or beginning of Feb? It is a bit concerning how stubborn the Pacific jet is, even the control looks like the EPS in the long range. We need that to retract/relax to allow for amplification of the ridge into the EPO region.

If we are having to wait for cold until the end of January or Early Feb talk then Next thing we know the cold will here in March and then all of a sudden it will be spring. Strange how this keeps getting pushed out further and furthe in a winter that was supposed to be a “sure thing”

Wash, rinse, repeat.

[Yukon Cornelius]

The forecast today was 55, it’s currently 67. Sweating shouldn’t be a thing in January.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I like extremes. If no brutal cold is on tap this year then let’s just end winter and bring on spring and severe storm season.

Easy for you WF folks to say, you've already had 2 bouts of snow!

True, but I love the cold as much as the snow. Without the week long cold spells here and there throughout the season it just doesn’t feel like winter. I also feel with the way our weather and temps have been over the past numerous winters, that outside of the panhandle and the further from the western and central part of the river, getting snow seems harder and harder. I’ve been rooting for y’all the last two chances there have been but let’s also see what we can do to get some true cold into Texas.

Houston had 3 separate snow events last year. Some of y’all get so frustrated that statements come out that simply aren’t based in fact.

This decade has been so much better than the 90s and before that the 50s and 30s.

The winters of 2008-2014/15 were great. DFW is going through a mini drought now. It happens.

It got down to 3 degrees in the Davy Crockett Nationl forest last year outside of Crockett and Alto. It can still get as cold as it always has and some winters it can be 80... that’s nothing new either. It’s happened at least once a decade since we started recording temps.

This “new normal” is something constructed in your heads. I’m not singling you out YC, just something I wanted to rant on.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Easy for you WF folks to say, you've already had 2 bouts of snow!

True, but I love the cold as much as the snow. Without the week long cold spells here and there throughout the season it just doesn’t feel like winter. I also feel with the way our weather and temps have been over the past numerous winters, that outside of the panhandle and the further from the western and central part of the river, getting snow seems harder and harder. I’ve been rooting for y’all the last two chances there have been but let’s also see what we can do to get some true cold into Texas.

Houston had 3 separate snow events last year. Some of y’all get so frustrated that statements come out that simply aren’t based in fact.

This decade has been so much better than the 90s and before that the 50s and 30s.

The winters of 2008-2014/15 were great. DFW is going through a mini drought now. It happens.

It got down to 3 degrees in the Davy Crockett Nationl forest last year outside of Crockett and Alto. It can still get as cold as it always has and some winters it can be 80... that’s nothing new either. It’s happened at least once a decade since we started recording temps.

This “new normal” is something constructed in your heads. I’m not singling you out YC, just something I wanted to rant on.

I’m not really complaining, more making an observation regarding the last few winters. Overall this winter has been pretty decent so far. We’ve had a dusting and 2.5-3” of snow so far and we aren’t even to our snowiest period. My only wish is for some actual cold, cold cold. Not this mid 20s for lows bs, single digit lows that we’ve had for the last 3 winters. Like I said, I like extremes.

[harp]

Well, still, there is absolutely NOTHING showing up on the GFS.