NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Weatherboy1]

Melissa is going to be weak and disorganized for a couple days, Melissa is still going to be a record breaking storm.

And that is why the models go nuts. If Melissa strengthened to, say category 1 or 2, now in spite of the shear, it would be Hispaniola bound. But instead it's so weak that the first front isn't a factor at all. Hence the current westward movement.

There's little to suggest strengthening in the short term. It's the middle and long term where the questions lie...

Agreed. And that's why while I seriously DOUBT Melissa will have any impact in South Florida, I'm not 100% ruling it out. Models have mostly swung to the "move west for a while before turning NW/N/NE" camp. They almost all say that turn will happen early enough to be a Jamaica/Cuba/Bahamas/Haiti issue. But could that change as downstream conditions do, especially if the westward movement persists for some time? Maybe.

[Blown Away]

Melissa's LLC popping out to the west of the convection. My estimate @14.3N/74.3W, moving West @5mph...

[zal0phus]

To be fair though, there is a major distinction between those with a primarily analytical yet sterile appreciation of meteorological data, graphics, records, and numbers.... and those who quite honestly were turned-on to "severe weather" as a result of seeing or experiencing the ferocious awe of Mother Nature. One cannot be awed by the extreme impact of a hurricane unless one has a frame of reference depicting storm surge and it's effects or the manner in which a major hurricane winds humble ourselves and mankind's mighty construction or technology. Tornado's are potentially a bit different in that one can appreciate a wide angle view of the sky along with the menacing vortex dropping from the sky, potentially over open space with no construction or people around.

Let's be fair though. Most people (myself included) ARE mesmerized when incredible chaser or witness video depicting the manner in which severe weather impacts our world comes forward. I also think that most if not all of us equally cringe at the same time, when witnessing the horribly sad and depressing impact to others where visible. I have zero interest in witnessing a drowning, severe injury occur, or a person whisked away by severe wind.

In the end, it is largely our viewing the world around us which shapes our understanding, appreciation, interest, AND risk mitigation as we move forward.

Hey Chaser,
For specific examples of what I’m referring to, please go to the link below, if interested, and reply to that there if you’d like to (if you don’t mind). Keep in mind that I’ve followed these 5 folks’ posts for awhile in addition to other posters with similar desires. So, I’m quite familiar with their repeatedly honestly stated desires regarding hurricanes:

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 0#p3142975

Oh no please don’t start the dreaded r/tropicalweather “how much hurricane enthusiasm is too much???” fight again.

(Also, never post storm personifications on Reddit)

The tornado subreddit had this exact same problem earlier this year on a huge scale. It seems endemic to any kind of severe weather community and it's very tiresome. On one hand you have those blatantly begging for extreme disasters, and on the other you have those who think any interest at all in severe weather is some horrible sin. That begs the question of why they're there though (doesn't apply to hurricanes as there's value in predicting them--but not really for tornadoes).

[aspen]

5pm cone now calls for a Cat 4 at the end of the forecast period.

[cycloneye]

The sad part of all of what will transpire in the next few days is well ilustrated by Papín in the 5 PM discussion.

Unfortunately, it is becoming increasingly likely that Melissa will become a large and
dangerous hurricane by the end of the forecast period.

[Teban54]

The sad part of all of what will transpire in the next few days is well ilustrated by Papín in the 5 PM discussion.

Unfortunately, it is becoming increasingly likely that Melissa will become a large and
dangerous hurricane by the end of the forecast period.

The sentence just before:

This forecast is in the best agreement with the HCCA intensity aid, but it is worth noting it's under the latest HAFS-A/B and HMON forecasts.

[Teban54]

Also worth noting that according to NHC/Papin, Melissa already had a center reformation last night -- which still didn't result in any further intensification today that models like GFS were calling for. Even if yet another relocation happens, my guess is that it won't improve Melissa's structure until the shear finally lets up.

The current vortex misalignment of Melissa is a significant impediment to short-term intensification, and the vertical wind shear is expected to maintain this tilted structure over the next 24-36 hours, although I can't preclude any center reformations down-shear, like what occurred last night. After this period, the ECWMF-SHIPS guidance now indicates the ongoing westerly shear will decrease to 10-15 knots, and the storm remains over very warm sea-surface temperatures and high oceanic heat content.

[cycloneye]

The historic part if it happens.

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1981105873218089347

[Teban54]

The historic part if it happens.

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1981105873218089347

Seasonal totals for each of these seasons:

• 1932: 15 / 6 / 4
• 1999: 12 / 8 / 5
• 2010: 19 /12 / 5
• 2025: 13 / 5 / 4, if Melissa becomes MH

Even among these, 2025 would still have the most bizarre distribution by far. The 4th Cat 4 in both 1999 and 2010 were in mid-September, allowing time for 3 and 7 more hurricanes to form in the next 1.5 months, respectively (each season having one more MH). 2025 is much less likely to get a "normal" TS/H/MH ratio this way with its remaining time.

1932, despite pre-satellite issues, would be the closest comparison... Which is even more ominous, as its 4th MH was the infamous Cuba 1932, which peaked at 150 kt, had a ship-measured pressure of 915 mb, and also had the longest duration as a Cat 5 (3 days 6 hours) -- in November.

[Hurricane Mike]

6pm Video Update
https://youtu.be/gjIeLB72dvg

[blp]

Story of the last 24 hours. Look at how much the shear has increased over the system. This is what the GFS did not see coming.

24hours ago.


Now:

[Hurricane Mike]

Story of the last 24 hours. Look at how much the shear has increased over the system. This is what the GFS did not see coming.

24hours ago.
https://i.ibb.co/KjSByY5b/wg8shr-Z-8.gif

Now:
https://i.ibb.co/0yTjhyvZ/wg8shrZ.gif

Yeah, and it could wind up hurting us in the long run. Same thing happened with Hurricane Michael back in 2018. The shear kept it in check long enough so that when it finally did explode, it was hitting land.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Hey Chaser,
For specific examples of what I’m referring to, please go to the link below, if interested, and reply to that there if you’d like to (if you don’t mind). Keep in mind that I’ve followed these 5 folks’ posts for awhile in addition to other posters with similar desires. So, I’m quite familiar with their repeatedly honestly stated desires regarding hurricanes:

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 0#p3142975

Oh no please don’t start the dreaded r/tropicalweather “how much hurricane enthusiasm is too much???” fight again.

(Also, never post storm personifications on Reddit)

The tornado subreddit had this exact same problem earlier this year on a huge scale. It seems endemic to any kind of severe weather community and it's very tiresome. On one hand you have those blatantly begging for extreme disasters, and on the other you have those who think any interest at all in severe weather is some horrible sin. That begs the question of why they're there though (doesn't apply to hurricanes as there's value in predicting them--but not really for tornadoes).

this is why *real* weather nerds check r/EF5

(okay I'm done)

[ScottNAtlanta]

This is the most insane intensity spread I have ever seen

[al78]

Just looking and reading about Melissa, this looks to be a case where the storm is over waters with a high enough heat content to theoretically support a cat 5 hurricane (i.e. MPI is high) and it is all about the atmosphere. I'm guessing that if atmospheric conditions become favourable, it will be like lifting a lid and this thing will explosively intensify. I am thinking the forecasters at the NHC are thinking along similar lines. The big question is, where does it go if it does rapidly intensify and is anywhere likely to get absolutely hammered? It is wait and see at the moment.

[Nimbus]

18z GFS gets the storm north of Hispaniola by 114 hours a little quicker than the 12Z run.
18Z Euro will probably show the trough miss again with devastation for Jamaica.

18z GFS could be moving it out earlier to avoid the ridge capture scenario?

Typical October front digging deep into the Caribbean.

[hipshot]

18z GFS gets the storm north of Hispaniola by 114 hours a little quicker than the 12Z run.
18Z Euro will probably show the trough miss again with devastation for Jamaica.

18z GFS could be moving it out earlier to avoid the ridge capture scenario?

Wouldn't any ridge to the north force the storm more west until the ridge gets further east and Mellisa would then get drawn north.
But how far west does Mellisa get before that happens.

[chaser1]

Technically, there already is a weak ridge centered over the W. Bahamas right now. The New England trough is not quite deep enough to full degrade that weak ridging. Nor is Melissa deep enough of a low to further contribute to eroding that ridge. That pretty much has resulted in Melissa sitting nearly stationary in a COL more or less. Melissa begins to deepen some and one of those variables begin to slowly change resulting in a slightly greater tug to the north. That in turn would probably (slightly) further the degradation of the weak ridge cause a somewhat greater gap to escape poleward.

[blp]

Recon confirms the swirl we saw west of the convection is still the center.

[TallyTracker]

Recon confirms the swirl we saw west of the convection is still the center.

https://i.ibb.co/svxGrgWV/recon-AF308-0513-A-MELISSA.png

That is a poorly defined center as well. With those flight-level winds, I’d say it’s 40-45 mph currently. I think 50 mph is generous.