Texas Fall 2024

[nlosrgr8]

Um I’ve seen a couple of GFS runs with a something either heading to NOLA or TX/LA border late October. That seems a bit crazy….

[Ntxw]

I do agree the ensembles are starting to show Pacific ridging moving east of the international dateline. This is generally better for building cold over Canada than at the IDL below the Aleutians. If there is a cold air source even in a so-so 500mb would be better than heat and ridging at all latitudes.

[Stratton23]

Ntwx seems like we get some sort of semblance of blocking over NW Canada/ Alaska on ensembles, PNA goes - so it should be a cool west/ central vs warm east alignment i believe, also the aleutian low is trending weaker which has been flooding the US with pacific air, source region also is trending below normal, 2nd half of october is not looking nearly as warm as first thought

[Ntxw]

Ntwx seems like we get some sort of semblance of blocking over NW Canada/ Alaska on ensembles, PNA goes - so it should be a cool west/ central vs warm east alignment i believe, also the aleutian low is trending weaker which has been flooding the US with pacific air, source region also is trending below normal, 2nd half of october is not looking nearly as warm as first thought

I don't see anything all that cold yet. But it's nice to see the stagnant warmth over North America get flushed. Something more normal for Fall. You have to realize we have been experiencing anomalous global and continental warmth that hasn't budged.

[Stratton23]

Ntwx oh no i agree with that, its been very anomalous for sure, i was just saying that blocking would help send down whatever cooler air is in our source region , its definitely going to take a while for that area to get really cold especially after the whole country was invaded with pacific air, would be nice to have a typical rather over another really hot one, hopefully we can get a decent front every 7 days or so

[Stratton23]

Noaas 6-1 and 8/14 day outlooks have texas in the normal- slightly above normal precipitation outlooks, thats encouraging but also surprising

[bubba hotep]

Can DFW get to 100F on Sunday

Loving this fall weather

[Tejas89]

Brutal and cruel are the only way to describe this weekend’s weather.

That little game at the Cotton Bowl Saturday afternoon is gonna be tough on the players and fans. Teasing a record hi.

[Brent]

Can DFW get to 100F on Sunday

Loving this fall weather

I keep telling people here if we don't flip soon we're going straight to winter

I know we probably are next week but still... It's been ugly. Heck next week there could be 30s in the state. My point might be proven

[Stratton23]

Very impressive alaskan blocking setting up on the CMC and Euro

[Stratton23]

Larry Cosgrove says we could have a big shot of colder air coming down the road during the last week of october , jet could buckle, ensembles are showing a reconfiguration of the JET, alaskan blocking, kind of what the Euro AIFS has been consistently showing

[DallasAg]

Larry Cosgrove says we could have a big shot of colder air coming down the road during the last week of october , jet could buckle, ensembles are showing a reconfiguration of the JET, alaskan blocking, kind of what the Euro AIFS has been consistently showing

Sounds almost like Oct 2020. OU-Texas weekend (Oct 10-11) was a scorcher in N Texas, and then within 2 weeks we were setting record low max temps at DFW with a sizeable ice storm in far western N Texas and most of western OK.

No idea if the setup is anything similar this time around, but it seems like the last few years we get summer's last stand around the time of the big game at the Cotton Bowl and then get on with the real fall show.

[Stratton23]

DallasAg models show a 582 MB Ridge setting up over alaska in the 10-12 day period, thats pretty impressive, Euro AIFS has been showing this happening for a while now and models are just starting to catch on to it, could have a much chillier period potentially the last week of october, EPO goes pretty negative as well for an extended period

[snownado]

It's funny how the models have really backed off on the cool down next week.

90s look to be done, but even the cooler guidance still indicate low 80s for DFW...

[snownado]

Can DFW get to 100F on Sunday

Loving this fall weather

Would be crazy considering it didn't happen once in September...

[Stratton23]

Thats some rather chilly air ( for October standards) building in our source region on the CMC and Euro, looks like it starts to get dislodged at the end of the CMC run into the central US, makes sense with the EPO going Negative

[Brent]

If it doesn't rain soon I'm gonna start wondering if that's a conspiracy too I mean apparently the hurricanes are

[Stratton23]

Models are forecasting a cut off low to drop down into texas next week, hopefully that can provide much needed rainfall

[Iceresistance]

[Youtube]https://youtu.be/uvrniP0PTdY[/Youtube]
https://youtu.be/uvrniP0PTdY

Surprise Thunderstorm a couple of nights ago

(Not sure why YT embed isn't working)

[Stratton23]

Extremely impressive blocking on the 00z GFS, alaskan ridge extending up into the arctic circle