TC Bertha

[KWT]

Yeah I noticed that, 948mbs is indeed really low, impressive to say the least, I honestly didn't think it would become a major hurricane even yesterday!

Recon will miss this at peak strength, real shame but I think this wil lbe a threat to Bermuda and thus they will be forced to fly soon.

[wzrgirl1]

I am amazed and flabbergasted. Just a few pages back I said no way this would even be a cat. 2 yet....and now look. Wow! I am speechless!!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I guess having a possitive MJO at the beginning of July really does affect the production of storms. Great example of how it provides a conducive environment.

The scary thing is that this storm is so well structured, so very early in the season.

Let's hope that there aren't many more majors on Bertha's tail. -or else we could be in for one harrowing year!

[SkyDragon]

She became the strongest Bertha surpassing 96's Bertha by 12 mbar,
96-960mbar-115mph
08-948mbar-115mph

[srainhoutx]

I will bite my tongue. They did upgrade it. I can't believe it. The overly conservative NHC did upgrade it. WOW. SHOCKED AND SPEECHLESS.

Bill Read talks!!!

Yes, he does.

['CaneFreak]

"So -60C = 95kts, and -80C =100kts? The 5kt difference is cloud top temps?"

NOOOOOOOOOO...Its all about friction and updrafts and downdrafts and the amount of wind that actually makes it to the surface. -60C cloudtops dont mean a certain windspeed. -80 cloudtops don't mean a wind speed. Trust me. Just wait for the advisory. If this is a category 3 hurricane I will be VERY SURPRISED.

I'm not going after you. Its just one of the things that gets me going. That major changes have to happen to reach a magical barrier. 100kts is one of those barriers. Its just your first post you were so defiant that it wasn't a cat 3...but you said its 95kts. Its hard to explain what I mean. Its only a 5kt difference. I mean you are certain its not cat 3, but you seem sure its 95kts. Do you see what I'm getting at? Don't take any thing from it. Its just one of my pet peeves. That something magical happens between 60kts and 65kts. In reality it doesn't. The difference between 60 and 65 is the same as 55 and 60...but a magical word happens at 65 so its a big deal.

</rant>

I got you. I understand where you are coming from. I didn't think they would upgrade due to the satellite estimates that came in earlier and based on what I have seen in the past with MANY MANY tropical cyclones. I have been studying hurricanes for as long as I can remember and I have never seen a cat 3 with this structure. Not only that, but I know how conservative the NHC is with intensity. Not mad and I hope you aren't.

[Decomdoug]

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

Answered the question myself

[SkyDragon]

NHC is expecting more majors! Sorry!

[Scorpion]

I wish recon could go in there tonight.. could have a chance to break Emily's 929 mb perhaps

[AnnularCane]

Wow. I don't think I expected that. At least not until maybe the last couple of hours or so.

What a beauty!

[MiamiensisWx]

DELETED

[WmE]

Gordon of 2006 had a similar structure.

[Brent]

WOW...

A major hurricane on July 7th. That's amazing.

[SkyDragon]

From the 5-day forecast, Bertha might miss Bermuda as it isn't even in the cone!

[MiamiensisWx]

DELETED

[wzrgirl1]

I wish recon could go in there tonight.. could have a chance to break Emily's 929 mb perhaps

yep all bets are off imo.....whoo da thunk it?

[cheezyWXguy]

She became the strongest Bertha surpassing 96's Bertha by 12 mbar,
96-960mbar-115mph
08-948mbar-115mph

lol if im correct, I think the average minimum pressure for a minimal cat 4 is near 948mb...surprising its the pressure of a minimal cat3...

[SkyDragon]

From the 5-day forecast, Bertha might miss Bermuda as it isn't even in the cone!

IT is sorry!

[CrazyC83]

When did Dennis become a major hurricane? Could this be the earliest one since Alma in 1966?

[KWT]

I would be careful with the track and the cone, the NHC is shifting east becuase ofn the models but many of them are already on a 310 heading which is more then this system is on, we just don't know what the exact track will be tobe honest its too early to know therefore Bermuda is close enough to still be at real risk.