ATL: LAURA - Models

[Kazmit]

HWRF is going to go nuclear this run.

[PTrackerLA]

TROPICAL STORM LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 72.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2020 0 19.4N 72.7W 1004 33
0000UTC 24.08.2020 12 19.9N 76.7W 1000 43
1200UTC 24.08.2020 24 21.3N 80.4W 999 43
0000UTC 25.08.2020 36 22.8N 84.0W 995 42
1200UTC 25.08.2020 48 24.1N 87.2W 989 55
0000UTC 26.08.2020 60 25.6N 90.0W 981 60
1200UTC 26.08.2020 72 27.5N 92.4W 958 74
0000UTC 27.08.2020 84 29.7N 93.8W 945 80
1200UTC 27.08.2020 96 32.4N 93.9W 970 43
0000UTC 28.08.2020 108 34.7N 93.2W 981 32
1200UTC 28.08.2020 120 36.5N 91.6W 983 42
0000UTC 29.08.2020 132 37.6N 88.1W 979 42
1200UTC 29.08.2020 144 38.3N 82.0W 978 27

That position of the center makes her trek across Cuba huge in terms of track. These next set of model runs are going to be critical IMO.

Big shift east for UKMET and much stronger

[supercane4867]

Not much land interaction with Cuba at all on this HWRF run.

[SoupBone]

TROPICAL STORM LAURA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 72.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2020 0 19.4N 72.7W 1004 33
0000UTC 24.08.2020 12 19.9N 76.7W 1000 43
1200UTC 24.08.2020 24 21.3N 80.4W 999 43
0000UTC 25.08.2020 36 22.8N 84.0W 995 42
1200UTC 25.08.2020 48 24.1N 87.2W 989 55
0000UTC 26.08.2020 60 25.6N 90.0W 981 60
1200UTC 26.08.2020 72 27.5N 92.4W 958 74
0000UTC 27.08.2020 84 29.7N 93.8W 945 80
1200UTC 27.08.2020 96 32.4N 93.9W 970 43
0000UTC 28.08.2020 108 34.7N 93.2W 981 32
1200UTC 28.08.2020 120 36.5N 91.6W 983 42
0000UTC 29.08.2020 132 37.6N 88.1W 979 42
1200UTC 29.08.2020 144 38.3N 82.0W 978 27

That position of the center makes her trek across Cuba huge in terms of track. These next set of model runs are going to be critical IMO.

Big shift east for UKMET and much stronger

You have a link or is the UKMET behind a paywall?

[Nederlander]

HWRF is going to go nuclear this run.

Wow, drops 18mb from 51hr to 60 hr.; definitely on pace for RI.

[toad strangler]

The one consistency so far from last night into today, is that the swings are becoming less and less in the model runs. This is where they'll start to really hone in.

If I had a dollar for every time I heard this one and another surprise came along

I didn't suggest things couldn't change, but the models are clustering in one area right now (SWLA-Texas Border). It's a factual statement. Of course things can change.

The HMON looks like it initialized in the right spot, the HWRF is a little SW of the official center. These two models take forever to update.

I didn't mean anything derogatory by saying that. It just popped out of my mouth after years and years watching models have to play catch up to conditions pretty close in. That's all. For some reason that post of mine got deleted. Oh well. Always enjoyed your posts on this forum SoupBone!

[Jr0d]

Not much land interaction with Cuba at all on this HWRF run.

Keeping it South of Cuba. Yesterday it wanted to keep.in north of Hispaniola.

We will know soon if it's on the right track and the north part of the storm collapses leaving most of the convection South of Cuba.

With these trends, the Florida Keys may not get much...still watching closely. After seeing Marco jog way right of the forecast yesterday, it's tough to put too much faith in the models, despite how clustered they are.

[SoupBone]

HMON at 84 Hours

[SoupBone]

HWRF at 75 Hours

[Highteeld]

Looks like a simulated ERC on the HWRF before landfall. Very interesting.

[gqhebert]

HWRF seems to be coming in towards upper tx coast...a bit south of the last run and much stronger

[Nederlander]

HWRF down to 928 targeting Galveston/Galveston Bay... worst case scenario there

[SoupBone]

HWRF seems to be coming in towards upper tx coast...a bit south of the last run and much stronger

The HWRF initialized SW of the official center, but I don't know how much difference it makes. The HMON was almost spot on.

[Highteeld]

Nuclear HWRF run

[supercane4867]

Most likely a CAT5 by looking at simulated IR. Strongest HWRF run yet.

[Nederlander]

Nuclear HWRF run
https://i.imgur.com/EtGFdbM.png

That would be a disaster for the SE side of Houston. Lots of coastal communities and Refineries/Chemical facilities along the Houston ship channel.

[Highteeld]

Most likely a CAT5 by looking at simulated IR. Strongest HWRF run yet.

Confirmed

[Extratropical94]

Most likely a CAT5 by looking at simulated IR. Strongest HWRF run yet.

138 kt at the surface, 175 kts at 850mb. That's insane

[gqhebert]

HMON came in around Matagorda as a solid cane

[Nederlander]

Nuclear HWRF run
https://i.imgur.com/EtGFdbM.png

That would be a disaster for the SE side of Houston. Lots of coastal communities and Refineries/Chemical facilities along the Houston ship channel.

Also would be really bad for the Golden Triangle too. A lot of communities affected and refining capacity taken offline.