ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Vortex]

I think the Northern CIRC/Vort will become the main one, that is certainly where the best Low Level Conv. is...(as Luis posted) There is also some very healthy storms firing there. IMO that bottom part of the big thunderstorm blob will shred off and weaken...

Def agree 100%....

[floridasun78]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Isaac center has jumped north to 16.5 as storm is now starting to get serious and northern center taking over he think same

[SouthFLTropics]

Coast Guard has set Port Condition Whiskey at Port Everglades and Port Miami

http://www.uscgnews.com/go/doc/4007/152 ... eleases%29

[Shuriken]

Given an unspectacular CDO, a lot of surface detail is still visible on shortwave.

If the southern mid-level center still wears the pants, the surface center to the north will bend west then southwest overnight (similar to last night).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Aric Dunn]

recon disagrees. multiple centers. possible center some near 15.5

[Frank P]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Isaac center has jumped north to 16.5 as storm is now starting to get serious and northern center taking over he think same

Just wondering is he still thing the east coast or has he changed his mind?

[Air Force Met]

I think the Northern CIRC/Vort will become the main one, that is certainly where the best Low Level Conv. is...(as Luis posted) There is also some very healthy storms firing there. IMO that bottom part of the big thunderstorm blob will shred off and weaken...

I think the best LL conv is near 15.5/68.5 right now...which is where the tstms are forming a V notch...and which is pretty far south of the recon fix and that vort max. I think the fact we have all easterly winds N of 16N show the MLC is certainly south of 16. They need to fly into that area. If you keep continuity with where the NHC had the center...and move it wnw by 45 miles...its really disorganized and those tstms are dying.

Looks to me like the center will be somewhere around 15-15.5 / 68-69. Given the lack of good data...no doubts NHC will keep continuity and keep it north...even though that doesn't make a lot of sense given what we've seen on recon and satellite.

[WeatherOrKnot]

WPB local met now saying that he doubts Isaac will survive Cuba and that it should fizzle out on Saturday.

[jasons2k]

A few thoughts from me:

- Looking at infrared, rather than seeing multiple centers, it looks to me like several circulations rotating around what is still a broad center.
- PR soundings still show dry air wrapping into the mean circulation. This will result in convective bursts that appear impressive on satellite but they will continue to pulse and wane as the dry air is forced to the surface in downdrafts. Wash - rinse - repeat until it's finally in a fully moist envelope.
- Someone mentioned shear. Shear isn't the issue; it's the dry air and the fact this is still very tilted too.
- Yes, it should take off once the centers stack in theory, but it has to get rid of the dry air too.
- I expect a continued wobble to the w/wnw and may miss Hispaniola completely (the center)
- I also expect a further shift to the west in the models. The last batch of GFS ensemble members are still further west. The EC ensembles generally line-up with the 'wild' operational run as well.
- In summary, still much uncertainty abounds. Hopefully tomorrow will bring more clarity.

[TwisterFanatic]

Joe is reaching so he can get back on his East Coast soapbox. Still multiple centers out there.

I still think the best LLC is the around 15.6 or so.

[Vortex]

It clearly moving wnw 275-280. It shouls pass right over S central Haiti on its current heading...

[LaBreeze]

WPB local met now saying that he doubts Isaac will survive Cuba and that it should fizzle out on Saturday.

I like this scenario.

[SouthFLTropics]

WPB local met now saying that he doubts Isaac will survive Cuba and that it should fizzle out on Saturday.

That is very irresponsible for them to say that...Which channel was that and who was the Met? And please don't disappoint me and say it was Kait Parker...I just can't find a way for her to disappoint me...

SFT

[Blown Away]

It clearly moving wnw 275-280. It shouls pass right over S central Haiti on its current heading...

Agree, Isaac looks to be a bit north and ahead of the NHC forecast points.

[deltadog03]

WPB local met now saying that he doubts Isaac will survive Cuba and that it should fizzle out on Saturday.

I like this scenario.

Please tell me what ***use a good word*** MET is saying that?

[TwisterFanatic]

WPB local met now saying that he doubts Isaac will survive Cuba and that it should fizzle out on Saturday.

Not a very good local met I take it?

[ozonepete]

WPB local met now saying that he doubts Isaac will survive Cuba and that it should fizzle out on Saturday.

I like this scenario.

Please tell me what ***use a good word*** MET is saying that?

Completely irresponsible. Nothing else needs to be said.

[Vortex]

It clearly moving wnw 275-280. It shouls pass right over S central Haiti on its current heading...

Agree, Isaac looks to be a bit north and ahead of the NHC forecast points.

My sentiments as well....

[TwisterFanatic]

A few thoughts from me:

- Looking at infrared, rather than seeing multiple centers, it looks to me like several circulations rotating around what is still a broad center.
- PR soundings still show dry air wrapping into the mean circulation. This will result in convective bursts that appear impressive on satellite but they will continue to pulse and wane as the dry air is forced to the surface in downdrafts. Wash - rinse - repeat until it's finally in a fully moist envelope.
- Someone mentioned shear. Shear isn't the issue; it's the dry air and the fact this is still very tilted too.
- Yes, it should take off once the centers stack in theory, but it has to get rid of the dry air too.
- I expect a continued wobble to the w/wnw and may miss Hispaniola completely (the center)
- I also expect a further shift to the west in the models. The last batch of GFS ensemble members are still further west. The EC ensembles generally line-up with the 'wild' operational run as well.
- In summary, still much uncertainty abounds. Hopefully tomorrow will bring more clarity.

Great summary, imo

[rainstorm]

WPB local met now saying that he doubts Isaac will survive Cuba and that it should fizzle out on Saturday.

he is a trained met? anyway, that northern center is clearly rotating around a broad center, though it does seem its getting better organized.