ATL: GASTON - Models

[ConvergenceZone]

KWT, You may be right about the recurve, but remember most everyone(including me) thought that
Earl would be a fish and it still has possibility of making landfall.
suzanne joyner. It's "safe" to call for a recurve since that's for typical for CV storms this time of year,
so it's fun to think of the less likely options that can still happen

[KWT]

kwt, so you think that if this manages to get into the gulf its a tex/mex threat?

To be honest its way too early to really know but I'd say more of a C/W Gulf threat then an eastern gulf threat IMO given the general pattern for a SE states ridge and simple La Nina Climatology as well.

[Vortex]

thats some ridge building ivan at 102...

[Ivanhater]

108 hours..

[KWT]

The other thing to note is the models probably won't handle Fiona very well, if Fiona were to survive it'd probably throw a curveball to a good percentage of the models.

18z probably E.Caribbean bound, weak trough digging down the E.coast at 102hrs...I'm liking the GFS thus far, looks a good deal more realistic then some of the models with Gaston.

[Ivanhater]

126 hours

[KWT]

Pretty far south there Ivanhater, if it manages to avoid that trough there totally its probably going to at the very least be a big threat to the E/C Caribbean there even if the next trough lifts it out.

[Vortex]

Notice the L at 35/60..I think that’s the low they develop that tries to put a dent in the ridge and allow for a weakness…

[blazess556]

ridge is looks much stronger than 12z.

[AtlanticWind]

ridge is looks much stronger than 12z.

Noticed that too , I think this run will end up further west.

[Ivanhater]

150 hours..in the Caribbean

[South Texas Storms]

wow much further south on this run than it was on the 12z. could be gom bound on this run.

[KWT]

Notice the L at 35/60..I think that’s the low they develop that tries to put a dent in the ridge and allow for a weakness…

You can see the upper weakness, its the lower heights over SE Canada and another trough over Central northern US with weak ridging inbetween. If Gaston ends up south of 15N by 55W then that first trough will at best lift it close to say 18-20N but its not going to get the job done on its own which likely would mean WNW/NW motion continues after that occurs.

Most models suggest the trough should be enough to do the job BUT they maybe too slow with Gaston's motion and therefore its possible that Gaston just gains some latitude and passes by the upper trough IF it is as far south as 15N at that time.

ps, 18z may get MUCH further west then the other models...possibly a trend?
Or just an outlier, who knows!

[Ivanhater]

174 hours...looks like a Caribbean Cruiser

[KWT]

Yeah Ivanhater this is what could happen if it stays south of 15N and moves quickly enough and whilst its hard to ignore the fact most models do agree on a more easterly pattern, I think the GFS may just have a better handle on its forward speed then the other models at this stage and hence why it needs to be taken seriously.

[Ivanhater]

Yeah Ivanhater this is what could happen if it stays south of 15N and moves quickly enough and whilst its hard to ignore the fact most models do agree on a more easterly pattern, I think the GFS may just have a better handle on its forward speed then the other models at this stage and hence why it needs to be taken seriously.

I think the bigger problem was the models never saw Gaston, so when the 12z models were initialized with a TD, they wanted to sit and get caught up with the ITCZ like the NHC discussed. Now they are getting a better handle on Gaston like the 18z GFS is showing by the forward speed.

[Ivanhater]

Going over Haiti

[Vortex]

That would be absoloutely devastating!

[ROCK]

Yeah Ivanhater this is what could happen if it stays south of 15N and moves quickly enough and whilst its hard to ignore the fact most models do agree on a more easterly pattern, I think the GFS may just have a better handle on its forward speed then the other models at this stage and hence why it needs to be taken seriously.

easterly? do you mean westernly?

[ConvergenceZone]

While a recurve from USA is possible, I think that a fish storm is not very likely.
The islands mostly likely will be affected.