ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

[jlauderdal]

https://i.postimg.cc/g0r8Vk5J/B3247-E21-BB6-C-4952-992-C-4-AFAFD4499-D0.png

I will be very surprised if FLL(airport) sees 60+, Less than 10+ inches of rain between now and next weds would surprise me

[Blown Away]

https://i.postimg.cc/g0r8Vk5J/B3247-E21-BB6-C-4952-992-C-4-AFAFD4499-D0.png

What time was that graphic created?

[cycloneye]

Looks like a remnant swirl of low clouds this morning. NHC should be downgrading it to a post-tropical remnant low shortly. Will they even continue advisories? Remember that when Harvey weakened to a remnant low in the central Caribbean the NHC stopped advisories, even though Harvey was predicted to redevelop (but in 4-5 days). Since Eta is predicted to redevelop over the weekend, I think the NHC will continue advisories. I now have it by the western tip of Cuba next Tuesday. NHC will likely shift that 120 hr point west and south.

They did not put post -tropical remnant low.

INIT 05/1500Z 15.1N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/0000Z 15.7N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/1200Z 16.8N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 07/0000Z 17.8N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 19.0N 84.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 20.1N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 21.3N 81.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 23.0N 80.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 24.0N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

[chaser1]

I believe that there may be the slightest hint of low to mid level turning beginning to appear around 16N & 86W. This would corollate with the elongated northeast/southwest tilt of the remnant broad mid level trough axis associated with Eta. Additionally, lowest surface pressures in the region that I saw appear to be 1005-1007 mb along the N. Honduran coastline between 85W-87W. A good deal of
convection is occurring near and north of that point but it's hard to see how significant organization could occur before Saturday. Now that we're potentially closer to the time of genesis it sure seems that high pressure will be pretty vertically stacked over the southeast US seaboard going forward in time and I'm not seeing this system getting any east of 80W especially if development is any bit slower to occur. At this point I think that a mid level T.S. in the Florida Straits might near the lower Keys with the greatest threat of a high-end T.S. to minimal hurricane to possibly impact Florida West coast somewhere between Ft. Myers to Tampa. So far I just can't see this developing into much of a wind event for southeast Florida outside of long-fetch gradient winds along the S.E. Florida coastline gusting in the 40's (mph) as a result of high pressure to the north between late Sunday and early Tuesday. I think that if quicker development were to occur resulting in an organized T.S. to begin tracking Northeast sooner, then there'd be an increased threat to South Florida with a westward hair-pin WNW turn. I don't think the timing of events will suggest that occurring.

[wxman57]

No remnant low, which probably makes it easier for them. No big deal. They did make a significant track shift westward between days 4 and 5, as I expected they would.

[Frank2]

This from the NHC 9 a.m. discussion:

It should be noted that while Eta regaining hurricane strength cannot be ruled out, there is little support for that in the current guidance.

I think AccuWeather needs to update their graphic - the system will be influenced by the ULL and at best will be a hybrid system, while the AW graphic shows a wind forecast associated with a tropical system.

[Emmett_Brown]

NHC's 10am forecast track for Eta is a nice example of how the NHC does not always closely follow the TVCN. TVCN is over the Yucatan Channel, and NHC is still taking it across central Cuba. The expert human element

[AutoPenalti]

At this rate, Florida may be out of the cone entirely by tomorrow. The Florida shield strikes again.


Gotta keep checking runs first, still lot's of time to track this.

[TheProfessor]

This system may find itself in a healthier environment in the Gulf(or in the case it goes further east than expected and winds up in the straits later than the forecast.) but early on the storm is likely to be sheared with the convection off to the northeast. Because of this the southwest shift by NHC doesn't do anything to decrease the current flooding threat for SFL if we are to assume the convection will focused on the northeast side. If the storm looks like what the GFS shows it may actually put SFL under the heaviest precip, so no one should let their guard down right now.

[TheStormExpert]

Encouraging news to see the track shift south and bend more west at days 4-5. Probably will just be a rain event for South Florida if trends continue. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more south and west shifts.

[TheStormExpert]

At this rate, Florida may be out of the cone entirely by tomorrow. The Florida shield strikes again.


Gotta keep checking runs first, still lot's of time to track this.

Yep. We deflect every storm that comes our way.

[ncforecaster89]

NHC's 10am forecast track for Eta is a nice example of how the NHC does not always closely follow the TVCN. TVCN is over the Yucatan Channel, and NHC is still taking it across central Cuba. The expert human element

It’s also important to note that the TVCN consensus would be essentially where the NHC has the track if one were to ignore the major outlier (e.g., the UKMET model)...which is dramatically skewing the aforementioned TVCN.

[chaser1]

Encouraging news to see the track shift south and bend more west at days 4-5. Probably will just be a rain event for South Florida if trends continue. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more south and west shifts.

https://i.imgur.com/lAz4ZIq.png

Looking at the latest NHC official track, i'd guess that a bit slower of an evolutionary process would tend to result in a "smoother" south to north track a bit closer to the east of Isle of Pines and then across Cuba with perhaps a closer approach to Key West.

[Iceresistance]

Looks like a remnant swirl of low clouds this morning. NHC should be downgrading it to a post-tropical remnant low shortly. Will they even continue advisories? Remember that when Harvey weakened to a remnant low in the central Caribbean the NHC stopped advisories, even though Harvey was predicted to redevelop (but in 4-5 days). Since Eta is predicted to redevelop over the weekend, I think the NHC will continue advisories. I now have it by the western tip of Cuba next Tuesday. NHC will likely shift that 120 hr point west and south.

They did not put post -tropical remnant low.

INIT 05/1500Z 15.1N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/0000Z 15.7N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/1200Z 16.8N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 07/0000Z 17.8N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 19.0N 84.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 20.1N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 21.3N 81.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 23.0N 80.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 24.0N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

It has enough convection close to the center to keep going

[Iceresistance]

At this rate, Florida may be out of the cone entirely by tomorrow. The Florida shield strikes again.


Gotta keep checking runs first, still lot's of time to track this.

Yep. We deflect every storm that comes our way.

But remember that Eta is becoming harder to track.

[Iceresistance]

Encouraging news to see the track shift south and bend more west at days 4-5. Probably will just be a rain event for South Florida if trends continue. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more south and west shifts.

https://i.imgur.com/lAz4ZIq.png

But what about Louisiana? They may be hit for the 6th time!

[wxman57]

NHC's 10am forecast track for Eta is a nice example of how the NHC does not always closely follow the TVCN. TVCN is over the Yucatan Channel, and NHC is still taking it across central Cuba. The expert human element

Another factor is that they (NHC) don't want to make any drastic change from advisory to advisory. That IS a curious consensus track, though.

[FireRat]

At this rate, Florida may be out of the cone entirely by tomorrow. The Florida shield strikes again.


Gotta keep checking runs first, still lot's of time to track this.

Yep. We deflect every storm that comes our way.

If only it could get deflected the other way...

[wxman57]

Encouraging news to see the track shift south and bend more west at days 4-5. Probably will just be a rain event for South Florida if trends continue. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more south and west shifts.

https://i.imgur.com/lAz4ZIq.png

But what about Louisiana? They may be hit for the 5th time!

I've had my money on Louisiana for the past week. However, conditions across the northern Gulf will be a lot more hostile than they were with previous storms. Might not survive to reach the coast.