NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1983193203160576235

[Michele B]

Wow, it's coming ashore exactly where Josh Morgerman is positioned. We might get historic data from his measurements.

But he doesn't have a live feed up?

[Ed_2001]

Wind on the Treasure Beach doesnt look as bad as I expect, it narrowly missed the dreaded Eastern inner eyewall due to the northward jog.
Josh's location in Crawford will get the full brunt

Yeah from the livecam they're clearly in the moat right now, can't fathom even that astounding footage from 20 minutes ago was only its nascent outer eyewall. I wouldn't say they are fully out of the woods yet though.

[edu2703]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1983195190656676007

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://x.com/iCyclone/status/1983195190656676007

I remember when Ginger Zee (ABC meteorologist) covered Michael’s landfall in Mexico Beach back in 2018 and specifically described how her ears were painful and popping.

That was 919 mbar.

Imagine 892 mbar. Jesus.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Josh M may be right in the E Eyewall right now. I'd estimate winds of 165 kts and 890 mbar now as the peak. Perhaps a case for 170 kts could also be made, but I don't feel very comfortable with that estimate. Anyway, this will be a storm to be remembered for centuries.

You mean western eyewall?

[CrazyC83]

Josh M may be right in the E Eyewall right now. I'd estimate winds of 165 kts and 890 mbar now as the peak. Perhaps a case for 170 kts could also be made, but I don't feel very comfortable with that estimate. Anyway, this will be a storm to be remembered for centuries.

You mean western eyewall?

The north jog just now means he may get the absolute center.

[GCANE]

Looks like it is wobbling to the west as eyewall runs onshore.

[Nuno]

I feel so anxious just following this. May god be with them.

[michelinj]

The treasure beach feed is definitely not a loop, it just moved and panned around

[ATDoel]

Josh M may be right in the E Eyewall right now. I'd estimate winds of 165 kts and 890 mbar now as the peak. Perhaps a case for 170 kts could also be made, but I don't feel very comfortable with that estimate. Anyway, this will be a storm to be remembered for centuries.

You mean western eyewall?

The north jog just now means he may get the absolute center.

Where is he? Hope he gets nailed, not wishing injury to him of course.

[Blown Away]

She is coming onto shore!

[Travorum]

You mean western eyewall?

The north jog just now means he may get the absolute center.

Where is he? Hope he gets nailed, not wishing injury to him of course.

Josh is at the pinned location below:

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1983195992360136880

[tallywx]

Center of the eye may miss Josh to the west.

[imgur]https://imgur.com/a/LKuCdtq[/imgur]

[ATDoel]

hurricanes always follow the path of least resistance, considering the tallest mountains in Jamaica are on the central/east side it isn't too surprising Melissa is scooting NNW.

[Exalt]

Anyone else think this thing could landfall in Cuba as a strong cat 5?

[ATDoel]

Anyone else think this thing could landfall in Cuba as a strong cat 5?

I think the chance is low, most likely is strong 4 / weak 5. Jamaica will do damage to it, but the west side is flatter and the core is really compact so it may not be much.

[aspen]

Anyone else think this thing could landfall in Cuba as a strong cat 5?

I doubt it, ~5 hours over Jamaica should disrupt the core enough to prevent a Cat 5. However, a 4 is probably likely.

[NotAHurricane]

Anyone else think this thing could landfall in Cuba as a strong cat 5?

Mid-range cat 4 at minimum, but at 185mph, I think hitting Cuba as a cat 5 is not out of the question anymore.