ATL: IRENE - Models

[ALhurricane]

The main reason for the large shift east in the model guidance is in large part due to the the LLC reforming so far to the north. That is why looking too closely at the guidance prior to the storm becoming established is often a recipe for nothing but heartburn. I think we are going to begin zoning in on the main threat area from the Florida east coast up to SC/NC. This will be not a NE recurve given the trough lifting out and ridging building back in. Intensity is a whole other matter as we will have to see how much of the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola is traverses.

[Blown Away]

Where did the latest ECMWF go?

[jlauderdal]

The Carolinas are in the bulls eye now, what a difference from 24 hrs ago!

exactly why being in the bullseye at 5 days is a good place to be

[plasticup]

Could this be a rare east coast (north of Florida) major hurricane? There's always the possibility of a track further west again but we should see more accuracy today than yesterday so maybe S.C. will be the target.

Yes. It certainly could be.

[AdamFirst]

Where did the latest ECMWF go?

ECM stays "offshore"...says a cat 2-low end cat 3 hurricane missing Palm Beach County by 20 miles or so. Hikes north towards South Carolina as a major.

[KWT]

The main reason for the large shift east in the model guidance is in large part due to the the LLC reforming so far to the north. That is why looking too closely at the guidance prior to the storm becoming established is often a recipe for nothing but heartburn. I think we are going to begin zoning in on the main threat area from the Florida east coast up to SC/NC. This will be not a NE recurve given the trough lifting out and ridging building back in. Intensity is a whole other matter as we will have to see how much of the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola is traverses.

I 100% agree with this post, the set-up suggested by the models is not really condusive for a recurve as we usually see. the CMC is further east but I suspect thats more of a function of a sharper turn then a true recurve to the NE.

Models coming into good agreement on a major east coast threat and the bigges threat overall since probably Ike in 2008...

[Rgv20]

TVCN has the center of Irene 75miles east of Miami by 96hrs.....way to close for comfort.

[xironman]

if it landfalls in SC at that intensity can you imagine it riding that East coast...probably still be a hurricane up in NYC...

Euro has it at 987 in RI.

[KWT]

TVCN has the center of Irene 75miles east of Miami by 96hrs.....way to close for comfort.

Thats certainly very close to land, far too close to discount a motion a little further west.

[jinftl]

20 miles offshore...in other words, western eyewall scraping the PB county coast. ouch

Where did the latest ECMWF go?

ECM stays "offshore"...says a cat 2-low end cat 3 hurricane missing Palm Beach County by 20 miles or so. Hikes north towards South Carolina as a major.

[NDG]

TVCN has the center of Irene 75miles east of Miami by 96hrs.....way to close for comfort.

Yeah, and the NHC's track will follow suit inching in closer to it, I don't think they want to move the track too far east just yet, it will give eastern FL a false sense of security at this point if they do so.

[southerngale]

Reminder: Please upload images before posting them!

We have a thread as a sticky asking everyone to do this.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I knew when the cone was on me this far out it would't hit. All I'm worried about is the eye. I don't care to get a little wooping. Actually the track further east is bad for the whole east coast. Not a good scenario. But if it keeps trending east and not flip-flop. Ya never know. Could be a fish.

[OuterBanker]

Granted I've only checked a few pages back in this thread only. But I haven't seen any posting by Cycloneye. It looks like he's about to get nailed. Any word on conditions there?

[HURRICANELONNY]

Probably getting prepared. He could get a Cat1.

[jinftl]

Given the 200-250 mile margin of error 4-5 days out, I am going to go out on a limb and say that Florida will still be in the cone at 5pm.

TVCN has the center of Irene 75miles east of Miami by 96hrs.....way to close for comfort.

Yeah, and the NHC's track will follow suit inching in closer to it, I don't think they want to move the track too far east just yet, it will give eastern FL a false sense of security at this point if they do so.

[Rgv20]

TVCN has the center of Irene 75miles east of Miami by 96hrs.....way to close for comfort.

Thats certainly very close to land, far too close to discount a motion a little further west.

And about 45 miles on the closest approach to West Palm Beach.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Given the 200-250 mile margin of error 4-5 days out, I am going to go out on a limb and say that Florida will still be in the cone at 5pm.

TVCN has the center of Irene 75miles east of Miami by 96hrs.....way to close for comfort.

Yeah, and the NHC's track will follow suit inching in closer to it, I don't think they want to move the track too far east just yet, it will give eastern FL a false sense of security at this point if they do so.

True. The cone will shift east. But most of Florida will still be in it.

[ndale]

Granted I've only checked a few pages back in this thread only. But I haven't seen any posting by Cycloneye. It looks like he's about to get nailed. Any word on conditions there?

He just posted at 2:04 in the discussion thread.

[KWT]

Given the 200-250 mile margin of error 4-5 days out, I am going to go out on a limb and say that Florida will still be in the cone at 5pm.

Yep and for good reason as well given we are still a good 4-5 days away yet and having such a close call always can lead to some forecasting uncertainties.