Possible Gulf Develpoment Next Weekend???

[Nederlander]

Two things.. according to this graphic, pressure look to be dropping, we will see if the trend continues..

Also... check out the western tip of cuba on this WV loop.... Whats going on here?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[Aric Dunn]

Looks to be winding down.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ar_floater

im not picking on anyone in particular.. but systems when organizing always flair up and down... its normal and has to happen it involves a little physics ..

i see the step thats happening now as more of a sign its trying to organizing ..

[Aric Dunn]

Two things.. according to this graphic, pressure look to be dropping, we will see if the trend continues..

Also... check out the western tip of cuba on this WV loop.... Whats going on here?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

its the wave interacting with the seabreeze thunderstorms that occurred over cuba today and they have started to rotate around the weak circ ..

[dixiebreeze]

Hurricane Elena was an Atlantic hurricane that produced heavy damage along the Gulf Coast of the United States in August and September of the 1985 Atlantic hurricane season. The fifth tropical storm, fourth hurricane, and first major hurricane of the season, Elena developed near Cuba from a tropical wave. It quickly strengthened, reaching peak winds of 125 mph (205 km/h) after stalling in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Elena turned to the west-northwest, and ultimately made landfall near Biloxi, Mississippi, as a Category 3 hurricane. The storm quickly dissipated over land.

[Frank P]

Yes, but the storm surge in Biloxi was only ~8 feet.. probably due to the size of the wind field of the storm and the steep angle of approach of the storm... came in from the ESE direction... surge was much less than expected for a Cat 2/3 storm...

[Frank P]

Convection picking back up again... in the northwest section of the overall broad "circulation" as it appears on the sat loops....

[Aric Dunn]

Convection picking back up again... in the northwest section of the overall broad "circulation" as it appears on the sat loops....

yep and it shows on radar..

[Aric Dunn]

wow this thing on sat is really getting its act together fast.. are we looking at another humberto ... lol

[TampaCE]

here is radar from ft myers / naples that may be helpful:

http://www.winknews.com/weather/interactive

[Aric Dunn]

I love being able to watch these form on radar..

[Frank P]

That's an interesting radar loop.. sure looks like its trying to develop some banding features on the northern half

[Aric Dunn]

That's an interesting radar loop.. sure looks like its trying to develop some banding features on the northern half

the latest visible is amazing from where is was 4 hours ago
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/se/loop-rgb.html

[KWT]

I think we may get an invest out of this fairly soon, certainly if the convection can hold for a little longer.

[Aric Dunn]

I think we may get an invest out of this fairly soon, certainly if the convection can hold for a little longer.

if it holds... its increasing !!

[MGC]

Yikes! Sure does appear to be some banding in the convection. Be interesting to see what the NHC says at 8pm. Have to keep an eye on this as it appears to be moving to the NW.......MGC

[Sanibel]

Tropical clouds overhead here. Low gray rainy banding clouds. Blustery.

[Aric Dunn]

Yikes! Sure does appear to be some banding in the convection. Be interesting to see what the NHC says at 8pm. Have to keep an eye on this as it appears to be moving to the NW.......MGC

yeah .. banding is organizing crazy fast..

radar is showing a possible broad center trying to form wsw of Ft myers... 50 miles

[Lurker]

We have been pounded here off and on all day from this. Torrential rain.

[Aric Dunn]

there still saying low chance..



A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
INTERACTING WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WHERE SURFACE PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL. THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME AND ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[ronjon]

Yikes! Sure does appear to be some banding in the convection. Be interesting to see what the NHC says at 8pm. Have to keep an eye on this as it appears to be moving to the NW.......MGC

yeah .. banding is organizing crazy fast..

radar is showing a possible broad center trying to form wsw of Ft myers... 50 miles

Agree Aric - spiral banding rotating around a broad center offshore of Ft Myers. Not sure it'll have enough real estate to ramp up much as its progged to head NW into Mobile area. Lowest pressure near Ft Myers but still not impressive - 29.96

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/OneKM.aspx?location=USFL0438&animate=true