2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1427381535200710665?s=20

https://i.imgur.com/XmNHhtZ.png

And it would not surprise me to see the 9th named storm form later this month. I know it’s still mid-August and we have yet to see a MH, but imho this is a pretty glaring warning sign that conditions this year seem to still be quite conducive for NS formation, and the idea that we are only exceeded by 2 seasons in the recent past (both of which went on to become the two most active seasons on recorded) makes me think that we are so not there yet. As in, not even close to being done this season. So buckle up.

[storminabox]

Conditions in 2021 thus far just do not seem to be conducive to Irma- or Ivan-like, CV-type long-trackers that become majors while in the MDR. The EPAC continues to dominate the Atlantic to date. Until the AEJ slackens and the persistent TUTT weakens, the Atlantic will struggle to generate (major) hurricanes, at least in the deep tropics. The only thing that may prove to be an exception is a storm like Chris (2018) or Epsilon (2020) that forms in the subtropics and then strengthens while gradually curving OTS at a high latitude.

It's August 16.

Within four days of 20 August one should already begin to see signs of the pattern changing. At this point models stubbornly cling to the strong AEJ/TUTT.

In 2018 and 2019, we didn’t see signs in the modeling of the Atlantic waking up at this point. They’ll come around eventually.

[toad strangler]

The season is progressing as many of us have thought since pre 6/1. West, West, and more West. Not good.

[AxaltaRacing24]

It's August 16.

Within four days of 20 August one should already begin to see signs of the pattern changing. At this point models stubbornly cling to the strong AEJ/TUTT.

In 2018 and 2019, we didn’t see signs in the modeling of the Atlantic waking up at this point. They’ll come around eventually.

And both of those seasons featured a cat 5 landfall somewhere in the basin.

[psyclone]

The bell must first ring before the fat lady can sing. For some reason people get that wrong. As expected favorability is slowly advancing into the western part of the basin and it's right on schedule. Had Fred not done the deadly dance with the shredder, we probably would have been looking at a solid hurricane landfall today instead of a tropical storm.

[captainbarbossa19]

The bell must first ring before the fat lady can sing. For some reason people get that wrong. As expected favorability is slowly advancing into the western part of the basin and it's right on schedule. Had Fred not done the deadly dance with the shredder, we probably would have been looking at a solid hurricane landfall today instead of a tropical storm.

Grace might end all talk of a quiet season.

[aspen]

The bell must first ring before the fat lady can sing. For some reason people get that wrong. As expected favorability is slowly advancing into the western part of the basin and it's right on schedule. Had Fred not done the deadly dance with the shredder, we probably would have been looking at a solid hurricane landfall today instead of a tropical storm.

Grace might end all talk of a quiet season.

Quite the turn from when it was creating talks of a quiet session (and yes, I’m guilty of contributing).

[AxaltaRacing24]

The bell must first ring before the fat lady can sing. For some reason people get that wrong. As expected favorability is slowly advancing into the western part of the basin and it's right on schedule. Had Fred not done the deadly dance with the shredder, we probably would have been looking at a solid hurricane landfall today instead of a tropical storm.

Grace might end all talk of a quiet season.

Quite the turn from when it was creating talks of a quiet session (and yes, I’m guilty of contributing).

It starts up fast after the bell date. 2019 was practically dead, then right after 8/20, there is a cat 5 threatening my town. After that close call, I make sure to never dismiss a season that is forecasted to be above average before we even hit late August. Especially in this one, with current totals at 8/1/0. That's quite busy before a peak.

[AlphaToOmega]

A hyperactive season is virtually guaranteed unless something drastic happens. This call was based on the early season, climate models, and an already favorable SST setup. Eight storms have formed so far, and the eighth storm formed on August 16, the fourth earliest such storm; the CanSIPS has been consistently forecasting a VP and SST anomaly setup similar to that of 2020 and 2010, both of which were hyperactive years; a +AMO and a +TNA combined with a -PDO and a -ENSO will likely ensure that the Atlantic is much warmer than the East Pacific.

[AtlanticWind]

Waiting for one of those big sprawling systems, so far in August the storms have been small.
Probably due to SAL and dry air. I know the big systems are more common in September coming off Africa,
and sometimes in October in the Carribean and gulf.

[captainbarbossa19]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1427360253272801292


Looks the worst of the SAL outbreak stays in the northern part of the MDR and out of the Carribean and Gulf.

That will bring out the bears in full force!

Wasn't someone pointing out recently that there was a huge SAL outbreak in 2017 right before Irma? I wonder...

[weeniepatrol]

[captainbarbossa19]

:uarrow:
https://i.imgur.com/8eRGifv.jpg

It also bothers me that the next storm on the list is the letter "I." It's impossible to say if another Irma is going to result from this, but if it does happen, we need to pay attention more to these late SAL outbreaks!

[Category5Kaiju]

As long as you get a storm that rides way to the south of these dust plumes or a storm that travels in between two consecutive dust waves, that storm would not really be negatively affected by the SAL with all else being equal.

[Shell Mound]

A hyperactive season is virtually guaranteed unless something drastic happens.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1427361108961210376



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1427361802334179334



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1427362663911366664




Hyperactivity is based solely on seasonal ACE. Hyperactive seasons feature seasonal ACE of > 159.6 units (1991–2020 climatology). 2021 has a lot of work to do in order to become a hyperactive season. So far virtually every storm except Elsa has been very unimpressive in terms of intensity and in some cases one could even question its classification as a TS or stronger (i.e., Claudette, Danny, and Grace, none of which had FL winds supporting TS status). Of course, there have been a number of hyperactive seasons that did not take off until 20 August or later, but according to the models the AEJ and the TUTT should have weakened by now, but instead there are no evident indications of a change in the configuration, even through the end of August. If there are no signs of strong storms by the end of August I think people should already begin to contemplate a much less active season than many seasonal forecasts have indicated, especially in the realm of ACE.

[tolakram]

Hyperactivity is based solely on seasonal ACE. Hyperactive seasons feature seasonal ACE of > 159.6 units (1991–2020 climatology). 2021 has a lot of work to do in order to become a hyperactive season. So far virtually every storm except Elsa has been very unimpressive in terms of intensity and in some cases one could even question its classification as a TS or stronger (i.e., Claudette, Danny, and Grace, none of which had FL winds supporting TS status). Of course, there have been a number of hyperactive seasons that did not take off until 20 August or later, but according to the models the AEJ and the TUTT should have weakened by now, but instead there are no evident indications of a change in the configuration, even through the end of August. If there are no signs of strong storms by the end of August I think people should already begin to contemplate a much less active season than many seasonal forecasts have indicated, especially in the realm of ACE.

I think the next 10 days will be telling. If Grace fails to generate much ACE then a hyperactive season, while still possible, is going to be difficult to achieve unless we have another record breaking late season. If both Grace and Henri generate a good amount of ACE then I think the season is still on target.

[SFLcane]

Things are either gonna explode eventually or this will be a memorable September upcoming. One thing I can see now is the rest of August could be shut down with a big trade surge inbound.



If you look at the EPS, after the suppressed Kelvin Wave, there's another CCKW right at the end of the month. So September 1-10 would be the window I would look for at this point. If that doesn't produce a long tracker or two, we're looking at an underachieving season.

[AlphaToOmega]

Things are either gonna explode eventually or this will be a memorable September upcoming. One thing I can see now is the rest of August could be shut down with a big trade surge inbound.

https://i.postimg.cc/PxFGhtNM/5-EE8-CC92-1-D37-453-F-BE69-22-B22-FDE99-AB.jpg

If you look at the EPS, after the suppressed Kelvin Wave, there's another CCKW right at the end of the month. So September 1-10 would be the window I would look for at this point. If that doesn't produce a long tracker or two, we're looking at an underachieving season.

https://i.postimg.cc/zfQZYzyF/F516-B099-FC32-467-D-B9-E8-776-E12-FF0692.jpg

Trade winds in the MDR and the Gulf of Mexico are modeled to be below-average. The CCKW is modeled to be in the EPac from August 25 to August 30, which is a very short period of time. The rest of August is most likely not going to be shut down.

[SFLcane]

Things are either gonna explode eventually or this will be a memorable September upcoming. One thing I can see now is the rest of August could be shut down with a big trade surge inbound.

https://i.postimg.cc/PxFGhtNM/5-EE8-CC92-1-D37-453-F-BE69-22-B22-FDE99-AB.jpg

If you look at the EPS, after the suppressed Kelvin Wave, there's another CCKW right at the end of the month. So September 1-10 would be the window I would look for at this point. If that doesn't produce a long tracker or two, we're looking at an underachieving season.

https://i.postimg.cc/zfQZYzyF/F516-B099-FC32-467-D-B9-E8-776-E12-FF0692.jpg

Trade winds in the MDR and the Gulf of Mexico are modeled to be below-average. The CCKW is modeled to be in the EPac from August 25 to August 30, which is a very short period of time. The rest of August is most likely not going to be shut down.

 https://twitter.com/jasondunning/status/1427609769699856387

[aspen]

Things are either gonna explode eventually or this will be a memorable September upcoming. One thing I can see now is the rest of August could be shut down with a big trade surge inbound.

https://i.postimg.cc/PxFGhtNM/5-EE8-CC92-1-D37-453-F-BE69-22-B22-FDE99-AB.jpg

If you look at the EPS, after the suppressed Kelvin Wave, there's another CCKW right at the end of the month. So September 1-10 would be the window I would look for at this point. If that doesn't produce a long tracker or two, we're looking at an underachieving season.

https://i.postimg.cc/zfQZYzyF/F516-B099-FC32-467-D-B9-E8-776-E12-FF0692.jpg

What do you mean a “big trade surge”? All of those are negative anomalies.