Texas Winter 2025-2026

[orangeblood]

The warm nose is at the 700 mb level during peak precip on Saturday according to the Euro, thin enough that it could be overcome or majority sleet

Really cold at 925mb though


700 mb

[Brent]

18 inches of snow in Southern Oklahoma on the Euro

Is this really happening

The qpf trend is more shocking if anything. Within just a few cycles from barely anything to near record anomalies for the period.

Seriously yesterday morning I was looking at half the ensembles without even a flake here. Not even remotely feeling it

This is just unbelievable trends. I never imagined it could flip like this that quick

[orangeblood]

Yikes hope that warm nose isn't took thick

[gpsnowman]

That subtropical jet on the Euro...I wouldn't be surprised in the coming days the ULL out to the west trend is way more amped...firehose of moisture.

Friend of mine on Discord just posted this, and I had to share it here because good god almighty
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkMxP.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkMxP.gif

Good grief that is s**t ton of moisture.

[wxman57]

Here's a verification of all the model predictions for Houston with a plot of the actual observed temps (red line with boxes). CMC is in blue and dashed blue. UKMET (red line) was too warm. GFS (green) was a bit too warm at the start, but settled in close to reality. ICON (gray line) was also way too cold, but nothing could match the Canadian for being too cold. I saw similar results in each model run and also during the 2021 freeze/ice storm. Toss out the Canadian and ICON here in Houston, at least.

https://wxman57.com/images/Jan2025.jpg

[wxman22]

If the Euro verified we would have an ice storm with a snowstorm on top of the ice here.

[snownado]

That subtropical jet on the Euro...I wouldn't be surprised in the coming days the ULL out to the west trend is way more amped...firehose of moisture.

Friend of mine on Discord just posted this, and I had to share it here because good god almighty
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkMxP.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkMxP.gif

Disgusting...

[Quixotic]

Freaking warm nose. I hate it so so much.

[rwfromkansas]

I hope for a deeper cold layer. Or enough heavy sleet to cool things down. We need a bit of a southern trend here in DFW to help with that. But my word, the moisture is insane. This is a MAJOR storm.

I just don't want what happened a few years ago where I was hoping for a change from sleet to snow that only came at the very end.

[hurricane2025]

Se tx is safe once again

[BAY29]

Se tx is safe once again

For now

[snownado]

Se tx is safe once again

Please stop...

[bubba hotep]

Euro is probably too warm, but this QPF is going to cause trouble with these temps.

[Brazoria979cnty]

Se tx is safe once again

Please stop...

were still a long ways away lol nothing is set in stone

[DukeMu]

This setup looks mainly ice/ sleet, snow looks to stay in north texas as the most likely outcome, though thats subject to change

Gotta get rid of that warm nose.

[Iceresistance]

KFOR has now forecasted 13 inches of snow for me

[Stratton23]

hurricane2025 not even close, the Euro is right on the foot step of se texas / houston metro with freezing rain , everyone needs to be on guard

[DukeMu]

Cpv17 I dont know about that, models are extremely close to showing significant icing in the houston metro, id probably prepare for freezing rain on saturday, closer to the coast it might be just all cold rain

I’m just saying as of right now I’m not seeing much of an event for the Houston area. Could easily change.

Seen this song and dance before millions of times. SETX ends up getting the worst of it, from an icing perspective.

Those of us in Western and Northern SETX probably see the bullseye.

College Station will be ground zero for a real mix.

[DukeMu]

After Houston, Austin is the most important city in Texas. I know, I spent 6 of the best years (I changed from EE to Petroleum Engineering and was working on an MS when a Gentleman's C in 'Systems of Linear Differential Equations' told me it wouldn't work) drinking beer, hanging at Crown and Anchor or Posse East or on 6th Street (I could drink, I did 6 years in the Navy because I was poor) or just drinking from kegs of Shiner. Anyway. Sleet and freezing rain on the hills W of the Balcones Escarpment would be a driving disaster but that looks like most of it. However, looking at the GFS sounding I did find a sounding with a saturated dendritic layer and temps near or below freezing in the entire sounding.

https://i.imgur.com/Fsmk1ff.png

Woah. Cool that column. Better than freezing rain.

[cheezyWXguy]

After Houston, Austin is the most important city in Texas.

So I see we're just talking to be talking now...

I get you. My family lives in Bedford but winter precip happens annually in the Metroplex. Unless ICON verifies DFW should get significant snow a/o sleet regardless. Your second most important city in Texas?


I see people loving the ICON when it supports a TC landfall where someone expects/hopes it makes landfall. Indeed, it did Beryl better than most global guidance and the Germans should know winter weather. Lucy still has a chance to fake the field goal, pass the ball, and get intercepted.

https://i.imgur.com/U8dN8UF.png
https://i.imgur.com/u13ewj7.png

I like the icon in both tropical and winter weather, but as just another tool in the tool box. It has scored some big wins in the past few years but also completely struck out. With a turbulent record like that, it’s hard for me to use it to make or break hopes but it’s always worth taking into account