2008-09 Texas Winter Weather Thread

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like Houston will lose the race between the back end of significant precip and air cold enough to support sleet/snow...

Gosh Darnit!!! I just knew I would wake up to some frozen precip... I mean Bryan was getting on the action at 2AM. Why not us...

However, light precip is starting to develop back near San Antonio... there is still hope.

http://www.accuweather.com/radar-large. ... te&large=1

[jasons2k]

Looks like Houston will lose the race between the back end of significant precip and air cold enough to support sleet/snow...

I agree - the precip. shield looks like it is really collapsing fast.

Hi Jen, I don't know what the logic was but I have seen something like this a million times (here and in Dallas) and it goes something like this:

1-2 days before the "event", the models show frozen precip. very close to the area but the atmosphere drying out just before it's cold enough for any snow. The forecast then prudently calls for a cold rain with some frozen precip. possible just to the west and north.

Then, as the front moves through, temperatures plummet, and snow and ice gets reported in places like Brenham, Austin, and College Station (or substitute Weatherford & Gainesville for the DFW group). This is just what was expected all along but for some reason said forecaster gets all excited - it's so close and moving in - we have to hurry-up and change the forecast to reflect these "changes". So, the forecast gets switched 3, 6, or 12 hours before the precip ends.

Then, quickly, the back edge of the precip. moves through, usually a couple of hours faster than scheduled, and Houston (or DFW) is left with nothing but a cold rain and the public is left scratching it's collective head wondering what happened to all the snow that was forecasted.

Moral of the story: sometimes it's best to just go with what's been forecasted all along instead of making a knee-jerk, last second decision.

[JenBayles]

jasons, that was a succint, and I suspect very accurate assessment of what I was thinking this morning.

I thought last night's forecast was pretty much on the money. It appears they should have stuck with it. Never a dull moment in weather, eh?

[Stratosphere747]

Aggieland -

[Ed Mahmoud]

Snow Crushes Aggie Land!



Winter Weather Devastates Austin!!

[jasons2k]

I'm watching the core of the upper low on WV and I'm just not optimistic at all about more precip developing. I see drying to its north filling it in, and besides, it may completely miss us to the south anyway at this rate.

[JenBayles]

methinks you are right jason. Better luck next time for Houston - and I do feel bullish for some kind of frozen stuff here this winter. Can't exactly tell you why, but my arthritis pain is generally right.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like Houston will lose the race between the back end of significant precip and air cold enough to support sleet/snow...

I agree - the precip. shield looks like it is really collapsing fast.

Hi Jen, I don't know what the logic was but I have seen something like this a million times (here and in Dallas) and it goes something like this:

1-2 days before the "event", the models show frozen precip. very close to the area but the atmosphere drying out just before it's cold enough for any snow. The forecast then prudently calls for a cold rain with some frozen precip. possible just to the west and north.

Then, as the front moves through, temperatures plummet, and snow and ice gets reported in places like Brenham, Austin, and College Station (or substitute Weatherford & Gainesville for the DFW group). This is just what was expected all along but for some reason said forecaster gets all excited - it's so close and moving in - we have to hurry-up and change the forecast to reflect these "changes". So, the forecast gets switched 3, 6, or 12 hours before the precip ends.

Then, quickly, the back edge of the precip. moves through, usually a couple of hours faster than scheduled, and Houston (or DFW) is left with nothing but a cold rain and the public is left scratching it's collective head wondering what happened to all the snow that was forecasted.

Moral of the story: sometimes it's best to just go with what's been forecasted all along instead of making a knee-jerk, last second decision.

Yes, the same thing happened several times when I lived there. Here are a few events I can remember quite vividly...

Christmas 2007
Forecast = rain mixing with snow
Actual = just rain

Easter 2007
Forecast = widespread sleet/snow
Actual = a handful of sleet pellets mixed with rain

March 2008
Forecast = widespread sleet/snow
Actual = 5 minutes of flurries at 5:30 in the morning

[Ed Mahmoud]

¡Que Lastima!

Maybe one of those isolated and weak echoes between us and SAT will drop a stray flurry, but it is over and HOU missed it.

[JenBayles]

I'm trying to remember the last time Houston saw a serious ice event. I remember February 1989 because Dave had to pick me up at the airport. When I landed, nobody was at the gate and the passengers were not notified that conditions on the ground were extremely hazardous. Dave showed up about 20 minutes later with his eyes bugging out of his head from witnessing the destruction derby on all the freeway overpasses. Being a Houston boy, he actually thought his 4 wheel drive vehicle was what got him through. More like the grace of God!

There was another one on either Dec. 23 or 24 in 1990 or 1991. That was a memorable drive to work! I almost made it until I hit the hill in the road on Eldridge that goes over Addicks Dam. I stopped about 200 yards back and watched several people try for a running start only to lose traction at the top and slide back down - right into other waiting vehicles. Nope. No work for me. I turned around and made it back home at about 15 mph.

I remember 2 other major ice events in the early 90's but can't recall the exact years. We lost some limbs off our live oaks and I'll never forget the sound of pine tree limbs in the neighborhood crashing to the ground.

The only good thing about ice is that it's a great insulator for plants. No need to cover them as the ice does the protecting. Still, I HATE cold wet weather!

[KatDaddy]

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1121 AM CST WED DEC 10 2008

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-102330-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-
HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-
GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...
PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
1121 AM CST WED DEC 10 2008

...A BLAST OF WINTER COMES TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

A COLD AFTERNOON IS ON TAP WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. AT 11 AM TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING 34 TO 39 DEGREES
ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...STRONGER NEAR
THE COAST WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES FEEL LIKE 25 TO 37 MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX
LATE THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 MPH INLAND.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY
LIGHT RAIN CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AND OR A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW
AND RAIN. THE SNOW SHOULD BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM FREEPORT TO PASADENA TO LIBERTY AND MAINLY
FROM AROUND 6 TO 9 PM. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MID EVENING. THE SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
VERY LITTLE IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE ON ANY SURFACE OTHER THAN IN
FIELDS... YARDS...AND ON THE TOPS OF CARS. NO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
COLLECT ON ROADS. ANY LEFT OVER WATER ON ROADS COULD POSSIBLY
BEGIN TO FREEZE AFTER 11 PM FOR ELEVATED ROADS AS TEMPERATURES
DROP TO NEAR FREEZING.

[Kludge]

I'm watching the core of the upper low on WV and I'm just not optimistic at all about more precip developing. I see drying to its north filling it in, and besides, it may completely miss us to the south anyway at this rate.

I agree... the WV doesn't look promising. But the last few frames of the visible appear to show some wrap around over the top of the low. If this is the beginning of it sucking in some Gulf moisture, maybe there's still a bit of hope. Maybe that's what the models were picking up on, and the NWSHGX is going with in their latest special statement regarding this evening.

[southerngale]

Dang it... I knew that forecast was too good to be true. The precip to my west is thinning out while the temps continue to drop. Currently 35º here, and light rain.

I wanted to build a little snowman. I haven't been able to since I was a little kid. *sniff sniff*


Congrats to those who got some fun winter weather, though.

[PTrackerLA]

SG it's not over according to 12z GFS. Look at the precip forecast for the next 60 hours:



Pretty sure we're gonna see "something" frozen fall out of the sky before it's all over and the weather channel is claiming an inch of slushy accumulation tonight .

[southerngale]

Where's it coming from? The NWS explained in their discussion that part of the reason for the 70% chance sleet/snow was based on the precip shield expanding in Texas as it headed this way. It was doing that when they made the forecast, but it has since thinned out. I really, really, REALLY want to see some snow, but the radar isn't very encouraging. I hope I'm wrong.

[JenBayles]

Latest forecast for west Houston:

This Afternoon: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tonight: A chance of rain and snow showers before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Wind chill values as low as 20. North wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

[Tireman4]

1121 AM CST WED DEC 10 2008

...A BLAST OF WINTER COMES TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

A COLD AFTERNOON IS ON TAP WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. AT 11 AM TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING 34 TO 39 DEGREES
ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH...STRONGER NEAR
THE COAST WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES FEEL LIKE 25 TO 37 MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX
LATE THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 MPH INLAND.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY
LIGHT RAIN CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AND OR A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW
AND RAIN. THE SNOW SHOULD BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM FREEPORT TO PASADENA TO LIBERTY AND MAINLY
FROM AROUND 6 TO 9 PM. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MID EVENING. THE SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
VERY LITTLE IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE ON ANY SURFACE OTHER THAN IN
FIELDS... YARDS...AND ON THE TOPS OF CARS. NO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
COLLECT ON ROADS. ANY LEFT OVER WATER ON ROADS COULD POSSIBLY
BEGIN TO FREEZE AFTER 11 PM FOR ELEVATED ROADS AS TEMPERATURES
DROP TO NEAR FREEZING.

This might clear some of it up.

[jinftl]

After tonight, there is no precip in the forecast....so i would think that if frozen precip is going to mix in and fall...it has to be in the next 12-18 hours....not sure if there is a 60-hour window for it.

NWS Forecast for: Houston TX
Issued by: National Weather Service Houston, TX
Last Update: 10:47 am CST Dec 10, 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This Afternoon: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tonight: A chance of rain and snow showers, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 53. North wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 37. North wind around 5 mph.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 61. North wind around 5 mph becoming east.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 45.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 67.

SG it's not over according to 12z GFS. Look at the precip forecast for the next 60 hours:



Pretty sure we're gonna see "something" frozen fall out of the sky before it's all over and the weather channel is claiming an inch of slushy accumulation tonight .

[southerngale]

That's true, jinftl, but you're giving Houston's forecast. Beaumont is well east of Houston, and falls under the Lake Charles NWS.

*edit: And I'm not too sure about that high. The temperature continued to drop all morning and has been steady at 35º for a while now.


Currently, my forecast still calls for more precip chances than Houston. That could change, but they didn't change it in the morning update.

This Afternoon: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 43. North wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tonight: Rain likely before 9pm, then rain likely, possibly mixed with snow and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 34. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Thursday: A slight chance of rain and snow before 9am, then a slight chance of rain between 9am and noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

[vbhoutex]

Current radar shows mixed witner precip moving into Houston proper now, but I am not seeing any of it reach the ground in my area and I am already under the pink on the radar. Temp is starting to lower again at the house after a whopping 33.9ºf high so far today. Perhaps there is hope???

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/77080?from=36hour_map_large&zoom=7&interactiveMapLayer=radar