ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[KWT]

Yeah deltadog03 it seems to be so impressive in terms of how it looks and your right the MLC could only hold the convection for about 6hrs bursts before weakening, this has held it for far longer now. Also looking at the vvis.images I also find it hard to believe that there is no LLC...

gatorcane, yeah I agree with you, really not sure why they wont issue a STDS.

[txwatcher91]

Remember how everyone was saying it was dead just a day or two ago? This just goes to show that until a wave or system stops firing convection, you can't give up. IMO this looks like Fay to me, but what do I know

[CrazyC83]

Wouldn't it be cool if this invest gose straight to Hurricane cause it looks so well orginized!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Such would be almost unprecedented for a system with tropical origins...that usually only happens when an extratropical system with hurricane-force winds transitions to tropical.

Whether or not there is an LLC, I'd say winds are at least 45-50 kt.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wouldn't it be cool if this invest gose straight to Hurricane cause it looks so well orginized!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I don't know how "cool" it would be for the islanders, but it certainly would be an amazing sight from a meteorological perspective if an eye all of the sudden popped out of this invest and it had to instantly be declared a hurricane. It would go down as one of the craziest tropical moments in history probably.

[micktooth]

I think it's lunch time at the NHC, wait until they get back for upgrades and updates

[BatzVI]

hurricanefloyd5......it's not so cool when you're in it's path.....

[littlevince]

Radar Loop (-16:30z)

[Honeyko]

Ding, Ding, Ding, we have a winner for the best looking Invest ever:
92L

This is the best-looking TD I've ever seen, and few TS are better in appearance.

[txwatcher91]

Ding, Ding, Ding, we have a winner for the best looking Invest ever:
92L

This is the best-looking TD I've ever seen, and few TS are better in appearance.

It isn't official yet, so don't call it a TD until it is.

[KWT]

Yep indeed there arent many TD either in the past that have looked as good as 92L does right now however looks I suppose can fool some people I guess.

[canegrl04]

Ding, Ding, Ding, we have a winner for the best looking Invest ever:
92L

This is the best-looking TD I've ever seen, and few TS are better in appearance.

Yep.This looks better ,or just as good as most TS's I've seen

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Either I am delusional or this is looking like a 70 mph Tropical Storm Fay
on the verge of becoming a hurricane. See colored image I posted on the
previous page.

[vbhoutex]

I can't believe there is not even an STDS on this yet. I am puzzled. Is the NHC wanting recon data that bad before upgrading?

There would be a myriad of issues if they upgraded a system without proper data. As a public agency they must wait for confirmation from scientific data unlike all of us here who are not "official".

I am not saying this isn't a TD or even a TS yet. However, anymore references to this invest as anything other than an invest UNTIL IT IS OFFICIALLY DESIGNATED OTHERWISE, will result in actions being taken by staff. THIS APPLIES TO EVERYONE ON THIS SITE AND I DO MEAN EVERYONE!!

I have seen no official upgrades so far.

[HURAKAN]

Mind blowing.

[Honeyko]

[hurricanefloyd5]

Wouldn't it be cool if this invest gose straight to Hurricane cause it looks so well orginized!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I don't know how "cool" it would be for the islanders, but it certainly would be an amazing sight from a meteorological perspective if an eye all of the sudden popped out of this invest and it had to instantly be declared a hurricane. It would go down as one of the craziest tropical moments in history probably.

that's what I meant!!!!!1sorry i should have myself clear!!!!!!

[expat2carib]

News Release



Written by Roddy Heyliger, Government Information Service (GIS), Ennia Bldg., Longwall Rd., Philipsburg, St. Maarten D.W.I. Tel. 00-599-543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis at sintmaarten.net;



For Immediate Release: Thursday, August 14, 2008/N116



11.30AM



Office of Disaster Management & Preparedness says to exercise caution during possible localized flooding conditions



GREAT BAY, St. Maarten (GIS) – The Office of Disaster Management & Preparedness (ODMP) is advising the public to exercise a level of caution due to the possibility of localized flooding in low lying areas known to be prone to flooding, from heavy rains and gusty winds that are expected within the next 24-36 hours due to the passing of an area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave.



In the coming weeks the island will experience from time to time Tropical Waves that can cause localized flooding in low lying areas.



Motorists while driving should exercise caution during heavy rainfall.



# # #



Roddy Heyliger

St. Maarten Government Information Service (GIS)

[Chacor]

Here's what the Dominican Republic's weather service posted earlier this morning in Spanish.

http://www.onamet.gov.do/

Jueves 14 de agosto del 2008 a las 6:00 a.m. Válido hasta el sábado 16 de agosto a las 6:00 a.m.

onda tropical al este de las islas de sotavento (antillas menores).

Durante el día de hoy las condiciones del tiempo estarán dominadas por los efectos locales y el viento predominante del Este/Noreste dando lugar a la ocurrencia de chubascos aislados con algunas tronadas hacia las regiones Noreste, Sureste, Cordillera Central y la Zona Fronteriza.

Mientras que a partir de mañana se espera un ligero incremento en las precipitaciones, debido al acercamiento de la onda tropical localizada al este de las islas de Sotavento (Antillas Menores).

[KWT]

Honeyko, waters are totally primed in that region of the Bahamas, find it hard to think that if something does form it won't be a powerful system, really need to hope Hispaniola does a number on it but I'm not sure...

[Air Force Met]

Ding, Ding, Ding, we have a winner for the best looking Invest ever:
92L

This is the best-looking TD I've ever seen, and few TS are better in appearance.

If this is a TD...it is barely a TD. Looking at hi-res vis loops tells me that if there is a closed LLC...it is out near 18/63 and not under the MLC. There are clearly SE and S winds on the west side of the convective blob...and they are not light.

That does not mean this system can't pull itself together quickly and the center dive down to the sfc form the mid levels...but right now...it looks much more impressive than it actually is.

Also...for those who keep wondering why the NHC is not upgrading...please...take a good look at a hi-res loop (and not form the SSD site either...that's not hi-res). You will be hard pressed to find a LLC or anything that suggests it. The low level cu field has the motion of a sharp tropical wave. It doesn't mean it can't happen in a couple of hours...but it doesn't appear to be happening now.