ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

The changes over the last two hours on satellite are incredible, just beyond words. And frightening it's happening with landfall so soon with so little time to weaken (if it does at all)

[northjaxpro]

US Tropics, I just do not see at this point looking at those incredible convective tops within the eyewall how this cyclone won't attain Cat 5. Wow !

[xironman]

Genuinely seems that CNN and other major news sources don't give a This will get you banned about this storm. Little to no national coverage, at least as far as I can find. Small storm, unpopulated area? I'm Canadian I'm just curious why the lack of coverage?

I'm guessing they all got burnt by Florence. Not so it wasn't an impressive storm but it certainly didn't come in as a 3 / 4 as they were expecting and so I think the media a little more cautious this time.

As others have said this is not your typical normal Gulf of Mexico storm, most canes this far north are already weakening

The incoming trough guarantees a warm most feed off the gulf rather than letting it suck air off the continent. It is almost to the shelf so the shallower water may impede it a bit, but it has so much momentum it is hard to see it doing much.

[northjaxpro]

My God, , I really really hope that people heeded the mandator y evacuation orders out there. This is just terrifying what is unfolding currently.

[TheDreamTraveler]

The changes over the last two hours on satellite are incredible, just beyond words. And frightening it's happening with landfall so soon with so little time to weaken (if it does at all)

My thought exactly. I really hope everyone evacuated. It's so easy to believe a storm won't be that strong at landfall due to the media overhyping things and previous storms weakening as they approached landfall. I'm just hoping these people took it seriously. There's not much more time left to react.

[MississippiWx]

ADT 9.0 is still running a lil bit too high IMO.
CI is at 7.0 - that's Cat 5 number - which is way above recon data. They gotta revise that algorithm.

The NE quad still hasn't been sampled. I'm not saying it's Cat 5, but it could be much closer than we think.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This just goes to show how differently intense hurricanes can behave. Florence was having EWRCs like every 6 hours (when it was intense) and Michael probably wont have 1

[TheDreamTraveler]

Michael is once again another example of why intensity is one of the hardest things to forecast for a hurricane. Remember when NHC were saying it wouldn't get any stronger than a minimal category 1 hurricane? lol

[Jonny]

 http://twitter.com/NickLilja/status/1049909919300931585

[KWT]

This just goes to show how differently intense hurricanes can behave. Florence was having EWRCs like every 6 hours (when it was intense) and Michael probably wont have 1

I think the convection is so intense in the inner eyewall there is no way an outer band can take hold.

NE quad is going to be really interesting.

[Jonny]

 http://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1049911349491445760

[northjaxpro]

Intensity forecasts for tropical cyclones will always be difficult to decipher.

It is the defining challenge of this science which despite all the tools and advances in modern technology we have at our use, it likely in my lifetime won't be where we can nail these type of forecasts.. We will keep at it though.

[FLpanhandle91]

Lost output from recon.

[chaser1]

The changes over the last two hours on satellite are incredible, just beyond words. And frightening it's happening with landfall so soon with so little time to weaken (if it does at all)

Yep; just nothing to say - nothing to add. I'm just marveling at what this storm is doing and trying to imagine the storm surge already piling up along the coastline. Anyone offhand know the approx. times of high tides along the coast there?

[MississippiWx]

Lost output from recon.

Recon data for this storm has been painfully slow coming through for some reason.

[Ritzcraker]

 https://twitter.com/NWSTallahassee/status/1049897541339369472




I would compare this warning to the one that NWS Nola issued that talked about certain death during Katrina...

[USTropics]

The changes over the last two hours on satellite are incredible, just beyond words. And frightening it's happening with landfall so soon with so little time to weaken (if it does at all)

Yep; just nothing to say - nothing to add. I'm just marveling at what this storm is doing and trying to imagine the storm surge already piling up along the coastline. Anyone offhand know the approx. times of high tides along the coast there?

High tide would roughly be around 7-9 PM. The EGOM only experiences about 1-2 ft increase during high tide, though.

[Rail Dawg]

Ok here’s a first report from the bunker about a 1/2 mile from the beach in Panama City.

Got Big Truck into a garage and am sitting about 30’ above sea level. Can go up to 45’ if necessary so the storm surge is no problem.

Am surrounded by cement walls and if things get crazy there’s always the cement stairwell.

Very ominous booming of thunder and lots of lightning to the south. Wind about 20mph but you can tell something big is coming.

Am going to get a few hours rest in Big Truck then see what the morning brings.

Note: the town hasn’t done much at all to prepare. No boards from my vantage point and lots of loose stuff lying around. Place is a ghost town.

This could go Cat 5.

Will post in the am.

[USTropics]

Michael has an incredibly annular appearance now, and the lightning strikes on the eastern eyewall continue to increase:

[northjaxpro]

i think the tweet above regarding this storm surge potential from the Tallahassee NWS WFO says it all!

That is about as grim as it gets with a message :