MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0358
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-SOUTH CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 240057Z - 240200Z
NEW WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
TO SOUTH CENTRAL TX. THE WATCH FARTHER N SHOULD BE A SEVERE TSTM
WATCH...WHILE A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO
THE SW OF WW 82.
SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM VICINITY OF
DRT NEWD TO THE ARKLATEX INTO WRN AR WITH TSTMS EXTENDING SWWD ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY TO TRAVIS COUNTY WHERE A STORM PRODUCED 1 INCH
DIAMETER HAIL AT 2328Z. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ADDITIONAL
CU/TCU DEVELOPING SWWD FROM TRAVIS COUNTY. THIS BOUNDARY MARKS THE
WRN EXTENT OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MEANWHILE...A SECOND
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FARTHER W AND EXTENDED FROM NW TX /20 W SPS/ TO
NEAR SJT TO THE TX BIG BEND REGION. AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD BAND
EXTENDED SWWD FROM THIS LATTER BOUNDARY...LIKELY INDICATIVE OF THE
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF A
MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH... CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN
CHIHUAHUA/FAR SW TX. THIS ASCENT AND SECOND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE EWD THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH/OVERTAKING THE
BOUNDARY FARTHER E. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ATOP
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL AID IN MAINTAINING MODERATE
INSTABILITY.
THE TRAVIS COUNTY STORM AND TCU EXTENDING SWWD MAY BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING SW TX
TROUGH. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR EVEN MORE ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THIS REGION. STRENGTHENING SWLY
MID LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50
KT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS /SFC-1 KM/ ARE
RELATIVELY WEAK AT THIS TIME ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX...AN EXPECTED
INCREASE SLY WINDS VEERING AND ALSO INCREASING WITH HEIGHT WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE TROUGH
SWEEPS EWD LATER THIS EVENING/ TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN...HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS /UNTIL ABOUT MID EVENING/.
..PETERS.. 04/24/2010
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 29810073 32919854 32989758 32849632 30969674 29539796
29099918 29130008 29810073
Severe Weather Threat. April 21st-25th, 2010 High Risk!
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
MGC
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5899
- Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
- Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.
Re: Severe Weather Threat. April 21st-25th, 2010 Moderate Risk!
LL jet is really blowing. Moisture should not be a problem tonight and tomorrow. Winds are screaming off the GOM this evening......MGC
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather Threat. April 21st-25th, 2010 Moderate Risk!
SPC AC 240101
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
VALID 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NE
TX...AR...SWRN TN...WRN/NRN MS...CENTRAL-NRN LA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM NRN NEB TO
LOWEST OH VALLEY...MID-LOWER MS VALLEY TO S-CENTRAL TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS...DOMINATED BY
MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED AT 23Z INVOF ITR. CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD TO SEWD ACROSS WRN KS THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD...REMAINING NEARLY COLLOCATED WITH SFC LOW. OCCLUDED FRONT
ARCS NEWD OVER SWRN NEB THEN EWD ACROSS NRN NEB...WITH WARM FRONT
SEWD OVER NRN IA AND NERN MO TO S-CENTRAL IL. WARM FRONT IS FCST TO
DRIFT NWD TO CENTRAL PORTIONS IA/IL OVERNIGHT. COMBINED COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE ARCS SEWD FROM TRIPLE POINT OVER ERN NEB...ACROSS
EXTREME E-CENTRAL KS...THEN SWD ACROSS SERN OK. THIS BOUNDARY HAS
BECOME QUASISTATIONARY FROM NERN THROUGH S-CENTRAL TX TO RIO GRANDE
VALLEY JUST SE DRT...AS PRESSURE FALLS ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT IN
ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW PIVOTING EWD OVER FAR W
TX AND CHIHUAHUA. AS UPPER PERTURBATION EJECTS EWD THEN NEWD OVER
SWRN THROUGH N-CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT...FRONT WILL RESUME SEWD MOTION
ACROSS S TX AND MIDDLE TX COAST...REACHING TO NEAR SHV AND FSM BY
END OF PERIOD.
...LOWER MS VALLEY...WRN GULF COAST THROUGH OZARKS...
REF WWS 82-83 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS...AS WELL AS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 357 RELATED TO EXPIRING WW 80 FOR NEAR-TERM
THREAT IN AND NEAR THOSE AREAS.
CURRENT THINKING IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS FOR POTENTIAL
RAMPING UP OF OVERNIGHT SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT...AFTER 06Z IN MDT CATEGORICAL RISK AREA. DURING 09-12Z
TIME FRAME AND BEYOND...AS TRAILING WAVE EJECTS FROM BASE OF
SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH AND GETS CLOSER...850 MB FLOW REASONABLY IS
FCST TO STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AND ALSO TO BACK SOMEWHAT. THIS
WILL EXPAND ALREADY-FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...IN
TURN...FURTHER ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR STG/LONG-LASTING TORNADOES IN
ALREADY MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT WITH INFLOW ROOTED AT OR VERY
CLOSE TO SFC.
...CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER MO VALLEY...
SVR POTENTIAL FCST TO DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING IN AND NEAR
EXPIRING WW 81. INITIAL CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY IS FCST
TO WEAKEN ALONG/AHEAD OF OCCLUDED FRONT WITH LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC
HEATING...ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ALOFT WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SFC-BASED PARCELS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS
NRN NEB. SVR POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO PERSIST LONGER OVER LOWER MO
VALLEY REGION WHERE STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- E.G. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAGNITUDES NEAR 60 KT -- WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH MLCAPE AOA
1000 J/KG AND FAVORABLY SMALL CINH FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. REF WWS
84-85...SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 356 AND SUBSEQUENT WW-RELATED
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM FCST INFO FROM NEB INTO WRN IL.
..EDWARDS.. 04/24/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0108Z (9:08PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
VALID 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NE
TX...AR...SWRN TN...WRN/NRN MS...CENTRAL-NRN LA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM NRN NEB TO
LOWEST OH VALLEY...MID-LOWER MS VALLEY TO S-CENTRAL TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS...DOMINATED BY
MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED AT 23Z INVOF ITR. CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD TO SEWD ACROSS WRN KS THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD...REMAINING NEARLY COLLOCATED WITH SFC LOW. OCCLUDED FRONT
ARCS NEWD OVER SWRN NEB THEN EWD ACROSS NRN NEB...WITH WARM FRONT
SEWD OVER NRN IA AND NERN MO TO S-CENTRAL IL. WARM FRONT IS FCST TO
DRIFT NWD TO CENTRAL PORTIONS IA/IL OVERNIGHT. COMBINED COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE ARCS SEWD FROM TRIPLE POINT OVER ERN NEB...ACROSS
EXTREME E-CENTRAL KS...THEN SWD ACROSS SERN OK. THIS BOUNDARY HAS
BECOME QUASISTATIONARY FROM NERN THROUGH S-CENTRAL TX TO RIO GRANDE
VALLEY JUST SE DRT...AS PRESSURE FALLS ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT IN
ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW PIVOTING EWD OVER FAR W
TX AND CHIHUAHUA. AS UPPER PERTURBATION EJECTS EWD THEN NEWD OVER
SWRN THROUGH N-CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT...FRONT WILL RESUME SEWD MOTION
ACROSS S TX AND MIDDLE TX COAST...REACHING TO NEAR SHV AND FSM BY
END OF PERIOD.
...LOWER MS VALLEY...WRN GULF COAST THROUGH OZARKS...
REF WWS 82-83 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS...AS WELL AS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 357 RELATED TO EXPIRING WW 80 FOR NEAR-TERM
THREAT IN AND NEAR THOSE AREAS.
CURRENT THINKING IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS FOR POTENTIAL
RAMPING UP OF OVERNIGHT SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT...AFTER 06Z IN MDT CATEGORICAL RISK AREA. DURING 09-12Z
TIME FRAME AND BEYOND...AS TRAILING WAVE EJECTS FROM BASE OF
SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH AND GETS CLOSER...850 MB FLOW REASONABLY IS
FCST TO STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AND ALSO TO BACK SOMEWHAT. THIS
WILL EXPAND ALREADY-FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...IN
TURN...FURTHER ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR STG/LONG-LASTING TORNADOES IN
ALREADY MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT WITH INFLOW ROOTED AT OR VERY
CLOSE TO SFC.
...CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER MO VALLEY...
SVR POTENTIAL FCST TO DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING IN AND NEAR
EXPIRING WW 81. INITIAL CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY IS FCST
TO WEAKEN ALONG/AHEAD OF OCCLUDED FRONT WITH LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC
HEATING...ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ALOFT WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SFC-BASED PARCELS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS
NRN NEB. SVR POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO PERSIST LONGER OVER LOWER MO
VALLEY REGION WHERE STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- E.G. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAGNITUDES NEAR 60 KT -- WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH MLCAPE AOA
1000 J/KG AND FAVORABLY SMALL CINH FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. REF WWS
84-85...SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 356 AND SUBSEQUENT WW-RELATED
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM FCST INFO FROM NEB INTO WRN IL.
..EDWARDS.. 04/24/2010
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0108Z (9:08PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
0 likes
-
srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: Severe Weather Threat. April 21st-25th, 2010 Moderate Risk!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0358
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-SOUTH CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 240057Z - 240200Z
NEW WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
TO SOUTH CENTRAL TX. THE WATCH FARTHER N SHOULD BE A SEVERE TSTM
WATCH...WHILE A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO
THE SW OF WW 82.
SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM VICINITY OF
DRT NEWD TO THE ARKLATEX INTO WRN AR WITH TSTMS EXTENDING SWWD ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY TO TRAVIS COUNTY WHERE A STORM PRODUCED 1 INCH
DIAMETER HAIL AT 2328Z. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ADDITIONAL
CU/TCU DEVELOPING SWWD FROM TRAVIS COUNTY. THIS BOUNDARY MARKS THE
WRN EXTENT OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MEANWHILE...A SECOND
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FARTHER W AND EXTENDED FROM NW TX /20 W SPS/ TO
NEAR SJT TO THE TX BIG BEND REGION. AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD BAND
EXTENDED SWWD FROM THIS LATTER BOUNDARY...LIKELY INDICATIVE OF THE
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF A
MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH... CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN
CHIHUAHUA/FAR SW TX. THIS ASCENT AND SECOND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE EWD THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH/OVERTAKING THE
BOUNDARY FARTHER E. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ATOP
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL AID IN MAINTAINING MODERATE
INSTABILITY.
THE TRAVIS COUNTY STORM AND TCU EXTENDING SWWD MAY BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING SW TX
TROUGH. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR EVEN MORE ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THIS REGION. STRENGTHENING SWLY
MID LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50
KT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS /SFC-1 KM/ ARE
RELATIVELY WEAK AT THIS TIME ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX...AN EXPECTED
INCREASE SLY WINDS VEERING AND ALSO INCREASING WITH HEIGHT WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE TROUGH
SWEEPS EWD LATER THIS EVENING/ TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN...HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS /UNTIL ABOUT MID EVENING/.
..PETERS.. 04/24/2010
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-SOUTH CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 240057Z - 240200Z
NEW WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
TO SOUTH CENTRAL TX. THE WATCH FARTHER N SHOULD BE A SEVERE TSTM
WATCH...WHILE A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO
THE SW OF WW 82.
SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM VICINITY OF
DRT NEWD TO THE ARKLATEX INTO WRN AR WITH TSTMS EXTENDING SWWD ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY TO TRAVIS COUNTY WHERE A STORM PRODUCED 1 INCH
DIAMETER HAIL AT 2328Z. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ADDITIONAL
CU/TCU DEVELOPING SWWD FROM TRAVIS COUNTY. THIS BOUNDARY MARKS THE
WRN EXTENT OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MEANWHILE...A SECOND
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FARTHER W AND EXTENDED FROM NW TX /20 W SPS/ TO
NEAR SJT TO THE TX BIG BEND REGION. AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD BAND
EXTENDED SWWD FROM THIS LATTER BOUNDARY...LIKELY INDICATIVE OF THE
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF A
MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH... CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NRN
CHIHUAHUA/FAR SW TX. THIS ASCENT AND SECOND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE EWD THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH/OVERTAKING THE
BOUNDARY FARTHER E. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING EWD ATOP
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL AID IN MAINTAINING MODERATE
INSTABILITY.
THE TRAVIS COUNTY STORM AND TCU EXTENDING SWWD MAY BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING SW TX
TROUGH. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR EVEN MORE ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THIS REGION. STRENGTHENING SWLY
MID LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50
KT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WINDS /SFC-1 KM/ ARE
RELATIVELY WEAK AT THIS TIME ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX...AN EXPECTED
INCREASE SLY WINDS VEERING AND ALSO INCREASING WITH HEIGHT WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE TROUGH
SWEEPS EWD LATER THIS EVENING/ TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN...HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS /UNTIL ABOUT MID EVENING/.
..PETERS.. 04/24/2010
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
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Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
TeamPlayersBlue
- Category 5
- Posts: 3445
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
- Location: Denver/Applewood, CO
Nacogdoches looks to be under the gun for some supercell like storms
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0359
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0837 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AREAS OF CENTRAL-ERN FL PANHANDLE /PFN TO
AAF/
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 240137Z - 240230Z
STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD AFFECT COASTAL AREAS OF THE CENTRAL-ERN FL
PANHANDLE FROM VICINITY OF PFN TO AAF. GIVEN SMALL SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL THREAT AREA...A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT WARRANTED.
AT 0130Z...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A WELL DEFINED BOW ECHO
TRACKING ESEWD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. CURRENT TRACK
OF THIS FEATURE IS ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHICH EXTENDS SEWD
INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
CONTINUE ALONG THE SWRN FLANK OF THIS BOW /I.E. CLOSER TO THE INFLOW
OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS/...A WLY COMPONENT TO THE MEAN WINDS
SUGGESTS THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS BOW COULD AFFECT IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS OF THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE /AROUND PFN BETWEEN 0230-03Z/. IF
THE BOW MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH...THEN IT SHOULD REACH GULF/FRANKLIN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z.
..PETERS.. 04/24/2010
ATTN...WFO...TAE...
LAT...LON 30278642 30278572 30048525 29708486 29358499 29248555
29588644 29678681 30278642
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0837 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL AREAS OF CENTRAL-ERN FL PANHANDLE /PFN TO
AAF/
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 240137Z - 240230Z
STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD AFFECT COASTAL AREAS OF THE CENTRAL-ERN FL
PANHANDLE FROM VICINITY OF PFN TO AAF. GIVEN SMALL SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL THREAT AREA...A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT WARRANTED.
AT 0130Z...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A WELL DEFINED BOW ECHO
TRACKING ESEWD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. CURRENT TRACK
OF THIS FEATURE IS ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT WHICH EXTENDS SEWD
INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
CONTINUE ALONG THE SWRN FLANK OF THIS BOW /I.E. CLOSER TO THE INFLOW
OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS/...A WLY COMPONENT TO THE MEAN WINDS
SUGGESTS THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS BOW COULD AFFECT IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS OF THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE /AROUND PFN BETWEEN 0230-03Z/. IF
THE BOW MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH...THEN IT SHOULD REACH GULF/FRANKLIN
COUNTIES AFTER 03Z.
..PETERS.. 04/24/2010
ATTN...WFO...TAE...
LAT...LON 30278642 30278572 30048525 29708486 29358499 29248555
29588644 29678681 30278642
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0360
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0922 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN-N CENTRAL NEB AND FAR WRN IA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 85...
VALID 240222Z - 240315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 85 CONTINUES.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM/EVOLVE ALONG OCCLUDED FRONT
OVER MAINLY ERN NEB. ONE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE
OMAHA METRO AREA HAS RECENTLY DISPLAYED BOWING TENDENCIES...WHILE
CELLS TO ITS N-NW AND S HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT MORE DISCRETE.
INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES GENERALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 DEG F AND MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM
1000-1500 J/KG /PER SFCOA DATA/. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE
TENDED TO BACK TOWARDS ELY AND INCREASE IN SPEED...LEADING TO
IMPROVING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH 0-1 KM
SRH VALUES AROUND 200 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT BASED
ON OMAHA VWP. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HRS ACROSS WW 85.
..GARNER.. 04/24/2010
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 43259964 42099550 40489550 41669966 43259964
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0922 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN-N CENTRAL NEB AND FAR WRN IA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 85...
VALID 240222Z - 240315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 85 CONTINUES.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM/EVOLVE ALONG OCCLUDED FRONT
OVER MAINLY ERN NEB. ONE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE
OMAHA METRO AREA HAS RECENTLY DISPLAYED BOWING TENDENCIES...WHILE
CELLS TO ITS N-NW AND S HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT MORE DISCRETE.
INSTABILITY AXIS RESIDES GENERALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 DEG F AND MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM
1000-1500 J/KG /PER SFCOA DATA/. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE
TENDED TO BACK TOWARDS ELY AND INCREASE IN SPEED...LEADING TO
IMPROVING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH 0-1 KM
SRH VALUES AROUND 200 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT BASED
ON OMAHA VWP. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HRS ACROSS WW 85.
..GARNER.. 04/24/2010
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 43259964 42099550 40489550 41669966 43259964
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-
srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: Severe Weather Threat. April 21st-25th, 2010 Moderate Risk!
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 86
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
935 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
TORNADO WATCH 86 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
TXC013-015-019-021-029-031-041-051-053-055-089-091-123-127-149-
163-171-177-185-187-209-225-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-313-323-
325-339-373-385-407-453-455-463-471-473-477-491-493-507-
241100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0086.100424T0235Z-100424T1100Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA AUSTIN BANDERA
BASTROP BEXAR BLANCO
BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET
CALDWELL COLORADO COMAL
DEWITT DIMMIT FAYETTE
FRIO GILLESPIE GONZALES
GRIMES GUADALUPE HAYS
HOUSTON KARNES KENDALL
KERR KINNEY LAVACA
LEE LLANO MADISON
MAVERICK MEDINA MONTGOMERY
POLK REAL SAN JACINTO
TRAVIS TRINITY UVALDE
WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON
WILLIAMSON WILSON ZAVALA
$$
ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
935 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
TORNADO WATCH 86 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
TXC013-015-019-021-029-031-041-051-053-055-089-091-123-127-149-
163-171-177-185-187-209-225-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-313-323-
325-339-373-385-407-453-455-463-471-473-477-491-493-507-
241100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0086.100424T0235Z-100424T1100Z/
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATASCOSA AUSTIN BANDERA
BASTROP BEXAR BLANCO
BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET
CALDWELL COLORADO COMAL
DEWITT DIMMIT FAYETTE
FRIO GILLESPIE GONZALES
GRIMES GUADALUPE HAYS
HOUSTON KARNES KENDALL
KERR KINNEY LAVACA
LEE LLANO MADISON
MAVERICK MEDINA MONTGOMERY
POLK REAL SAN JACINTO
TRAVIS TRINITY UVALDE
WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON
WILLIAMSON WILSON ZAVALA
$$
ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 86
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
935 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 935 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST OF COLLEGE
STATION TEXAS TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HONDO TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 82...WW 83...WW 84...WW
85...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS NOW FORMING E OF THE TX BIG BEND EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND MOVE/DEVELOP EWD THROUGH EARLY SAT AS SW TX UPR TROUGH
CONTINUES NEWD. STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD ON SE SIDE OF TROUGH AND
INCREASING QUALITY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW WITH EWD EXTENT
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AS THE STORMS MERGE INTO
BROKEN BANDS/CLUSTERS. THE SUPERCELLS MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.
...CORFIDI
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 86
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
935 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 935 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST OF COLLEGE
STATION TEXAS TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HONDO TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 82...WW 83...WW 84...WW
85...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS NOW FORMING E OF THE TX BIG BEND EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND MOVE/DEVELOP EWD THROUGH EARLY SAT AS SW TX UPR TROUGH
CONTINUES NEWD. STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD ON SE SIDE OF TROUGH AND
INCREASING QUALITY OF LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW WITH EWD EXTENT
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AS THE STORMS MERGE INTO
BROKEN BANDS/CLUSTERS. THE SUPERCELLS MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.
...CORFIDI
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-
srainhoutx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6919
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
- Location: Haywood County, NC
- Contact:
Re: Severe Weather Threat. April 21st-25th, 2010 Moderate Risk!
0 likes
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php
Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0361
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL-NERN KS INTO WRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 240303Z - 240330Z
NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND NERN KS
INTO WRN-NWRN MO.
02Z SURFACE AND STREAMLINE ANALYSES INDICATED A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE/BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ERN NEB SSEWD THROUGH FAR
ERN KS TO NERN OK...WHILE A SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SERN
NEB THROUGH NRN MO TO CENTRAL/SRN IL. LIGHTNING DATA/ COOLING CLOUD
TOPS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL-SERN KS IS SUGGESTIVE OF
APPARENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING NNEWD THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT
INTO DISCUSSION AREA. CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDED
FROM ERN NEB INTO FAR ERN KS AND NWRN-WRN MO WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 45 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS MORE THAN CONDUCIVE
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. CURRENT THINKING SUGGESTS ONGOING STORMS OVER
SERN KS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY ONCE THEY REACH THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY OVER ERN KS/NWRN MO. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD
ALSO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN NWRN MO TO SERN NEB
AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT SPREADS NNEWD FROM CENTRAL-SERN KS.
..PETERS.. 04/24/2010
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38259569 39389641 39939681 40209619 40569522 40509458
39689385 38949341 38249364 37949429 37989535 38259569
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL-NERN KS INTO WRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 240303Z - 240330Z
NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND NERN KS
INTO WRN-NWRN MO.
02Z SURFACE AND STREAMLINE ANALYSES INDICATED A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE/BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ERN NEB SSEWD THROUGH FAR
ERN KS TO NERN OK...WHILE A SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SERN
NEB THROUGH NRN MO TO CENTRAL/SRN IL. LIGHTNING DATA/ COOLING CLOUD
TOPS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL-SERN KS IS SUGGESTIVE OF
APPARENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING NNEWD THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT
INTO DISCUSSION AREA. CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDED
FROM ERN NEB INTO FAR ERN KS AND NWRN-WRN MO WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 45 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS MORE THAN CONDUCIVE
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. CURRENT THINKING SUGGESTS ONGOING STORMS OVER
SERN KS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY ONCE THEY REACH THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY OVER ERN KS/NWRN MO. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD
ALSO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN NWRN MO TO SERN NEB
AS DEEP LAYER ASCENT SPREADS NNEWD FROM CENTRAL-SERN KS.
..PETERS.. 04/24/2010
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38259569 39389641 39939681 40209619 40569522 40509458
39689385 38949341 38249364 37949429 37989535 38259569
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-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0362
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS INTO WRN-CENTRAL AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 240332Z - 240430Z
A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MS INTO WRN AND CENTRAL AL.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED TSTMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
N THROUGH E OF A WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL AR THROUGH
NRN MS TO CENTRAL AL AT 03Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WITHIN A WAA
REGIME...WITH FURTHER MOISTENING EXPECTED ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE
UPSTREAM AIR MASS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING/
OVERNIGHT AS THE S/SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN. ALTHOUGH STORMS
ARE MAINLY ELEVATED AT THE PRESENT TIME...CONTINUED MOISTENING FROM
THE SW WITHIN PERSISTENT WAA SUGGESTS STORMS COULD BECOME ROOTED
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION...A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION. MODERATE
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AROUND 50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR COULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IF
ACTIVITY CAN BECOME ROOTED CLOSER TO THE SURFACE.
..PETERS.. 04/24/2010
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 33688972 33688814 33528696 32898626 32028638 31238772
31158878 31848949 32759013 33688972
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS INTO WRN-CENTRAL AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 240332Z - 240430Z
A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MS INTO WRN AND CENTRAL AL.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED TSTMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
N THROUGH E OF A WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL AR THROUGH
NRN MS TO CENTRAL AL AT 03Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WITHIN A WAA
REGIME...WITH FURTHER MOISTENING EXPECTED ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE
UPSTREAM AIR MASS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING/
OVERNIGHT AS THE S/SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN. ALTHOUGH STORMS
ARE MAINLY ELEVATED AT THE PRESENT TIME...CONTINUED MOISTENING FROM
THE SW WITHIN PERSISTENT WAA SUGGESTS STORMS COULD BECOME ROOTED
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION...A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL
GULF COAST STATES SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION. MODERATE
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AROUND 50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR COULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IF
ACTIVITY CAN BECOME ROOTED CLOSER TO THE SURFACE.
..PETERS.. 04/24/2010
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 33688972 33688814 33528696 32898626 32028638 31238772
31158878 31848949 32759013 33688972
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-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 87
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST IOWA
FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI
EASTERN NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1100 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF TEKAMAH
NEBRASKA TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF KANSAS CITY MISSOURI. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 82...WW 83...WW 84...WW
85...WW 86...
DISCUSSION...SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FORMING IN CONFLUENCE ZONE S OF NW/SE WARM FRONT ACROSS SW
IA/N CNTRL MO... WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE NOW MOVING NNE ACROSS ERN KS. ENHANCED LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AND MOISTURE AXIS NEAR WARM FRONT...IN ADDITION TO 50 KT SLY
LLJ...SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...SVR HAIL AND WIND AS STORMS
CROSS THE BOUNDARY.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 19035.
...CORFIDI
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 87
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST IOWA
FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI
EASTERN NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1100 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF TEKAMAH
NEBRASKA TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF KANSAS CITY MISSOURI. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 82...WW 83...WW 84...WW
85...WW 86...
DISCUSSION...SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FORMING IN CONFLUENCE ZONE S OF NW/SE WARM FRONT ACROSS SW
IA/N CNTRL MO... WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE NOW MOVING NNE ACROSS ERN KS. ENHANCED LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AND MOISTURE AXIS NEAR WARM FRONT...IN ADDITION TO 50 KT SLY
LLJ...SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...SVR HAIL AND WIND AS STORMS
CROSS THE BOUNDARY.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 19035.
...CORFIDI
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-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Severe Weather Threat. April 21st-25th, 2010 Moderate Risk!
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 88
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1115 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST OF
SHERMAN TEXAS TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF TEMPLE TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 82...WW 83...WW 84...WW
85...WW 86...WW 87...
DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD E/NEWD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN TX OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT NNEWD THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TX.
MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...Peters/Corfidi
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 88
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1115 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST OF
SHERMAN TEXAS TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF TEMPLE TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 82...WW 83...WW 84...WW
85...WW 86...WW 87...
DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD E/NEWD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN TX OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT NNEWD THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TX.
MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...Peters/Corfidi
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Re: Severe Weather Threat. April 21st-25th, 2010 Moderate Risk!
I think those storm SW of Austin are rotating
0 likes
-
Dave
- Retired Staff
- Posts: 13442
- Age: 74
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 3:57 pm
- Location: Milan Indiana
- Contact:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
121 AM EDT SAT APR 24 2010
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BASED OVER EASTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEND SEVERAL SPOKES OF ENERGY DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST IS LOCATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE AND
DIURNAL HEATING. EXPECT THE HEATING ELEMENT TO BE REMOVED BY THE
TIME THE ENERGY REACHES OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT ELEVATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. THUS WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS
AS WELL AS CHANCE TO LIKELY PRECIP. SOUNDINGS DO HAVE A LITTLE BIT
OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AHEAD OF THIS PRECIP...BUT THE STABLE
SURFACE LAYER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY SEVERE SURFACE
WEATHER.
AFTER TONIGHT...MODEL`S DIVERGE ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES COMING IN WITH THE NEXT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
FOR NOW PREFER THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN ITS
HANDLING OF A MESOSCALE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE ARKLATEX AND MOVING
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY DEEPENS...MAY SEE A COUPLE OF WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE FIRST WILL BE AS THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. GFS HAS THE JET OVER US WITH SPEEDS
ANYWHERE FROM 50-70 KNOTS. THUS EXPECTING THE FIRST LINE TO BRING A
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH IN THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. BEHIND THAT LINE...A STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PROFILE WILL REMAIN...WITH GFS SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING PLENTY OF
HELICITY. SHOULD ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...EXPECT THIS LINE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE TORNADOES AND MORE DAMAGING WINDS.
SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD PUNCH IN BEHIND THE SECOND LINE
BRINGING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS DOWN BY LATE EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THUS
EXPECTING 15-25 MPH WINDS OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN THAT WE`RE IN THE WARM SECTOR...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
121 AM EDT SAT APR 24 2010
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BASED OVER EASTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEND SEVERAL SPOKES OF ENERGY DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST IS LOCATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO THIS WAVE AND
DIURNAL HEATING. EXPECT THE HEATING ELEMENT TO BE REMOVED BY THE
TIME THE ENERGY REACHES OUR REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT ELEVATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. THUS WILL KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS
AS WELL AS CHANCE TO LIKELY PRECIP. SOUNDINGS DO HAVE A LITTLE BIT
OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AHEAD OF THIS PRECIP...BUT THE STABLE
SURFACE LAYER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY SEVERE SURFACE
WEATHER.
AFTER TONIGHT...MODEL`S DIVERGE ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES COMING IN WITH THE NEXT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
FOR NOW PREFER THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN ITS
HANDLING OF A MESOSCALE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE ARKLATEX AND MOVING
INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY DEEPENS...MAY SEE A COUPLE OF WAVES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE FIRST WILL BE AS THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. GFS HAS THE JET OVER US WITH SPEEDS
ANYWHERE FROM 50-70 KNOTS. THUS EXPECTING THE FIRST LINE TO BRING A
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH IN THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. BEHIND THAT LINE...A STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
PROFILE WILL REMAIN...WITH GFS SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATING PLENTY OF
HELICITY. SHOULD ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...EXPECT THIS LINE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE TORNADOES AND MORE DAMAGING WINDS.
SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD PUNCH IN BEHIND THE SECOND LINE
BRINGING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS DOWN BY LATE EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THUS
EXPECTING 15-25 MPH WINDS OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN THAT WE`RE IN THE WARM SECTOR...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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