Texas Summer 2022

[jasons2k]

Morning update from Jeff Lindner:

Mid and upper level ridges of high pressure continue over the southern plains with hot and dry conditions.

The ridge axis has shifted a bit toward the NNE and NE over the last few days and this has allowed a 1-2 degree drop in high temperatures from the weekend and when combined with gusty SSW winds of 10-20mph, heat index values have fallen below the 108 advisory threshold. With that said…it is still hot and heat safety precautions should be taken for anyone with extended outdoor exposure.

Ridge will build slightly more to the north later this week and this will allow a pool of deeper moisture to move into the Texas coast from the east along with a disturbance that will round the edge of the ridge. The hope is that the increasing moisture and lift from the disturbance and seabreeze will be enough to overcome the subsidence from the ridge and produce a few showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. Friday looks to be the best day for some activity along the seabreeze, but am hesitant to go more than about 20-30% for coverage. Before the deeper moisture arrives on Friday, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will continued to be pointed into the region with hazy/dusty skies into Thursday.

Mid and upper level ridge builds back into the region over the weekend and this will once again end any slight rain chances and push temperatures back toward or over 100 by Sunday into early next week. Tropical moisture associated with an area of disturbed weather over the western Caribbean Sea and central America will remain south of Texas given strong ridging in place.

Tropics:
Trough of low pressure remains in place north of Panama this morning with scattered areas of convection. This feature has not become any better organized in the last 48 hours and global model support for development has decreased mainly due to interaction with the land areas of central America. A few models still show development and a track away from central America with a longer time over water and general track toward Belize and maybe the southern Bay of Campeche, but these models are now outliers compared to the consensus. NHC chances for development remain around 40% and this is only if a surface low forms away from the land areas of central America. With high pressure over the US Gulf coast, anything that forms will be guided to the west, well south of the Gulf coast.

[bubba hotep]

It seems like the GFS is trying to get a pattern break with storms near the end of the month, it feels so close, but yet it's so far away . . .

[gpsnowman]

It seems like the GFS is trying to get a pattern break with storms near the end of the month, it feels so close, but yet it's so far away . . .

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022061406/gfs_T850a_namer_51.png

Please Lord make this happen.

[Iceresistance]

It seems like the GFS is trying to get a pattern break with storms near the end of the month, it feels so close, but yet it's so far away . . .

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022061406/gfs_T850a_namer_51.png

Please Lord make this happen.

Yes, this would be an answered prayer

[weatherdude1108]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022061406/gfs_T850a_namer_51.png

Please Lord make this happen.

Yes, this would be an answered prayer

Yeah, I noticed last week the GFS was showing a potential pattern break and fantasicane around the 21st. Then that evaporated. Now it's showing some tropical moisture trying to push in at the end of the month. Will that get pushed back too?

Kind of like when the models show snow a few weeks out the entire Winter, and nothing happens. Ugh.smh

[captainbarbossa19]

I think the global models are way overemphasizing the extremes of this heat wave. Euro next week shows 112 degrees in Georgia. 112 really? That would be a tie of the hottest temperature ever recorded for the state. Models are exacerbating conditions because of the ongoing ridging.

Edit: found a 113 in Georgia. So basically, the Euro expects this heat wave to be worse than the all-time record. I highly doubt that. It will be hot, but not that hot.

[Brent]

Lower humidity definitely helping somewhat here today vs the last two days but I'm all in on any kind of storm or even clouds

[captainbarbossa19]

At least I am not having to spend much money on gas for mowing this summer.

[Ntxw]

Looks like nothing interesting for awhile. Doesn't appear like a tropical system is going to bring rain this June, at least outside of the GFSfantasycane of the past several weeks. Perhaps hopeful a weak one can help in July.

Some current averages around the state.

Houston 86F average for the month. Warmest June is 86.2F, likely to finish hottest June on record.
DFW 83.9F average for the month. Warmest is 87.5F in 1953 so far looks like top 5 finish is likely.
Austin 85.5F average for the month. Warmest 87.4F and is on pace to match or break it.
San Antonio 88.3F for the month. Warmest is 87.4F and on pace to be well above it.

[Haris]

Small victories in the sense Chicago and Detroit are hotter than Austin by 2 degrees and Atlanta hit their hottest temp since 2019. Lol

[Ntxw]

Small victories in the sense Chicago and Detroit are hotter than Austin by 2 degrees and Atlanta hit their hottest temp since 2019. Lol

Upvote! Nothing beats the East Coast and Southeast warmer than us!

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Small victories in the sense Chicago and Detroit are hotter than Austin by 2 degrees and Atlanta hit their hottest temp since 2019. Lol

HEY! We can talk about relief without having to drag down others who are also suffering

Anyway, I can't wait for +ENSO. I hate being trapped inside but it's too hot to do anything outside without extended breaks for water and AC. Even the MCS missed us here in the metro ATL area, so it's just hot and humid without much reprieve. Had a watch which busted here as per usual, it seems.

Here's hoping we actually get some relief for all of us soon, though given the current long-range outlooks... I'm not optimistic. Maybe we get a spin-up thanks to the anomalously warm waters that helps weaken the death ridge setting up over us. This sucks.

I think the global models are way overemphasizing the extremes of this heat wave. Euro next week shows 112 degrees in Georgia. 112 really? That would be a tie of the hottest temperature ever recorded for the state. Models are exacerbating conditions because of the ongoing ridging.

Edit: found a 113 in Georgia. So basically, the Euro expects this heat wave to be worse than the all-time record. I highly doubt that. It will be hot, but not that hot.

If this verifies, I will find Mother Nature and fistfight her.

[Brent]

Yeah I'm officially over La Nina.

[captainbarbossa19]

Small victories in the sense Chicago and Detroit are hotter than Austin by 2 degrees and Atlanta hit their hottest temp since 2019. Lol

HEY! We can talk about relief without having to drag down others who are also suffering

Anyway, I can't wait for +ENSO. I hate being trapped inside but it's too hot to do anything outside without extended breaks for water and AC. Even the MCS missed us here in the metro ATL area, so it's just hot and humid without much reprieve. Had a watch which busted here as per usual, it seems.

Here's hoping we actually get some relief for all of us soon, though given the current long-range outlooks... I'm not optimistic. Maybe we get a spin-up thanks to the anomalously warm waters that helps weaken the death ridge setting up over us. This sucks.

I think the global models are way overemphasizing the extremes of this heat wave. Euro next week shows 112 degrees in Georgia. 112 really? That would be a tie of the hottest temperature ever recorded for the state. Models are exacerbating conditions because of the ongoing ridging.

Edit: found a 113 in Georgia. So basically, the Euro expects this heat wave to be worse than the all-time record. I highly doubt that. It will be hot, but not that hot.

If this verifies, I will find Mother Nature and fistfight her.

The problem now is that this is setting up to be a real problem year for agriculture. Not only are gas and diesel prices at all-time highs, a massive heat-wave and drought is developing over the bread basket of the nation. This is on top of the current food and supply shortages.

[weatherdude1108]

There APPEARS to be some kind of relief near June 28th. Maybe a frontal zone(?). Probably another teaser. Anyway, anything looks better than 105-110.

Right now, it's cloudy and 89 degrees at 3:30pm here. Usually been around 101 at this time the past several days.

[Ntxw]

Most frustrating part is, the gfs long range canes have been developing in the EPAC instead of Atlantic side. Blas and 93E. If not for the ridge dome at mid and upper levels we may have gotten higher moisture to stream up, but in a bad year does very little.

[bubba hotep]

Most frustrating part is, the gfs long range canes have been developing in the EPAC instead of Atlantic side. Blas and 93E. If not for the ridge dome at mid and upper levels we may have gotten higher moisture to stream up, but in a bad year does very little.

This is one of the most active early season Nina starts for the EPAC. Bad luck for Texas.

[bubba hotep]

The models continue to be way too hot for DFW in the medium and long range. A few days ago models had DFW pushing 105F this weekend but have trended back towards seasonal warm temps. FWD going with a warm but not crazy 97F.

[captainbarbossa19]

Most frustrating part is, the gfs long range canes have been developing in the EPAC instead of Atlantic side. Blas and 93E. If not for the ridge dome at mid and upper levels we may have gotten higher moisture to stream up, but in a bad year does very little.

This is one of the most active early season Nina starts for the EPAC. Bad luck for Texas.

Unfortunately for us, it is not unusual for Nina seasons to have active EPAC activity early. However, it will probably shut off almost completely by August. Subsidence will take over while the Atlantic will likely explode in activity.

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 160852
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
352 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022

.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...
Just insignificant tweaks the the ongoing fcst this morning.
Mid-upper ridging is still the dominant feature controlling area
wx. GOES Total PW product shows gradient of higher moisture
situated across the eastern 1/3-1/2 of LA early this morning.
Look for it to continue inching our way under the ridge...probably
approaching the TX border later today and into southeast TX
Friday. With a weaker pressure gradient in place, the seabreeze
should be more prominent today and again on Friday. Can`t rule
out a few isolated shra/tstms along the feature today. Better
chances/coverage anticipated Friday when PW`s are around 2". H85 &
H7 temps, though not ideal, should be lower than they have been
in several days and somewhat less hostile for some iso/sct
development similar to what some of the HREF members indicate. 47

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...
Mid to upper level ridging and omega blocking spanning across the
CONUS will set us up for another hot weekend. Expect temperatures in
the mid to upper 90s with heat indicies exceeding 105F. Heat
advisories may be needed on Sunday and Monday as the heat indices
approach 108F. Shortwaves passing east to west may interact with
the sea breeze to produce a few light showers during the day on
Saturday. A stalled boundary spanning across Louisiana and east
Texas may bring additional showers to areas west of I-45 late
Saturday night into Sunday. PWATS peak at around 1.8" on Sunday,
so there will be ample moisture to tap into should anything
develop. Though the development of these weekend showers will
still be greatly suppressed by the aforementioned ridge.

Our last call for rain will be on Tuesday as a few coastal showers
develop in response to some unsettled weather over the
southwestern Gulf. The upper level ridge should flatten toward
midweek, but with 850mb temperatures sitting around 22-24C and
500mb heights between 591-594dm, its fair to say that there is no
end in sight for these hot and muggy conditions. 03

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore flow will continue today followed by lighter winds and
lower seas Friday and through the weekend. 03

&&

.AVIATION...
A mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings this early morning then VFR for the remainder
of the day. Rise-repeat late tonight & Friday morning. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 76 99 76 100 / 0 0 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 99 79 98 77 99 / 20 10 30 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 92 83 92 83 93 / 10 10 30 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$