ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

RFLOL Fifteen years ago today I started my weather blog (July 30th, 2005) devoted to the Martimes, Maine, and in a broader sense all of New England, talk about a terrible anniversary gift if the models pan out -

https://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/

Powerful storms eventually come up the coast and landfall. Not saying Isaias will be very powerful in the Northeast or Canada but people forget New England's been struck by category 3/4 storms 6 times...since the 1600s lol. But it does happen eventually. Last cat 3 into New England was the 1938 one I believe and the last actual hurricane was Bob in 1991. NE has been extremely lucky not having any landfalling hurricanes in the past 30 years considering there's been years in the past where NE got struck by 2 hurricanes within weeks of each other.

Nope, the last New England major was Carol in 1954

[sponger]

Has the center moved to the southwest in the last 30 minutes or just my imagination? Seems like the land interaction and flare up managed to bring the LLC in that direction but I may be wrong.

Land interaction? I see the same.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir

[Hurricaneman]

Has the center moved to the southwest in the last 30 minutes or just my imagination? Seems like the land interaction and flare up managed to bring the LLC in that direction but I may be wrong.

Land interaction? I see the same.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir

Nope, the center is still WNW and has moved further under the convection

[FLpanhandle91]

Still waiting on the next recon pass, but it does seem like it's gonna miss Inagua to the south just based on satellite movement. 0000 EDT NHC track has it passing north of there.

[CrazyC83]

RFLOL Fifteen years ago today I started my weather blog (July 30th, 2005) devoted to the Martimes, Maine, and in a broader sense all of New England, talk about a terrible anniversary gift if the models pan out -

https://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/

Powerful storms eventually come up the coast and landfall. Not saying Isaias will be very powerful in the Northeast or Canada but people forget New England's been struck by category 3/4 storms 6 times...since the 1600s lol. But it does happen eventually. Last cat 3 into New England was the 1938 one I believe and the last actual hurricane was Bob in 1991. NE has been extremely lucky not having any landfalling hurricanes in the past 30 years considering there's been years in the past where NE got struck by 2 hurricanes within weeks of each other.

Nope, the last New England major was Carol in 1954

There have been only five known majors in the Northeast: 1635, 1821, 1869 (and IMO that is questionable - I'd lower it to cat 2), 1938 and Carol 1954.

[TheDreamTraveler]

You’re not the only one. I was thinking this could be like Irene ‘11 when this was trying to form a few days ago, then later switched to thinking a Gulf scenario was more likely. Now it looks like an Irene-esque East Coast Sweep is most likely. If Isaias does get up to NY/NJ/CT, that’ll be two TCs impacting the region in less than a month, after 8 years since Sandy with exactly none (unless you count the remnants of Hermine and Jose off of the coast).

I actually wrote about this here over a week ago but I was discussing how the current pattern and the fact we had tropical storm Fay hug the mid atlantic coast and landfall in NJ then head north and die out made me think the east coast might be in a very vulnerable state. Same with tropical storm Bertha with its weird track into South Carolina. It was just observations I made and now I'm seeing Isaias being that threat I was thinking of is hilarious. If it does go up the entire coast. I don't really ever make forecasts either, just discussing what I was noticing since I look at the weather too much lol

[Hammy]

Seems like the theme this year is under-perform in the MDR, dramatically over-perform everywhere else. Another unpleasant thing this year is starting to have in common with 2005.

[StPeteMike]

Has the center moved to the southwest in the last 30 minutes or just my imagination? Seems like the land interaction and flare up managed to bring the LLC in that direction but I may be wrong.

Land interaction? I see the same.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir

Nope, the center is still WNW and has moved further under the convection

That’s the most westerly looking WNW I have seen. Haha Like FLpanhandle91 said, have to see what recon finds to make sure it’s keeping to the WNW movement.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Powerful storms eventually come up the coast and landfall. Not saying Isaias will be very powerful in the Northeast or Canada but people forget New England's been struck by category 3/4 storms 6 times...since the 1600s lol. But it does happen eventually. Last cat 3 into New England was the 1938 one I believe and the last actual hurricane was Bob in 1991. NE has been extremely lucky not having any landfalling hurricanes in the past 30 years considering there's been years in the past where NE got struck by 2 hurricanes within weeks of each other.

Nope, the last New England major was Carol in 1954

There have been only five known majors in the Northeast: 1635, 1821, 1869 (and IMO that is questionable - I'd lower it to cat 2), 1938 and Carol 1954.

Oops not sure where I got 6 lol. But if you do look back at pre-columbian records before the 1500s there's evidence that NE was struck by multiple cat3 or stronger storms between the years 1100-1446 as well. It's just a really rare event. Obviously I'm not saying Isaias might do this since it's very hard to get conditions just right to do that.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Powerful storms eventually come up the coast and landfall. Not saying Isaias will be very powerful in the Northeast or Canada but people forget New England's been struck by category 3/4 storms 6 times...since the 1600s lol. But it does happen eventually. Last cat 3 into New England was the 1938 one I believe and the last actual hurricane was Bob in 1991. NE has been extremely lucky not having any landfalling hurricanes in the past 30 years considering there's been years in the past where NE got struck by 2 hurricanes within weeks of each other.

Nope, the last New England major was Carol in 1954

There have been only five known majors in the Northeast: 1635, 1821, 1869 (and IMO that is questionable - I'd lower it to cat 2), 1938 and Carol 1954.

You forgot the Great September Gale of 1815 which was assessed a cat 3. And yeah the Saxby Gale of October 1869 was a cat 2 (most likely) but the September Gale of 1869 (another year with two storms) has been assessed as a cat 3. I once had the link to the study but I lost it. I still have my copy. I think it was called something like - "12 tides in intense North East hurricanes".

Edit - Edna was a cat 2 in 1954 according to reanlysis and Carol a cat 3 (as mentioned).

[FLpanhandle91]

SFMR readings quite a bit higher than flight level winds west of the center.

[chaser1]

Has the center moved to the southwest in the last 30 minutes or just my imagination? Seems like the land interaction and flare up managed to bring the LLC in that direction but I may be wrong.

Land interaction? I see the same.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir

I'm seeing a 275/280 motion. Know what else I'm seeing in the IR view? Seems pretty clear that an eye is trying to develop.

[tiger_deF]

990 mb..

[crimi481]

Strong ridge. Moving it due west. yes? May go to se gulf

[sponger]

990 mb..

Wow!

[FLpanhandle91]

Super tight pressure gradient. Extrapolated pressure 990.8mb. Down quite a bit from last pass.

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks more WNW than NW per recon, but that doesn't necessarily speak to long term motion.

[FireRat]

Poorly stacked barely closed tropical storm moves over mountains and explodes into a hurricane. Yeah not ideal vibes this season

https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/facebook/001/843/833/c02.jpg

I'm glad to see I'm not the only one who thought I was crazy thinking that Isaias was getting better organized as it interacted with Hispaniola, I noticed something was really off earlier this afternoon when seeing the I Storm's satellite imagery as it hit the mountainous island...and man am I worried now about what's to come. 2020 really does seem like out of an apocalyptic movie or sumthin, damn. I have a sinking feeling this I storm will be a major.

[Fancy1001]

I have a feeling that Isaias may become a cat 2 by morning, maybe even undergoing rapid intensification over the next 24 hours.

[abk_0710]

Strong ridge. Moving it due west. yes? May go to se gulf

Possibility?