NATL: GABRIELLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Note that there's a satellite data outage now: Most sources that I know only have GOES imagery as of 16:30z (12:30 pm EDT, almost 2 hours ago), not later.

Outage is now over and images are updating.

[zzzh]

AL, 07, 2025092218, , BEST, 0, 313N, 621W, 115, 951, HU,

[WaveBreaking]

[CrazyC83]

A bit surprised they went that high since the data was borderline, although a T6.0 Dvorak rating can tilt things towards the higher end. 124 kt FL = 112 kt at the surface (and 129 kt at 750 mb = about 111 kt), so it's right in the middle.

2025 is starting to remind me of either a more active 2014 or 2007. Feast or famine.

[CrazyC83]

There is a commonly held belief in Bermuda that the waters here could not support a category 5, and perhaps not even a category 4. Seeing this swirl just offshore has been eye opening.

Fiona remained a Cat 4 to very close to Canada...so it can happen.

[Ubuntwo]

A bit surprised they went that high since the data was borderline, although a T6.0 Dvorak rating can tilt things towards the higher end. 124 kt FL = 112 kt at the surface (and 129 kt at 750 mb = about 111 kt), so it's right in the middle.

2025 is starting to remind me of either a more active 2014 or 2007. Feast or famine.

There was also 129kt at 700mb (17z/NOAA3), which directly supports 115kt.

[CrazyC83]

As the ADT has improved more (to T6.1 - T6.5 Raw), I'd go up to 120 kt at the advisory.

[Travorum]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1970217891992854865

[StormWeather]

As the ADT has improved more (to T6.1 - T6.5 Raw), I'd go up to 120 kt at the advisory.

I’m torn between thinking it’s 115 kts right now, and maybe it being 120 kts.

I think the NHC will go 115 kts, 950 mb for the upcoming update.

[StormWeather]

As the ADT has improved more (to T6.1 - T6.5 Raw), I'd go up to 120 kt at the advisory.

I’m torn between thinking it’s 115 kts right now, and maybe it being 120 kts.

I think the NHC will go 115 kts, 950 mb for the upcoming update.

Scratch the 115 kts, just looked at the realtime Dvorak and 120 kts definitely sounds reasonable now to me.

[Teban54]

Outperforming the most aggressive models, HWRF and HAFS. (As of their 6z runs, they only called for at most a Cat 3 by today, and the peak wasn't supposed to be reached until tomorrow or Wednesday.)

[Beef Stew]

Gabrielle is shaping up to be one of those rare, beautiful mid-latitude monsters. And to think this storm was struggling immensely just a few days ago too.

[StormWeather]

Gabrielle is shaping up to be one of those rare, beautiful mid-latitude monsters. And to think this storm was struggling immensely just a few days ago too.

Goes to show that at the flip of a switch things can change.

[Travorum]

120kts at the advisory

Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 PM AST Mon Sep 22 2025

...GABRIELLE NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 61.8W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 2005 MI...3230 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES

---

INIT 22/2100Z 31.7N 61.8W 120 KT 140 MPH

[Teban54]

120kts at the advisory

Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 PM AST Mon Sep 22 2025

...GABRIELLE NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 61.8W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 2005 MI...3230 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES

---

INIT 22/2100Z 31.7N 61.8W 120 KT 140 MPH

Forecast to stay at 120 kt for 12 hours (I wouldn't rule out brief intensification in-between), and then slowly weaken. That's some sweet ACE that the season can definitely use more of.

[StormWeather]

I wouldn’t be surprised to see this make a run for 130 kts or higher.

What’s the highest latitude that a storm has reached Category 5 in this basin?

[cycloneye]

A little bit more stronger at final pass from NOAA2.

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 132kt at 20:42z

Minimum Extrap. Pressure: 945.2mb at 20:47z

[Category5Kaiju]

I wouldn’t be surprised to see this make a run for 130 kts or higher.

What’s the highest latitude that a storm has reached Category 5 in this basin?

In the closed Atlantic, I think it's either Camille or Michael. In the open Atlantic, the 1944 New England Hurricane. Mind you, well south of Bermuda too.

[Teban54]

I wouldn’t be surprised to see this make a run for 130 kts or higher.

What’s the highest latitude that a storm has reached Category 5 in this basin?

5 northernmost Cat 5s by latitude:

• Camille 1969: 150 kt at 30.3 N (Gulf coast, landfall)
• Michael 2018: 140 kt at 30.0 N (Gulf coast, landfall)
• 1944 Great Atlantic Hurricane: 140 kt at 29.4 N (Western Atlantic, east of FL)
• Katrina 2005: 140 kt at 27.2 N (Gulf)
• Dorian 2019: 155 kt at 26.6 N (Western Atlantic, Grand Bahama landfall)

Gabrielle is already approaching 32N and much further east of any of these. On the other hand, it also shows how incredibly difficult a Cat 5 at this location would be.

If we relax the threshold to 130 kt (Super Typhoon strength), the northernmost ones are:

• Helene 1958: 130 kt at 32.7 N (Western Atlantic, offshore SC)
• 1944 Great Atlantic Hurricane: 130 kt at 31.0 N (Western Atlantic, east of FL/GA border)
• Camille 1969: 150 kt at 30.3 N (Gulf coast, landfall)
• Michael 2018: 135 kt at 30.2 N (Gulf coast, just past landfall)
• Laura 2020: 130 kt at 29.3 N (Gulf coast, landfall)

So even those are much closer to CONUS than Gabrielle is now.

Only 3 storms were stronger than Gabrielle within 500 miles of its current location (31.7N 61.8W), all peaking at 130 kt within this circle:

• Sam 2021: 130 kt at 29.2N 61.9W (173 mi S of Gabrielle)
• Florence 2018: 130 kt at 27.2N 66.4W (416 mi SW of Gabrielle)
• Easy 1951: 130 kt at 27.1N 67.6W (472 mi WSW of Gabrielle)

Many storms reached the same intensity as Gabrielle (120 kt) within this distance. The northernmost of them is #7 1878 (33.3N), followed by Ophelia 2011 (32.8N, quite close to Gabrielle).

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Well, well! The ugliest TS I've ever seen in the MDR has become a beautiful major hurricane. WTG Gabrielle!