ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

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gatorcane
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Re: Re:

#2561 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 21, 2011 7:56 pm

HurricaneBelle wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:
Jevo wrote:The one thing Ive learned over the years is that if your a direct hit at the end of the forecast period.. Hold off putting the shutters up.. I saw my house here in Fort Laud in the position this morning.. and if models hold true.. my theory is still going to hold true

Oh and just so I dont get flamed.. If you're anywhere in the cone always be alert and pay attention to local and state authorities. Make sure your hurricane plan is ready to go and dont sink your patio furniture in the pool.. and all that other good advice

VVVV Disclaimer below VVVV


While you don't need to put your shutters up yet, SFL is no longer at the end of the forecast cone. Were within 4 days. If when you wake up in the morning, and SFL is still in the cone, thats about 3 1/2 days away, and time to seriously start getting ready.

Problem is, ever since Ike missed us, many people I know are more hesistant to prepare for big threats, not wanting to go through the entire preparation process again when the system might miss.


You'd think people in SFL would be respectful of the 5-day track since Wilma went there just as predicted (albeit a day later due to getting hung up near Cozumel):

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/gr ... 2405W5.GIF


Yeah and notice Wilma ended up On the Yucatan, it got further west than the models thought even with a big trough digging.
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#2562 Postby Dave » Sun Aug 21, 2011 7:57 pm

Image
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#2563 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Aug 21, 2011 7:58 pm

Pretty good web briefing here on Irene and the setup!


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/jax/vBrie ... /index.htm
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Re: Re:

#2564 Postby StarmanHDB » Sun Aug 21, 2011 7:59 pm

HurricaneBelle wrote:You'd think people in SFL would be respectful of the 5-day track since Wilma went there just as predicted (albeit a day later due to getting hung up near Cozumel):

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/gr ... 2405W5.GIF


You'd be amazed to hear all of the "those things never hit us" comments amongst the SFL population! I guess that it's the old-school mindset that if you never think about issues, those issues never happen. Not a great way to go through life, huh?
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#2565 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sun Aug 21, 2011 8:00 pm

Looks like Irene is trying to develop a CDO:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Recon

#2566 Postby Macrocane » Sun Aug 21, 2011 8:01 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 220059
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 18 20110822
004900 1655N 06342W 8433 01573 0105 +165 +164 173028 028 022 000 00
004930 1656N 06342W 8433 01572 0103 +168 +160 172029 029 022 000 00
005000 1658N 06342W 8433 01570 0103 +165 +164 170030 030 022 000 00
005030 1700N 06343W 8429 01574 0102 +166 +159 170032 032 023 000 00
005100 1702N 06343W 8436 01568 0105 +165 +160 170031 031 023 000 00
005130 1704N 06343W 8433 01571 0104 +165 +158 171032 033 024 000 00
005200 1706N 06343W 8432 01573 0105 +165 +158 173033 033 026 000 00
005230 1708N 06344W 8434 01571 0105 +165 +158 173033 034 026 000 00
005300 1710N 06344W 8434 01570 0104 +165 +156 173034 035 027 000 00
005330 1712N 06344W 8431 01574 0103 +165 +156 171035 035 029 000 00
005400 1714N 06344W 8435 01567 0104 +165 +159 168035 036 029 000 00
005430 1715N 06345W 8433 01569 0104 +165 +160 167035 035 029 000 00
005500 1717N 06345W 8436 01568 0103 +165 +157 167036 036 029 000 00
005530 1719N 06345W 8432 01570 0103 +165 +157 168037 037 029 000 00
005600 1721N 06346W 8433 01569 0103 +165 +158 166038 038 029 000 00
005630 1723N 06346W 8433 01569 0103 +162 +160 165038 039 030 000 00
005700 1725N 06346W 8433 01568 0104 +160 //// 162039 040 030 000 01
005730 1727N 06346W 8433 01567 0104 +160 +158 159040 040 030 001 00
005800 1729N 06347W 8432 01568 0102 +161 +156 158040 040 031 002 00
005830 1731N 06347W 8434 01566 0102 +161 +159 158040 041 033 002 00
$$
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2567 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Aug 21, 2011 8:01 pm

Wow, deep reds all over the place! Earlier I commented on wondering why this isn't getting going very fast and skeptical if it would reach hurricane strength before lanfall in Hispanolia. Now I'm thinking it might make a run for hurricane status by morning....

Nice Deep Reds on this latest image.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg
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Re: Re:

#2568 Postby Tampa_God » Sun Aug 21, 2011 8:02 pm

StarmanHDB wrote:You'd be amazed to hear all of the "those things never hit us" comments amongst the SFL population! I guess that it's the old-school mindset that if you never think about issues, those issues never happen. Not a great way to go through life, huh?

Many here have that mindset or just a short term mindset when they can't remember Charley from '04.
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#2569 Postby Dave » Sun Aug 21, 2011 8:02 pm

From one of our members* here at s2k..

Conditions at takeoff weren't too bad. Pressure of 996.5mb with winds falling from 25-30 mph to 5 to 10 mph in the center.
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#2570 Postby Dave » Sun Aug 21, 2011 8:04 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2571 Postby JtSmarts » Sun Aug 21, 2011 8:05 pm

HWRF (off Dr Ryan Maue's site) pretty close to my track and intensity as per Weatherbell posts. http://t.co/ZFE6mW5


Note: I am further west in the Bahamas BUT EAST OF FLA without FLA landfall
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#2572 Postby cpdaman » Sun Aug 21, 2011 8:07 pm

A certain met posts that the 500mb ridge sample this am near bermuda was 30 dm stronger than modeld and may lead to more west motion over 24-36hrs
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Re:

#2573 Postby bella_may » Sun Aug 21, 2011 8:09 pm

cpdaman wrote:A certain met posts that the 500mb ridge sample this am near bermuda was 30 dm stronger than modeld and may lead to more west motion over 24-36hrs

who?
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#2574 Postby sfwx » Sun Aug 21, 2011 8:10 pm

Starting my 24th year in the classroom tomorrow. Can you guess what my 4th graders will learn first? Hurricane tracking of course!! :D

Eric
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Re:

#2575 Postby BatzVI » Sun Aug 21, 2011 8:10 pm

Nno
Gustywind wrote:Little closeup of Irene approaching very dangerously PR. Be safe and dry Cycloneye :).
Image


I'm still in the "black" part of that...doing okay though..
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Recon

#2576 Postby Macrocane » Sun Aug 21, 2011 8:11 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 220109
AF302 0309A IRENE HDOB 19 20110822
005900 1733N 06347W 8434 01567 0103 +159 //// 159039 040 034 001 01
005930 1735N 06348W 8432 01567 //// +143 //// 159039 040 034 004 01
010000 1737N 06348W 8430 01570 0102 +162 +159 158039 040 035 002 00
010030 1739N 06348W 8435 01565 0101 +163 +163 157040 041 035 002 00
010100 1741N 06348W 8428 01574 0099 +167 +155 156041 041 034 000 00
010130 1743N 06349W 8434 01566 0100 +165 +158 155042 042 034 000 00
010200 1745N 06349W 8433 01568 0100 +165 +159 153042 043 034 001 00
010230 1747N 06349W 8433 01567 0101 +165 +156 152042 042 034 000 00
010300 1749N 06350W 8433 01566 0099 +165 +159 153042 042 033 002 00
010330 1751N 06350W 8433 01564 0100 +164 +158 152043 043 034 009 00
010400 1753N 06350W 8422 01576 0099 +151 //// 154044 046 043 022 01
010430 1755N 06350W 8456 01541 //// +136 //// 143039 042 042 015 01
010500 1757N 06351W 8425 01572 //// +140 //// 145040 041 033 010 01
010530 1758N 06351W 8433 01565 0100 +160 //// 142040 041 034 002 01
010600 1800N 06351W 8436 01563 0097 +165 +159 141039 040 030 000 00
010630 1802N 06352W 8433 01566 0096 +167 +157 144040 040 028 000 00
010700 1804N 06352W 8432 01569 0098 +165 +158 141041 041 029 000 00
010730 1806N 06352W 8436 01562 0099 +165 +152 139043 044 029 000 00
010800 1808N 06352W 8429 01570 0101 +162 +153 138043 045 033 000 00
010830 1810N 06353W 8434 01565 0102 +160 //// 138042 043 034 001 01
$$
;
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#2577 Postby Dave » Sun Aug 21, 2011 8:13 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2578 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Aug 21, 2011 8:13 pm

My guess for the 11pm cone is that days 1-4 are roughly the same, with Irene just off the coast of Fort Lauderdale on day 4, but the day 5 point a good amount east of the 5pm cone, basically tightly hugging the east florida coastline.

Not saying I think this is what will hapen, just what the NHC will say at 11.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2579 Postby Sanibel » Sun Aug 21, 2011 8:14 pm

Eye tightened way up on radar.


Still 280 degrees and into Puerto Rico...
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Re:

#2580 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Aug 21, 2011 8:15 pm

sfwx wrote:Starting my 24th year in the classroom tomorrow. Can you guess what my 4th graders will learn first? Hurricane tracking of course!! :D

Eric


What school are you at Eric? My little guy starts Kindergarten tomorrow at Windmill Point. He's been following along with me on Storm2k all weekend and keeps asking questions about the storms. He hasn't had the opportunity to go through one yet...But he's real interested. I think I have a future S2K'er on my hands...LOL

SFT
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