Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS wants double Arctic blasts within 7 days of each other

Arctic Blast #1 (2.11.2021)

[url]https://s2.gifyu.com/images/sfct.conus.png[/url ]

Arctic Blast #2 (2.18.2021)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/sfct.conus2b36e2f027a49266.png

The first one is more modified than the second one

These models right now are so volatile that I'd recommend not to be hung up on what they are showing exactly. The timing and intensity keeps changing. So is the precip. Just have to be patient.

I don't want this trend to disappear!
EDIT: the 18z Models have started

GFS-Para model.exe has stopped working

[aggiecutter]

The EURO is never wrong:


[url=https://imgbb.com/]

[harp]

The EURO is never wrong:

[url]https://i.ibb.co/92gZhzm/Snow.png [/url]
boy waiting for girl images

Push it a little further south please....

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS says, "Let's do two winter wx events in two weeks!" All kidding aside, the system we were tacking may have folded but there should be some other chances with cold air over the top and an active flow off the Pacific.

[Brent]

18z GFS says, "Let's do two winter wx events in two weeks!" All kidding aside, the system we were tacking may have folded but there should be some other chances with cold air over the top and an active flow off the Pacific.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020218/gfs_asnow_scus_65.png

Is it ever gonna make it inside 100 hours

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS says, "Let's do two winter wx events in two weeks!" All kidding aside, the system we were tacking may have folded but there should be some other chances with cold air over the top and an active flow off the Pacific.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020218/gfs_asnow_scus_65.png

Is it ever gonna make it inside 100 hours

[hriverajr]

18z GFS says, "Let's do two winter wx events in two weeks!" All kidding aside, the system we were tacking may have folded but there should be some other chances with cold air over the top and an active flow off the Pacific.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020218/gfs_asnow_scus_65.png

Is it ever gonna make it inside 100 hours

If you look at recent winters.. probably not. I will believe it when I see it.

[Ralph's Weather]

18z GFS says, "Let's do two winter wx events in two weeks!" All kidding aside, the system we were tacking may have folded but there should be some other chances with cold air over the top and an active flow off the Pacific.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021020218/gfs_asnow_scus_65.png

Is it ever gonna make it inside 100 hours

If you look at recent winters.. probably not. I will believe it when I see it.

We just had a huge snow event though it missed the most populated areas of the state. It was amazingly well modeled at over a week out.

[hriverajr]

Is it ever gonna make it inside 100 hours

If you look at recent winters.. probably not. I will believe it when I see it.

We just had a huge snow event though it missed the most populated areas of the state. It was amazingly well modeled at over a week out.

I'm talking about temperatures in general and secondly I don't live in North Texas, or Dallas. Some of us live further south :p. I hope we get a good arctic front, but honestly when was the last time we had one in the heart of winter? They have been few and far between. It hasn't mattered if it was El Nino, La Nina, Neutral, or anything else. So I'll be happy when we get a major arctic front... but

[bubba hotep]

Is it ever gonna make it inside 100 hours

If you look at recent winters.. probably not. I will believe it when I see it.

We just had a huge snow event though it missed the most populated areas of the state. It was amazingly well modeled at over a week out.

Yea, the Euro locked in and was pretty steady. That was a fun system to track. We can still get winter storms in Texas and eventually we'll get a big N. TX winter storm.

[Brent]

If you look at recent winters.. probably not. I will believe it when I see it.

We just had a huge snow event though it missed the most populated areas of the state. It was amazingly well modeled at over a week out.

Yea, the Euro locked in and was pretty steady. That was a fun system to track. We can still get winter storms in Texas and eventually we'll get a big N. TX winter storm.

I know I drove to Waco for it but I still cant believe it was THAT close and missed. When I got into South Dallas and it was snowing I really thought the rest of the metro had a shot. I know the models had kind of shown a sharp cutoff but it was still shocking how quick it went from basically nothing to a full blown snowstorm

[Haris]

Very cold GFS ICON CMC tonight. Good trends! Watch them reverse tomorrow now haha. But in all seriousness we definitely are not out of the woods for any significant cold or winter weather *yet*.

[Ntxw]

Very cold GFS ICON CMC tonight. Good trends! Watch them reverse tomorrow now haha. But in all seriousness we definitely are not out of the woods for any significant cold or winter weather *yet*.

What is that like the 3rd wash and rinse in the past few days? Do they really know what's going to happen if it's back and forth?

[TheProfessor]

Doesn't surprise me that the models are wishy washy. There's high uncertainty in the NAO, AO, and PNA forecasts. That will definitely make the models a mess.

[harp]

The CMC is NUTS!!!!

[Brent]

honestly isn't the CMC always way too cold

though there's defintely been a cold trend tonight overall

[txtwister78]

Probably the best looking ensemble output I've seen from the GFS ENS if you want a "chance" for some winter precip (probably more ice than snow) next week. Noticed that the models actually stall the charge of arctic air south and keep it bottled up in the Midwest for a day or two before it makes it down into TX (model error perhaps due to shallow nature of airmass moving south)?

[Brent]

The euro is now highs near 60 Sunday and well into the 60s Monday then brings in the cold air late Monday into Tuesday again almost a week out

[txtwister78]

You can't miss with that map overall (day 6). Trend would be colder should this hold. Look at the source region and the blocking over the top.

[Brent]

Euro has snow on the beach next Thursday