ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Rgv20]

Very complicated steering that is setting up, in just 72hrs the 12zEPS has a huge spread....anywhere from Laredo, Tx to Beaumont, Tx.

[tarheelprogrammer]

12z EPS summary:

- EPS control is very close to the op Euro but it shows a landfall over SE Texas versus SW Louisiana.
- EPS mean remains concentrated between SETexas SWLouisiana.

You mean NE Texas, right?

[artist]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
This page presents operational model fields that are being used in a study examining their
forecast ability for tropical cyclogenesis in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S.,
please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

Model data last updated Thu Aug 24 19:05:39 UTC 2017.


Model
Initial Time
Field
Hour
Get Image
cmc

ecmwf-ensmean

ecmwf-oper

gfs

hmon

hwrf

navgem

Run the 850 vorticity


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=638
Eps

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS summary:

- EPS control is very close to the op Euro but it shows a landfall over SE Texas versus SW Louisiana.
- EPS mean remains concentrated between SETexas SWLouisiana.

You mean NE Texas, right?

NE Texas?

[HouTXmetro]

12z EPS summary:

- EPS control is very close to the op Euro but it shows a landfall over SE Texas versus SW Louisiana.
- EPS mean remains concentrated between SETexas SWLouisiana.

You mean NE Texas, right?

NE Texas is Dallas and points east to the Arkansas/LA border. I think he meant SE/SW Coast of TX/LA.

[otowntiger]

12z EPS summary:

- EPS control is very close to the op Euro but it shows a landfall over SE Texas versus SW Louisiana.
- EPS mean remains concentrated between SETexas SWLouisiana.

You mean NE Texas, right?

no, the section of Texas bordering LA in that area is referred to as Southeast Texas. The point down towards Brownsville is simply referred to a south Texas.

[stormreader]

Comes ashore just east of the TX/LA border. At least it's moving faster at this point but there's a lot of hours between these frames.

Well, that is very close to my call of 3-4 days ago. An approach just offshore of Texas coast and then a landfall at he Port Arthur--Sabine Pass border of Tex-La. It just seemed the most likely solution. Didn't buy into loops (although if Euro had reaffirmed loop along with GFS I was prepared to accept it. But I'm not the only one. There were a couple of us who thought the storm would impact the extreme upper Texas coast.

[South Texas Storms]

18z NAM is coming in slightly stronger and west so far through 12 hours.

[davidiowx]

Are we starting to see a more west trend in models? I know the Euro and GFS say no, but looks like a lot of the other ones are moving more towards a more western solution.

[stormreader]

EURO in the almost NOW range is a very good bet on any table....this years GFS not so much...wow would not have thought the EURO would change.....JB had this same scenario almost yesterday...

Hey Rock, I think you were sort of along the same lines with my thinking...the storm to trek further east than expected with a landfall in the uppermost Texas coast. Euro right now is very close to that. Could be a nudge back west or east...have to see. I think if anything might be just a nudge a tad east to come....seeing the trends. But that would be part of its later trek toward La. It might actually impact a little further east on the La coast.

[PTrackerLA]

Are we starting to see a more west trend in models? I know the Euro and GFS say no, but looks like a lot of the other ones are moving more towards a more western solution.

No, the NAM and HRRR should not be used for tropical cyclone forecasts

[Kingarabian]

Just to touch up on the differences between the EPS control and the EPS members (same explanations for the EPS and GEPS):

The control is basically the operational/deterministic model run on a lower resolution with less horizontal and vertical grid points.

The individual ensemble runs are pretty much the lower resolution control model but have added changes to the initial conditions.

The ensemble runs give forecasters a sense of direction if small changes were to affect the system, but at the same time can be very erroneous due to resolution issues. That's when the ensemble control comes in. The ensemble control helps identify when the Ensemble spread is due to initial condition variations as opposed to resolution issues.

Read more here if needed:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/7 ... ntrol-run/

[ROCK]

some 18Z runs in here.... current movement NNW so maybe why the EURO went east and to the right...IDK

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

[Roxy]

some 18Z runs in here.... current movement NNW so maybe why the EURO went east and to the right...IDK

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

I'm definitely not an expert, but I gotta think the models are telling us about a right turn...it's a matter of timing...

[stormreader]

Are we starting to see a more west trend in models? I know the Euro and GFS say no, but looks like a lot of the other ones are moving more towards a more western solution.

The only problem with that is the other models are fine to look at in the longer range. Sometimes they are "fortunate" and will be closer than the mainstream GFS and Euro. But within 72 hours you have to look at the models that are specifically tropical. And Euro, while not infallible, is tough to beat.

[wxmann_91]

For those who are looking at the hi-res models (NAM 3-km, HRRR et. al.) do recall they brought Matthew onshore in Miami less than a year ago.

Don't use those models for tropical cyclone forecasting.

[AJC3]

Gang,

Please keep the OT chit chat stuff confined to the chat room, PMs, or some other outlet, and not the forums. The mods/admins are pretty much in "storm mode" right now, meaning the chaff posts are being deleted without notice.

Thanks.

[KWT]

Are we starting to see a more west trend in models? I know the Euro and GFS say no, but looks like a lot of the other ones are moving more towards a more western solution.

The only problem with that is the other models are fine to look at in the longer range. Sometimes they are "fortunate" and will be closer than the mainstream GFS and Euro. But within 72 hours you have to look at the models that are specifically tropical. And Euro, while not infallible, is tough to beat.

The ECM does certainly put a bit of weight to the solution that it ends back in the Gulf again, especially as it has been showing the exact same solution over and over again whilst the GFS and other models have been jumping around to some extent.

[South Texas Storms]

18z NAM shifts west and looks pretty similar to the GFS through 48 hours.

[Rockin4NOLA]

18z NAM shifts west and looks pretty similar to the GFS through 48 hours.

The NAM isn't a forecasting model. At this point main focus should be on Euro, GFS and NHC guidance