ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[ROCK]

actually if you want to get technical this EURO run puts this low into the lower to mid Texas coast in 5 days......just sayin...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0072012!!/

[ROCK]

The TVCN model just splits the difference between the HWRF and GFDL runs.....just another pretty line similar to the LBAR or CLIMO or EXTRAP....

[HouTXmetro]

Correct me if I'm wrong but this is the first EURO run showing such a scenario? Hasn't all the previous run's pointed at LA/MS/AL?

[ROCK]

the EURO doesnt do anything with it for some time now....it didnt go anywhere really...just a weak reflection.....though I think the last run was into LA....yep you are right...around NO or a little west of that...

[Wx_Warrior]

Maybe the ending point. I don't recall the EURO blowing this invest into anything major thus far.

[KWT]

The broad set-up on all the models are simiolar but it just depends on how quickly it ramps up really. GFS based models sure are keen to lift this one up...

Track should carry on WNW for the enxt 3-4 days followed IMO by an increasingly northerly trend.

At least we do have good broad agreement...

[Macrocane]

If Bonnie develops from 97L it will be the 2nd cyclogenesis in a row that the Euro fails to predict as it failed with Chanthu a couple of days ago.

[ROCK]

If Bonnie develops from 97L it will be the 2nd cyclogenesis in a row that the Euro fails to predict as it failed with Chanthu a couple of days ago.

Chanthu? didnt you know that the EURO is only good in North America.....

[Wx_Warrior]

LOL....whatever keeps ya'll happy

[KWT]

If Bonnie develops from 97L it will be the 2nd cyclogenesis in a row that the Euro fails to predict as it failed with Chanthu a couple of days ago.

It has shown a sharp wave though to be fair to it and the GFS or any other model also didn't call for anything more then a sharp wave till this morning...

[Macrocane]

Chanthu? didnt you know that the EURO is only good in North America.....

In that case it will be bad in the only region it was good

[MWatkins]

The globals in general didn't really start getting on board until last night.

However, I wonder if there is something with the dynamical models and July in general. Remember Felix? The GFS couldn't see a cat 5! Maybe they struggle with tropical cyclogenesis in high pressure backgrounds?

Also, I wonder if the Euro struggles with MJO transitions. So little about the MJO is understood, and perhaps it didn't calculate that in somehow.

Regardless, I think cyclogenesis is happening as we speak...going to be an interesting couple of days worth of satellite watching ahead...

MW

[Wx_Warrior]

Apparently the color 850 vort maps shows on the EURO that whatever it's latching on to, it heads west.

[artist]

12 Z EURO has weak reflection near TX/LA Border at 108 Hours.

Yep. Although there isn't much to track in the Euro. I don't see anything showing up at 850mb

MW

Mike, what are your thoughts on this? Do you think south FL could be in its cross hairs? I know you really analyze everything really well.

[Ikester]

I personally feel that Florida isn't as much at risk as say places in the central and western gulf. Time and time again we've seen the GFS and it's brothers want to break down a ridge too much and allow for a poleward shift. Sometimes, the shifts can be sudden and sharp. It tried to do it with Alex just last month...breaking down the ridge because of a trough that was WAY over done. The Euro, though it had its flaws, got it with Alex and TD 2. I feel that the EURO has a good handle on the H5 pattern and would lean for a central Louisiana to deep south Texas hit. That's the way I see it NOW. Things can and will change. But you can't ignore the flaws in each model so far this season and I think the EURO has been most consistent with placement. Of course there is no storm yet, so let's wait and see what the recon fix is and where the actual center develops. As we've seen, the center already has reformed north, south, east and west. Where will it go next?

[Florida1118]

What about this makes you think Fl. Isnt at risk? It hasn't even formed yet. I Think we are all at risk, until the models get better together on what happening.

[Ikester]

What about this makes you think Fl. Isnt at risk? It hasn't even formed yet. I Think we are all at risk, until the models get better together on what happening.

Let me clarify, I think deep south Florida and the keys are at risk. I suppose I was referring to the panhandle. My apologies. I also believe I stated in my OP that things can and will change. So nothing I said was definitive.

[Florida1118]

Right. Got it now.

[MWatkins]

12 Z EURO has weak reflection near TX/LA Border at 108 Hours.

Yep. Although there isn't much to track in the Euro. I don't see anything showing up at 850mb

MW

Mike, what are your thoughts on this? Do you think south FL could be in its cross hairs? I know you really analyze everything really well.

Hi Artist,

Thanks for the nice post there...

At a high level, yes I think this is going to come close enough to be a problem starting sometime on Thursday. There's little doubt that it's heading in our general direction...anywhere from the Keys to Vero seems to be the best place to start looking right now.

All of the models are in a tight envelope...but consensus does not imply accuracy.

The GFS is probably too progressive with the pattern, leading to the ridge sliding east, which may be why the GFDL and HWRF are so far north.

Didn't see this posted anywhere, but HPC is not going with the GFS or the Para GFS for their maps:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

So that suggests that whatever is there will probably track to the south end of the model envelope...

My initial $ is on a track through the Florida Straights or extreme Southern Florida.

The big question is...how much development happens between now and then?

I think the upper environment is going to get more favorable, and the interaction with the upper low could go either way. The dry air around could stop development at times, or the weak ULL could vent it some. It seems like every hurricane has an upper low in the vicinity...

I think Dr. Masters' idea of a 3 in 10 chance of a hurricane is a good place to start until I can did into this more tonight

MW

[KWT]

Let me clarify, I think deep south Florida and the keys are at risk. I suppose I was referring to the panhandle. My apologies. I also believe I stated in my OP that things can and will change. So nothing I said was definitive.

I agree with this, the upper high does look decent on the longer range models and quite clearly a W/WNW track for the next 3-4n days is very likely. The ECM is probably too far west unless it doesn't form but equally quite a few of the GFS suite are too far east as well.