Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Ralph's Weather]

38 with heavy rain Lindale, forecasted low was in the 50s. It will be interesting to see how much further it makes it and how the surface low affects it as it passes overhead later.

[srainhoutx]

The cold front is currently passing through the Austin Area on down to Giddings and surface analysis does suggest a surface low near Del Rio. College Station is S of the front, so would expect as seen via radar trends continuing storm development, some possibly severe to begin to ramp up near daybreak. Further S, the capping inversion still looks stout. Also noted is a very dry layer aloft which should inhibit thunderstorm development or lack of ability for towering cumulous cloud development early this morning. There is a brief 3-4 hour window as storms begin to line up or go linear that some severe storm development may be possible closer to Houston and Galveston, but that remains to be seen. The severe threat should end by early afternoon across all but extreme SE/E Texas. Further E into Louisiana where the Moderate Risk is currently outlined, a much tougher day weather wise may be ahead where capping issues will be far less. Areas from just E of Lake Charles to Baton Rogue and further N and E appear to be in the bulls eye for rotating super cell structure and the main focus of damaging wind and tornadoes. The upper low is shearing out over New Mexico at this time, but a negative tilted trough axis if slowly developing. Further N in the cold sector across Oklahoma and Missouri, a full blown ice storm is underway and that icy mess extends NE into the Chicago area.

There still remains a risk of a light freeze early Monday and Tuesday across our Region. Christmas Day looks rather uncertain as a short wave drops SE in the NW flow aloft and a E to SE flow of the Gulf begins and upglide precip may develop.

Looking a bit further out beyond Christmas Day, it appears we will be in a rather active and 'colder' pattern with bouts of rain and possibly wintery weather further N as the pattern continues to develop upper air disturbances to our W and the sub tropical jet remains rather noisy. There are growing indications that much colder air will push S into the Inter Mountain West and The Great Plains towards the last week of December, but that is too far out to know with any certainty what the New Years Eve/New Years Day forecast may hold as we ring in 2014.

[wxman57]

Model soundings for Dallas-Ft. Worth area indicate that although the surface temperature has dropped into the 30s, the temperature just above the surface has risen to 60F or higher.

[Ntxw]

It's good to see this rain clean out the roads and cars, it's been a pain after all that sand and dust.

As of this morning, srain and Porta have already done a fantastic job laying it out for us, a new pattern regime seems to be on the way. After spending an eternity very positive, heights will begin to rise in the Arctic. Ridging is going to take shape in the Arctic domain (AO) which is going to send it downward. It is not yet forecasted to go negative and may not but at the least it will be beneficial. As long as the EPO stays negative we won't risk the cold leaving our side of the globe as the Pacific continues to funnel Asian cold over to NW North America, if we lose the -EPO signal we torch but I don't believe that will happen. It's been steadfast and continues with warm SST's below Alaska and 500mb ridge stuck there. Wavelengths are getting longer and cold air gets deeper. Wxman57's fears of this winter for the most part remain true, the overall pattern at hand will be the pattern we work with the next few months. It has been a cold start to meteorological winter and will continue.

Of course I wasn't going to end it without talking of storms! There is a renewed burst of convection near the dateline (where have we heard that before?), this feature will need to be monitored the next 7-10 days as it will effect us in some form or fashion new years week.

[Portastorm]

The "micro" elements of weather always fascinate me such as how last night/this morning's cold front ended up a little more aggressive than any of the models sniffed out. Went to bed, it was 74. Woke up seven hours later and the temperature had dropped some 30 degrees to the mid 40s!

And how about that DFW Skew-T which wxman57 just posted?! The atmosphere is doing some interesting things.

Finally and as of this writing, we have a healthy albeit thin line of convective activity about to roll through the Austin metro. Will welcome the liquid gold.

As of 9 am, you can play Where's Waldo the Cold Front below:



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[Big O]

I just looked at the Euro ensemble mean and control run, and there is one heck of a pattern shaping up around day 15 with extreme blocking. A look at the 850 temperature anomalies for the same time period shows some extremely frigid air building near the Canadian and U.S (central) border. Question is does this air move into the U.S. (I believe it does) and where it moves (i.e., central or eastern US).

_________________
The above post and any post by BigO is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Portastorm]

I just looked at the Euro ensemble mean and control run, and there is one heck of a pattern shaping up around day 15 with extreme blocking. A look at the 850 temperature anomalies for the same time period shows some extremely frigid air building near the Canadian and U.S (central) border. Question is does this air move into the U.S. (I believe it does) and where it moves (i.e., central or eastern US).

_________________
The above post and any post by BigO is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Good stuff, Big O! Important to watch for how high pressure ridging develops out west as well as what does the polar vortex do? Both will impact the trajectory of the frigid air. So far, both the GFS and Euro have suggested flatter ridging out west and a delivery of the air more towards the Great Lakes and the Eastern US. But that is a long ways out and as we all know, it can (and very well might) change.

[gto67]

Weimar just issued a tornado watch until 6pm. Front north of La Grange.

Really enjoy this blog and I am learning a lot. Keep the great info coming.

[Portastorm]

Weimar just issued a tornado watch until 6pm. Front north of La Grange.

Really enjoy this blog and I am learning a lot. Keep the great info coming.

You are correct, gto67. Tornado Watch issued for much of East Texas and pretty much all of Louisiana until 6 p.m. Here are the details and glad you enjoy the action here. Stay involved!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0580.html

[ndale]

We had one heavy shower pass thru last night, just checked gauge and had 3/4 inch of rain.

[Texas Snowman]

Joe B: "@BigJoeBastardi: Saturday summary on weatherbell covering coming arctic attack. ECWMF means getting very close to pattern Jan 1994 http://t.co/xB1SqyEyp6.

[hriverajr]

The "micro" elements of weather always fascinate me such as how last night/this morning's cold front ended up a little more aggressive than any of the models sniffed out. Went to bed, it was 74. Woke up seven hours later and the temperature had dropped some 30 degrees to the mid 40s!

And how about that DFW Skew-T which wxman57 just posted?! The atmosphere is doing some interesting things.

Finally and as of this writing, we have a healthy albeit thin line of convective activity about to roll through the Austin metro. Will welcome the liquid gold.

As of 9 am, you can play Where's Waldo the Cold Front below:

http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/940/a8ca.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

We got .16 overnight here in Del Rio (my house), which is not bad in these parts in the winter. Front got here shortly after midnight. Up to 63 already though.

[gboudx]

From jeff:

SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for all of SE TX until 600pm.

Capping inversion over the region is starting to erode as large scale lift increasing ahead of approaching upper level storm system. Cells so far this morning have not become severe, but upstream line of strong to severe thunderstorms approaching along the dryline from central TX may pose a severe weather threat over the next 3-6 hours as it moves eastward into the area. Wind profiles remain supportive of weak tornadoes along with damaging straight line winds of 60-70mph. Think the threat for discrete supercells ahead of the main line is lowering and moving NE into LA at the moment and the main severe mode will be with the line approaching from the west. Embedded weak tornadoes within any kinks in the line will be possible.

Note cells are moving very quickly at 40-55mph and this will greatly limit warning lead times. If a warning is issued for your area take quick action.

[Portastorm]

Just had a fun little meteorology lesson applied while driving the PWC chase vehicle on a quick errand. "Champ", the PWC chase vehicle which is a 2009 Dodge Charger, has a fairly accurate temp gauge. Champ told me it was 45 degrees upon departure. Within minutes, the rains came down and we watch the temp rise 2-3 degrees on average as the rain brought down that warmer air just above us to the surface.

Yes ... I'm geeking out on meteorology today.

Rainfall in the last hour at the PWC, about .15 inches.

[Portastorm]

On another note and further out, anyone see the 12z GFS yet? If it verifies, we're looking at a colder and much stormier pattern for Texas beginning between Christmas and New Years and extending into the early days of 2014.

The 500mb pattern depicted below is from the 12z GFS at 312 hrs out. I'm namely interested in the pattern flow itself which suggests cold and stormy for us. Details to be ironed out.



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[Portastorm]

Curious wording below. I thought the Storm Prediction Center issued severe weather watches and not local NWSFOs. Hmmm ...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1039 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

.UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581 ISSUED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TWO COLD FRONTS ARE MOVING THROUGH OUR CWA THIS MORNING. ONE FROM
THE NORTH WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT AND THE
OTHER FROM THE WEST WITH STRONG CONVECTION ALONG IT. THIS
CONVECTION IS INCREASING AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS MORE MOIST AND
BUOYANT AIR IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WE BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL INCREASE AS THIS FRONT MOVES FARTHER EAST AND MAY PRODUCE
SOME SEVERE STORMS. WE HAVE ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF STORMS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE INCH.

THE FRONTS HAVE BROUGHT MUCH COOLER AIR AND DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES
HAVE LIKELY ALREADY BEEN REACHED IN MOST PLACES ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUARTER OF THE CWA HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL TIMING AND WITH
VERY FEW OBSERVATIONS THAT WILL BE HARD TO GAGE.

[wxman57]

Christmas week is looking cold, cloudy (by Christmas) with light rain in the Houston area. Enjoy the warmth today while it lasts...

[Ntxw]

Happy Winter Solstice! Just passed a few minutes ago! Winter is officially here and for our resident heat miser it's the worst time of the year! The good news for him is that his days are now going to get longer, the bad news is it's likely to get colder before it gets better.

[dhweather]

Model soundings for Dallas-Ft. Worth area indicate that although the surface temperature has dropped into the 30s, the temperature just above the surface has risen to 60F or higher.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scr ... .0000W.png

That's not only a warm nose, but its sticking it tongue out at us too.

[dhweather]

1.15 of liquid gold here, and since the soil was already moist, we're getting runoff, which hopefully gets water into the lakes.