2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[WaveBreaking]

18z GEFS and 12z EPS have a weak signal for even more Caribbean development in early December

[WaveBreaking]

18z GEFS and 12z EPS have a weak signal for even more Caribbean development in early December

https://i.imgur.com/1uXJ6HB.png
https://i.imgur.com/OMDlRJP.png

Signal's still there on both ensembles, and the 18z gfs develops a storm in the WCAR in fantasyland range.

[WeatherBoy2000]

18z GEFS and 12z EPS have a weak signal for even more Caribbean development in early December

https://i.imgur.com/1uXJ6HB.png
https://i.imgur.com/OMDlRJP.png

Signal's still there on both ensembles, and the 18z gfs develops a storm in the WCAR in fantasyland range.

It would be very unusual to have a storm develop in the Caribbean in the month of December, the last time it happened was back in 2003. However, this has been an unusual season, so why not?

[kevin]

06z GFS with another TS which eventually landfalls in CA.

[kevin]

There is now weak model support for a TC forming in the SWCar about 7 - 10 days from now near the end of November or the first week of December. Usually I'd attribute it to GEFS CAG bias, but the Euro also has some support. Perhaps we'll get a 0/10 lemon if the signal remains for another 2 - 3 days. Note that, depending on your exact definition, only 5 - 6 TCs have formed in the WCar in December (since 1851). So if this happens it would be a very rare occurrence.

GEFS
*13 out of 31 members (40%) develop a 30+ kt system with many more members showing a disturbance in the 20 - 30 kt range. One member reaches 60 - 70 kt for a short period of time.


Euro
*8 out of 51 members (16%) develop a 30+ kt system, 2 members (4%) show hurricane intensity.


00z ICON also shows a developing low near the end of the run.

[blp]

There is now weak model support for a TC forming in the SWCar about 7 - 10 days from now near the end of November or the first week of December. Usually I'd attribute it to GEFS CAG bias, but the Euro also has some support. Perhaps we'll get a 0/10 lemon if the signal remains for another 2 - 3 days. Note that, depending on your exact definition, only 5 - 6 TCs have formed in the WCar in December (since 1851). So if this happens it would be a very rare occurrence.

GEFS
*13 out of 31 members (40%) develop a 30+ kt system with many more members showing a disturbance in the 20 - 30 kt range. One member reaches 60 - 70 kt for a short period of time.
https://i.imgur.com/AsArWHJ.png

Euro
*8 out of 51 members (16%) develop a 30+ kt system, 2 members (4%) show hurricane intensity.
https://i.imgur.com/eJJUXbh.png

00z ICON also shows a developing low near the end of the run.

https://i.imgur.com/qOkxiSs.png

The fact the ICON shows something is worth a look. It has been stellar this year. Let's see if the 12z keeps it going.

[emeraldislenc]

I am in curaçao today and it is 91. So still warm in this part of the Caribbean. Heard it was approaching record heat for this date.

[Emmett_Brown]

Theres an uptick in activity on the 12Z GEFS ensemble, showing multiple 'canes in the NW Caribbean next week. Would you like that hurricane with stuffing?

[WeatherBoy2000]

Theres an uptick in activity on the 12Z GEFS ensemble, showing multiple 'canes in the NW Caribbean next week. Would you like that hurricane with stuffing?

It's probably just a ghost, but there is a very weak signal for something on the geps/eps as well.

[Teban54]

Today's 6z and 12z GFS continue to show a TS/Cat 1 in SW Caribbean: (12z is weaker)

[REDHurricane]

Surprised no one has posted about this yet, but GFS has been hinting at a subtropical storm forming over the central Atlantic around December 15-17th for the last day or two -- tonight's 00z run shows it strengthening below 990mb and hanging out in the ocean for a while:





There actually hasn't been a named Atlantic storm in December since... you guessed it, Zeta in 2005! Let's see if the 2024 season can add this to its list of "accomplishments" that we hadn't seen since then because why not at this point?

[OtakuForecaster]

Surprised no one has posted about this yet, but GFS has been hinting at a subtropical storm forming over the central Atlantic around December 15-17th for the last day or two -- tonight's 00z run shows it strengthening below 990mb and hanging out in the ocean for a while:

https://i.ibb.co/RS5VDvk/gfs-mslp-wind-eatl-56.png

https://i.ibb.co/yBMNdYG/gfs-z850-vort-eatl-56.png

There actually hasn't been a named Atlantic storm in December since... you guessed it, Zeta in 2005! Let's see if the 2024 season can add this to its list of "accomplishments" that we hadn't seen since then because why not at this point?

Small correction; the last December storm was actually the unnamed subtropical storm of 2013 that the NHC operationally didn't name! Would be Nestor.

That's interesting though. Hadn't noticed that. I had kinda taken my eye off the Atlantic after Sara dissipated.

[Category5Kaiju]

Surprised no one has posted about this yet, but GFS has been hinting at a subtropical storm forming over the central Atlantic around December 15-17th for the last day or two -- tonight's 00z run shows it strengthening below 990mb and hanging out in the ocean for a while:

https://i.ibb.co/RS5VDvk/gfs-mslp-wind-eatl-56.png

https://i.ibb.co/yBMNdYG/gfs-z850-vort-eatl-56.png

There actually hasn't been a named Atlantic storm in December since... you guessed it, Zeta in 2005! Let's see if the 2024 season can add this to its list of "accomplishments" that we hadn't seen since then because why not at this point?

Are we sure that that is indeed a subtropical or tropical entity? I feel like there were numerous times in the recent past when the models consistently showed some well-bundled feature like that in the Atlantic during the off-season, only for such to not end up as a subtropical/tropical storm (and instead be an extra tropical system or some other storm).

[WeatherBoy2000]

Surprised no one has posted about this yet, but GFS has been hinting at a subtropical storm forming over the central Atlantic around December 15-17th for the last day or two -- tonight's 00z run shows it strengthening below 990mb and hanging out in the ocean for a while:

https://i.ibb.co/RS5VDvk/gfs-mslp-wind-eatl-56.png

https://i.ibb.co/yBMNdYG/gfs-z850-vort-eatl-56.png

There actually hasn't been a named Atlantic storm in December since... you guessed it, Zeta in 2005! Let's see if the 2024 season can add this to its list of "accomplishments" that we hadn't seen since then because why not at this point?

Are we sure that that is indeed a subtropical or tropical entity? I feel like there were numerous times in the recent past when the models consistently showed some well-bundled feature like that in the Atlantic during the off-season, only for such to not end up as a subtropical/tropical storm (and instead be an extra tropical system or some other storm).

Yeah I've noticed this as well. In any case whatever the gfs was showing a few runs back is gone.

[REDHurricane]

Surprised no one has posted about this yet, but GFS has been hinting at a subtropical storm forming over the central Atlantic around December 15-17th for the last day or two -- tonight's 00z run shows it strengthening below 990mb and hanging out in the ocean for a while:

https://i.ibb.co/RS5VDvk/gfs-mslp-wind-eatl-56.png

https://i.ibb.co/yBMNdYG/gfs-z850-vort-eatl-56.png

There actually hasn't been a named Atlantic storm in December since... you guessed it, Zeta in 2005! Let's see if the 2024 season can add this to its list of "accomplishments" that we hadn't seen since then because why not at this point?

Small correction; the last December storm was actually the unnamed subtropical storm of 2013 that the NHC operationally didn't name! Would be Nestor.

That's interesting though. Hadn't noticed that. I had kinda taken my eye off the Atlantic after Sara dissipated.

That's why I said last named storm

[OtakuForecaster]

Surprised no one has posted about this yet, but GFS has been hinting at a subtropical storm forming over the central Atlantic around December 15-17th for the last day or two -- tonight's 00z run shows it strengthening below 990mb and hanging out in the ocean for a while:

https://i.ibb.co/RS5VDvk/gfs-mslp-wind-eatl-56.png

https://i.ibb.co/yBMNdYG/gfs-z850-vort-eatl-56.png

There actually hasn't been a named Atlantic storm in December since... you guessed it, Zeta in 2005! Let's see if the 2024 season can add this to its list of "accomplishments" that we hadn't seen since then because why not at this point?

Small correction; the last December storm was actually the unnamed subtropical storm of 2013 that the NHC operationally didn't name! Would be Nestor.

That's interesting though. Hadn't noticed that. I had kinda taken my eye off the Atlantic after Sara dissipated.

That's why I said last named storm

hehe, fair enough. I've gotten too used to using Phil's definition of named storm.

[Hurricane2022]

The latest GFS runs shows that a possible subtropical system should occur between December 20 - 22 north of the MDR. Euro also shows this system, but a bit weaker. Icon also shows a decent vortex in this same region. I'm surprised (but not too much) that the NHC hasn't given this the attention it deserves yet.

[StormWeather]

The latest GFS runs shows that a possible subtropical system should occur between December 20 - 22 north of the MDR. Euro also shows this system, but a bit weaker. Icon also shows a decent vortex in this same region. I'm surprised (but not too much) that the NHC hasn't given this the attention it deserves yet.

That low is coming together decently right now, but the convection isn’t the greatest. Whether it will become a subtropical system or not if up for grabs.