ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT11 KNHC 100246
97779 02354 40168 6550/ 33500 12043 0605/ /3210
RMK AF306 0303A CHANTAL OB 07
LAST REPORT
;

Mission Over...

Well...

[ROCK]

center has to be close to that new ball of convection....

[artist]

may be having some trouble?

[Aric Dunn]

000
URNT11 KNHC 100246
97779 02354 40168 6550/ 33500 12043 0605/ /3210
RMK AF306 0303A CHANTAL OB 07
LAST REPORT
;

Mission Over...

really............................................................................ quick someone give me a paddle and dingy...

[brunota2003]

Looks like they're done, last report came in (Dave posted it).

[AJC3]

Maybe Ted Striker was the pilot for that last recon flight?

Seriously though, it does seem odd that they didn't try to go farther SW.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
1100 PM AST TUE JUL 09 2013

...CENTER OF CHANTAL PASSING SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 66.2W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARAHONA TO SAMANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI
* TURKS AND CAICOS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF CHANTAL WILL PASS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT...AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR EASTERN CUBA EARLY THURSDAY AND
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN OR CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE CHANTAL
REACHES HISPANIOLA...BUT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THAT TIME.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN HAITI BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE...ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES...WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY THE FOLLOWING AMOUNTS ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...

SOUTHERN AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA...2 TO 4 FT
REMAINDER OF TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT

RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN



TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
1100 PM AST TUE JUL 09 2013

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF CHANTAL BECAME LESS ORGANIZED DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT THERE HAS BEEN A BURST
OF DEEP CONVECTION RECENTLY NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THE PLANE
HAS HAD DIFFICULTY FIXING A CENTER...WITH THE WIND FIELD RESEMBLING
AN OPEN WAVE RATHER THAN A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...AIR SPACE
RESTRICTIONS PREVENTED THE PLANE FROM SAMPLING THE AREA FARTHER
SOUTH...SO IT IS INCONCLUSIVE AS TO WHETHER A CLOSED CIRCULATION
STILL EXISTS. AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO SUGGEST THAT SOME WEAKENING HAS
TAKEN PLACE...WITH PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR
WINDS OF 50 AND 42 KT...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS.

THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION OF CHANTAL COULD SUGGEST THAT WESTERLY LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE CYCLONE...AS SHOWN BY SHIPS AND
UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THE SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO THE CENTER MOVING OVER OR NEAR HISPANIOLA.
INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THAT ISLAND SHOULD
DISRUPT THE CIRCULATION ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OR
EVEN POSSIBLY DISSIPATION. WHATEVER REMAINS OF CHANTAL AFTER THAT
WILL ENCOUNTER HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE GFS SUGGESTS A DECOUPLING OF THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CENTERS...WHILE ECMWF MAINTAINS MORE VERTICAL
INTEGRITY. IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES INTERACTION WITH LAND AND
STRONG SHEAR...IT COULD REGENERATE OR RESTRENGTHEN LATE IN THE
PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY PERIOD.

ABSENT RELIABLE CENTER FIXES...THE SPEEDY INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...
285/25...OF CHANTAL IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. BASED ON AVAILABLE
AIRCRAFT DATA THE CENTER IS RELOCATED A BIT TO THE SOUTH RELATIVE
TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WHICH HAS A RESULTED IN SOUTHWARD AND
WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS. A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GUIDING CHANTAL RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
INTO FLORIDA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE TRACK OF CHANTAL BENDING
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AFTER 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST LEANS ON THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS A
SHALLOWER CYCLONE BEYOND 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 15.3N 66.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 16.7N 69.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 18.6N 72.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 20.6N 75.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER LAND
48H 12/0000Z 22.6N 76.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 13/0000Z 26.5N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 29.0N 79.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 31.0N 81.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[Dave]

Hey artist, I can pick up images if you want to take a break, or you can continue. Just let me know if/when you need a break.

Thanks Jeremy. I'm good until 11:15 if you could take over then.


I am still waiting on obs 23 image.

Missions Over Artist...last obs was #24

[floridasun78]

ok system is open wave their didnt report pressure for CHANTAL

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 66.2W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

[artist]

missing 23 obs in image, includes 24 on way home -

[floridasun78]

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 66.2W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

ohhhhh did their find center?

[Aric Dunn]

Maybe Ted Striker was the pilot for that last recon flight?

whats wrong? ... I have a drinking problem...

or maybe it was all the roger.. roger ... whats your vector victor and whats your clearance Clarence.. they might have been confused about that..

[Evil Jeremy]

Early conclusion. Plane was supposed to observe Chantal until 2:00am Eastern

[Hurricane Alexis]

I think that's record speed for a TC in the deep tropics.

[ozonepete]

has wxman57 talked to Jim? lol

Lol, great to see you Sandy. I think they're stuck in conference.

[rockyman]

Another shift to west:

5pm 120 hour: 31.1/80

11pm 120 hour: 31/81

[floridasun78]

when next plane? maybe their wait untill that plane or want see blob get bigger over night and see center move under it

[jinftl]

Could bypass most of hispanola - especially mountainous terrain over interior if any additional track shifts west

[Evil Jeremy]

Juicy bits from the discussion:

THE PLANE
HAS HAD DIFFICULTY FIXING A CENTER...WITH THE WIND FIELD RESEMBLING
AN OPEN WAVE RATHER THAN A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...AIR SPACE
RESTRICTIONS PREVENTED THE PLANE FROM SAMPLING THE AREA FARTHER
SOUTH...SO IT IS INCONCLUSIVE AS TO WHETHER A CLOSED CIRCULATION
STILL EXISTS.

IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES INTERACTION WITH LAND AND
STRONG SHEAR...IT COULD REGENERATE OR RESTRENGTHEN LATE IN THE
PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY PERIOD.

A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GUIDING CHANTAL RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
INTO FLORIDA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE TRACK OF CHANTAL BENDING
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AFTER 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST LEANS ON THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS A
SHALLOWER CYCLONE BEYOND 48 HOURS.