RL3AO wrote:No if you watch the loop you can see the dry air moving SW towards the wave.
I've only just started paying some attention to 98L, and of course given its far East Atlantic location...its a bit harder to see with the same detail. One thing that struck me though and that is that I get a sense based on it's overall moisture envelope and perhaps some evidence on visible satellite, that it may be a potentially larger system than Chantal was. I only mention this in the event that upper level shear were to be a bit less of a factor than originally thought (though I clearly see that the overall upper level winds are dramatically less hostile than when Chantal was forming), than there might be a factor of increased convergence and thus a larger "pouch" in which it may be protected from the dryer air to its north and west. In addition, "if" (and I mean big if) it were to become a good deal more convective and maintain a significant CDO, than a larger system would not only be less impacted by regional conditions, but would/could tend to be a player in regards to moderating and/or pushing on the environment around it.
No prediction here, but I'm thinking very very interersting. Certainly would seem to indicate a significant Cape Verde season ahead. Now, what the upper air and steering will look like in 2-4 more weeks is anyone's guess. If this does in fact develop into a moderate T.S., than I'd say the tropics are sending a message
