ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Zonacane]

Extrap pressure 965. Still strengthening, and when that convective burst fully rotates around Ian will really start bombing

[Hammy]

Recon still doesn't support Cat 2 intensity.

[PandaCitrus]

Very possible, all it would take is the trough coming in stronger than the models expect and Ian coming in south and continuing NE through Orlando and out the Atlantic similar to a Charley track. In fact models like HMON and UKMet and Icon show this. All the surge and worst winds are avoided for Tampa Bay if it comes in south. Of course, then Sarasota, Port Charlotte and Ft. Myers are in major trouble.

Tampa bay will find a way to get out of this....like they always do...Right?

[GCANE]

Hot spot in front of the tower expanding rapidly

[Jag95]

So a Cat 2 is the "Storm of the Century"? That is one huge chunk of hype for a developing storm. Wow.


[url]https://i.ibb.co/jvHP8LT/storm-of-century.png [/url]

I think they meant for Tampa. It's been 100 years since they've had a major.

[skyline385]

Having fun in the eye.

https://i.imgur.com/hyEGS5j.png

Probably for the twitter video tonight

joking btw

[sbcc]

for Tampa it is absolutely the storm of the century, no major hurricane hits since 1921

Sure, I saw that earlier, not even a Cat 1 since the 40's. So maybe the headline should say "Storm of the Century for Tampa"?

I think this conversation is trying to get political and it should probably stop.

I found that headline because I frequent Fox news. Politics is not my goal here. Shutting up now.

[aspen]

Extrap pressure 965. Still strengthening, and when that convective burst fully rotates around Ian will really start bombing

Assuming it can ever get rid of that pesky inner eyewall. If it wasn’t for that, Cuba could’ve been looking at a 100-110 kt landfall tonight.

I hope I didn’t just jinx them.

[sponger]

So a Cat 2 is the "Storm of the Century"? That is one huge chunk of hype for a developing storm. Wow.


[url]https://i.ibb.co/jvHP8LT/storm-of-century.png [/url]

If your look at this from Tampa's perspective who hasn't had a Major Hurricane in over 100 years then yes, it is "The Storm of the Century".

Glad to know what to expect when NE Florida's luck finally runs out. Even we had Dora a mere six decades ago. Tampa got hit when the car was still competing with horses.

[Patrick99]

Very possible, all it would take is the trough coming in stronger than the models expect and Ian coming in south and continuing NE through Orlando and out the Atlantic similar to a Charley track. In fact models like HMON and UKMet and Icon show this. All the surge and worst winds are avoided for Tampa Bay if it comes in south. Of course, then Sarasota, Port Charlotte and Ft. Myers are in major trouble.

Tampa bay will find a way to get out of this....like they always do...Right?

To my untrained eye, it does look like the trough has come in pretty hot...but what do I know. At the very least it might make for some shear?

[tolakram]

Recon still doesn't support Cat 2 intensity.

Neither has sampled the NE quad yet.

[NDG]

Recon still doesn't support Cat 2 intensity.

Yep, I thought that recon was going to find it in the NE quadrant but not so.

233000 2053N 08305W 6966 02939 9793 +113 +003 150066 068 073 005 00
233030 2055N 08304W 6965 02950 9823 +098 +003 152071 073 076 008 00
233100 2056N 08302W 6957 02977 9851 +087 +003 153086 088 075 013 00
233130 2058N 08301W 6977 02961 9869 +081 +003 148090 091 069 020 03
233200 2059N 08300W 6962 02985 9870 +084 +002 149086 089 067 009 00

[CrazyC83]

Recon still doesn't support Cat 2 intensity.

If not because they already have it higher, I would go with 80 kt for the current intensity. They won't lower it though.

[tolakram]

Recon still doesn't support Cat 2 intensity.

Neither has sampled the NE quad yet.

https://i.imgur.com/2kHI3uN.png

Woops, it just updated

[TheHurricaneGod]

Hope recon has good quality coffee.

[kevin]

I know SFMR is a bit lower (peaked at 80 kt so far), but 95 kt FL winds are usually sufficient for NHC to go to cat 2 intensity.

[GCANE]

Drop from NOAA9 well north of the CoC showing strong moisture levels up to 200mb.
Not much directional shear.

[skyline385]

Recon still doesn't support Cat 2 intensity.

Yep, I thought that recon was going to find it in the NE quadrant but not so.

233000 2053N 08305W 6966 02939 9793 +113 +003 150066 068 073 005 00
233030 2055N 08304W 6965 02950 9823 +098 +003 152071 073 076 008 00
233100 2056N 08302W 6957 02977 9851 +087 +003 153086 088 075 013 00
233130 2058N 08301W 6977 02961 9869 +081 +003 148090 091 069 020 03
233200 2059N 08300W 6962 02985 9870 +084 +002 149086 089 067 009 00

Didnt they find 95 kts FL and 80 kts SFMR in the NW quad? A blend of that would support Cat 2.

[Nimbus]

Shear from the west evident over Nola in the water vapor loop.
I think the question has always been will shear from that deep trough still be there when Ian gets into the gulf?
Latest HMON switches from south of Tallahassee to the Atlantic in subsequent run.
Modeling a Charley style track shift with a sheared center from the digging trough apparently.

See what it looks like in the morning.

[NDG]

I know SFMR is a bit lower (peaked at 80 kt so far), but 95 kt FL winds are usually sufficient for NHC to go to cat 2 intensity.

But cat 2 starts at 96 mph.