ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[brunota2003]

If you have a guess as to what Recon will find during their trip through Ernesto...then vote here:
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=113247

NOTE: This is the max wind speed that recon will find *at FLIGHT level* the entire mission! Not the first pass!

Also, this was supposed to close at 7 pm...so if you go there after 7 pm, please don't vote!

7 pm EDT

There were no options for anyone (even the admins/mods) to adjust it to 7 pm.

[Dean4Storms]

The other thing to remember is that its inflow probably is being a little bit disrupted from SA, once it clears around 75W and the fetch from water becomes even larger I think that will help to reduce the plusing nature of the convection. The dry air to the west I think will stop it from really strengthening at a quick rate for the next 24-36hrs but after that I think we'll have lift-off.

Mind Reader and if you're reading my mind you got problems friend!!

[hurricanes1234]

This is where Ernesto starts to impress me. It has strengthened to 60 mph and its pressure has fallen, however, I still find it hard to believe that Florence is more intense than Ernesto.

Now that's funny!

[Dave]

Is that 7 pm EDT, CDT, MDT, PDT, Alaskan or Hawaiian time?

[brunota2003]

Iraq time! EDT

[Dean4Storms]

So what are the chances of this storm coming closer to Jamaica than the official track is predicting?

I'd say 60% Not-40% Yes........ It's really held this course since it developed and I think it gets near the SW periphery of the ridge once it gets west of Jamaica.

[KWT]

The other thing to remember is that its inflow probably is being a little bit disrupted from SA, once it clears around 75W and the fetch from water becomes even larger I think that will help to reduce the plusing nature of the convection. The dry air to the west I think will stop it from really strengthening at a quick rate for the next 24-36hrs but after that I think we'll have lift-off.

Mind Reader and if you're reading my mind you got problems friend!!

Thats uncanny!
I was just looking at the loops and noticed that Ernesto is now probably making its closest approach to land for the next 2-3 days. I think the W.Caribbean will once again sprinkle its magic on a TC.

[Caribwxgirl]

So what are the chances of this storm coming closer to Jamaica than the official track is predicting?

I'd say 60% Not-40% Yes........ It's really held this course since it developed and I think it gets near the SW periphery of the ridge once it gets west of Jamaica.

Thanks cause we really don't need it any closer than that official track at all!

[Dave]

Iraq time! EDT

Then 1 day was a perfect choice for the length of it. lol

[ROCK]

the problem I have with that map is look at the weakness in the ridge....I mean you could drive a few million buses through that thing. YOU are going to tell me a TC will not respond to that?

[Dean4Storms]

the problem I have with that map is look at the weakness in the ridge....I mean you could drive a few million buses through that thing. YOU are going to tell me a TC will not respond to that?

Agree, I'm wondering if most of the guidance caught the ECMWF bug that had it missing the weakness with Debby!

[cycloneye]

The outflow is turning very good.

http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn39 ... -57-66.png

Luis, where'd you get that image? I love it.

I found it in another forum. Yes,is a great shot of it.

[KWT]

The thing is the ECM probably doesn't even have a TC by the Yucatan landfall (its a strong wave, maybe a borderline TD) and given the ECM and the other models have hardly done a good job thus far with the intensity of Ernesto I'm not sure the models have all that good grip on the strength of the system.

Of course things can change and who knows!

[ROCK]

18Z NAM really no change from the 12Z....maybe a smidge left...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[ozonepete]

THAT my friends is on the cusp of hurricane status. The debate is over IMO, and STILL consistent with the GFDL.

Honestly, I really don't see this as being the case. Looks like a moderate intensity tropical storm, as it's being called.

You are right, of course. I guess a lot of people are just feeling the excitement. It surely doesn't look like a hurricane yet. But it sure looks like the diurnal min is over (right on schedule since the sun is setting down there now) and the convection is starting to burst over the center again. It also really looks like this convective blowup will be quite impressive tonight since more defined banding is starting to occur and it's moving over ever warmer SSTs with shear really dropping. So in effect it has "that look" of a TS about to take off, and that probably also makes people prematurely call it a hurricane. In my mind this will make hurricane sometime tomorrow morning. I think all systems are go now.

Oh, and you can put me down as one who thinks this will be a major hurricane in the western Caribbean.

[wxwatcher1999]

rock.... do you think these models will start to swing right again and if so when do you think it will happen?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 042203
AF307 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 01 20120804
215500 1742N 06448W 0143 00013 0161 +295 +222 360000 000 /// /// 03
215530 1742N 06448W 0145 00010 0159 +295 +223 360000 000 /// /// 03
215600 1742N 06448W 0142 00013 0158 +295 +247 360000 000 /// /// 03
215630 1742N 06448W 0148 00013 0163 +298 +271 360000 000 /// /// 03
215700 1742N 06448W 0148 00016 0165 +300 +287 360000 000 /// /// 03
215730 1742N 06448W 0146 00014 0164 +299 +280 360000 000 /// /// 03
215800 1742N 06448W 0143 00013 0161 +295 +272 360000 000 /// /// 03
215830 1742N 06448W 0145 00013 0161 +294 +279 360000 000 /// /// 03
215900 1742N 06448W 0146 00011 0159 +295 +288 360000 000 /// /// 03
215930 1742N 06448W 0143 00012 0158 +293 +292 360000 000 /// /// 03
220000 1742N 06448W 0142 00012 0157 +290 +290 360000 000 /// /// 05
220030 1742N 06448W 0140 00014 0157 +290 +290 360000 000 /// /// 05
220100 1742N 06448W 0138 00016 0156 +290 +290 360000 000 /// /// 05
220130 1742N 06449W 0135 00018 //// +280 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
220200 1742N 06449W 0133 00021 //// +280 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05
220230 1742N 06449W 0126 00022 0152 +290 +290 360000 000 /// /// 05
220300 1742N 06449W 0128 00023 0156 +290 +290 360000 000 /// /// 05
220330 1742N 06449W 0125 00023 0156 +270 +270 111008 015 /// /// 05
220400 1742N 06448W 0011 00119 0147 +270 +243 110021 024 /// /// 06
220430 1742N 06447W 9766 00337 0150 +248 +234 113020 021 /// /// 03
$$
;

AF 307 - Take off for T.S. Ernesto

[Shuriken]

The other thing to remember is that its inflow probably is being a little bit disrupted from SA, once it clears around 75W and the fetch from water becomes even larger I think that will help to reduce the plusing nature of the convection.

Pulsing is a feature of almost all TS as they approach Hurr; it's IMO less related to outer inflow and more related to still-disorganized centers and "throat-clearing".

Given a placement near the middle of the chute down the Caribbean, land disruption of inflow hundreds of miles from the center might inhibit a cat4 from reaching cat5, but it shouldn't inhibit a TS from reaching cat1.

[Dave]

6:06 PM EDT - AF 307 - Take off for T.S. Ernesto

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

THAT my friends is on the cusp of hurricane status. The debate is over IMO, and STILL consistent with the GFDL.

Honestly, I really don't see this as being the case. Looks like a moderate intensity tropical storm, as it's being called.

You are right, of course. I guess a lot of people are just feeling the excitement. It surely doesn't look like a hurricane yet. But it sure looks like the diurnal min is over (right on schedule since the sun is setting down there now) and the convection is starting to burst over the center again. It also really looks like this convective blowup will be quite impressive tonight since more defined banding is starting to occur and it's moving over ever warmer SSTs with shear really dropping. So in effect it has "that look" of a TS about to take off, and that probably also makes people prematurely call it a hurricane. In my mind this will make hurricane sometime tomorrow morning. I think all systems are go now.

Oh, and you can put me down as one who thinks this will be a major hurricane in the western Caribbean.

In reality, it truly does appear to be at hurricane intensity. UW-CIMSS ADT agrees with this.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 987.6mb/ 67.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.1 4.1 4.1