Extratropical Irene Advisories

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005
1500Z FRI AUG 12 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 66.8W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 50SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 66.8W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 66.4W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 29.2N 68.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 30.0N 69.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.0N 70.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 35.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 36.5N 71.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 66.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DEFINITELY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
YESTERDAY. THERE IS A LOW-LEVEL CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP
CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. MICROWAVE DATA
SHOW A CONVECTIVE RING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF IRENE.
T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE REACHED 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER...A
MORE ACCURATE MEASUREMENT OF THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF IRENE
WILL BE KNOWN WHEN AN AIR FORCE PLANE REACHES THE CYCLONE LATER
TODAY. THIS IS THE FIRST FLIGHT INTO IRENE. THE SHEAR AHEAD OF
IRENE IS FORECAST TO BE LOW..AND THAT SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE OVER A POCKET OF
RELATIVELY COOL WATERS LEFT BY FRANKLIN AND HARVEY. SO
INTENSIFICATION BEYOND CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS.

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS
AROUND A STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE MOVES
EASTWARD...IRENE SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
NORTH INTO AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN
A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 3 DAYS AND IN
FACT...IRENE COULD BEGIN MEANDERING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MANY
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH SHOW BASICALLY VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW
NEAR THE 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST POSITION OF IRENE. EVENTUALLY...A
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED WHICH SHOULD TURN
THE CYCLONE AWAY FROM THE US COAST. THAT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE
FUTURE TO BE CERTAIN.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 28.3N 66.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 29.2N 68.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 30.0N 69.3W 75 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 31.0N 70.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 14/1200Z 32.0N 71.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 15/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 16/1200Z 35.0N 72.0W 75 KT
120HR VT 17/1200Z 36.5N 71.5W 75 KT

[Frank2]

If the track is correct, then this will be the third system (along with Franklin and Harvey) to meander in the western Atlantic - apparently this is a long-term pattern, and is very reminisent to 1981, when Hurricane Emily meandered and seemed to carve out a trough in the subtropical ridge that lasted for the remainder of the 1981 season.

Frank

[Hurricaneman]

I'm in the cone of doom

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... MG!!!!!!!!! A Possible eye tring to form?????????????????

[superfly]

There is already an eye per the recon report.

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Irene Forecast/Advisory Number 33


Statement as of 21:00Z on August 12, 2005



tropical storm center located near 28.7n 67.5w at 12/2100z
position accurate within 35 nm

present movement toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 9 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 997 mb
Max sustained winds 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt.
50 kt....... 30ne 30se 30sw 20nw.
34 kt....... 75ne 75se 75sw 50nw.
12 ft seas..150ne 120se 75sw 90nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 28.7n 67.5w at 12/2100z
at 12/1800z center was located near 28.4n 67.1w

forecast valid 13/0600z 29.4n 68.8w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 40nw.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 75sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 13/1800z 30.8n 70.0w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 40nw.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 75sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 14/0600z 32.5n 70.5w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
64 kt... 25ne 25se 0sw 0nw.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 40nw.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 75sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 14/1800z 34.0n 70.5w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 40nw.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 75sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 15/1800z 36.0n 70.4w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 40nw.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 75sw 75nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 16/1800z 37.1n 70.0w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.

Outlook valid 17/1800z 39.0n 64.0w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 28.7n 67.5w

next advisory at 13/0300z

forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005
2100Z FRI AUG 12 2005

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 67.5W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 67.5W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 67.1W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 29.4N 68.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 30.8N 70.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.0N 70.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 36.0N 70.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 37.1N 70.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 39.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 67.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Irene Discussion Number 33


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 12, 2005



an Air Force plane investigating Irene confirmed earlier satellite
intensity estimates at 1800 UTC. The recon measured 64 knots at
flight level and a minimum pressure of 997 mb. It also reported a
well-defined circulation with good radar presentation. Both shear
and SST are favorable for strengthening but since no guidance
brings Irene above a category one hurricane...only slight
intensification is indicated.

Irene has decreased its forward speed and is moving toward the
northwest or 310 degrees at 9 knots. The cyclone has been steered
by the flow around a strong mid-level subtropical ridge. As the
ridge moves eastward...Irene should turn more toward the
north-northwest and north around the ridge into an area of light
steering currents. This would result in a significant decrease in
forward speed during the next 2 to 4 days. In fact...Irene could
begin to meander for a while. Thereafter...the westerlies are
expected to become established and this flow should take Irene
northeastward away from the U.S. Coast.

The official track forecast has been gradually shifting eastward in
agreement with guidance. This lessens the potential threat to the
United States East Coast. A high altitude NOAA jet is currently
sampling the environment. The data will go into tonight's model
runs.

Note: just after the coordination call the plane reported a peak
wind of 75 knots at 850 mb. The initial intensity has been adjusted
to 60 knots.

Forecaster Avila


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 12/2100z 28.7n 67.5w 60 kt
12hr VT 13/0600z 29.4n 68.8w 65 kt
24hr VT 13/1800z 30.8n 70.0w 75 kt
36hr VT 14/0600z 32.5n 70.5w 75 kt
48hr VT 14/1800z 34.0n 70.5w 75 kt
72hr VT 15/1800z 36.0n 70.4w 75 kt
96hr VT 16/1800z 37.1n 70.0w 75 kt
120hr VT 17/1800z 39.0n 64.0w 75 kt

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI AUG 12 2005

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS IRENE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES
...475 KM...SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 650 MILES...1045 KM
...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE HAS THE CHANCE TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT
OR SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...28.7 N... 67.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

[wxwatcher91]

I will seriously quit watching hurricanes if this becomes the 4th tropical storm this season to peak at 70mph!

[wxwatcher91]

when will the intermediate advisories begin?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it doe's not threaten land then never.

[Andrew92]

when will the intermediate advisories begin?

IF any watches or warnings are issued.

[WindRunner]

so probably never.

[cycloneye]

WTNT44 KNHC 130244
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

SINCE THE LAST RECON REPORT AND 00Z SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
...IRENE'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DEGRADED SOMEWHAT. A 12/2245Z SSMI
OVERPASS INDICATED A SHARP DRY SLOT HAD PUSHED INTO THE CIRCULATION
FROM THE NORTH...ALL THE WHILE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED NEAR THE
CENTER AND A CDO FEATURE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY.
THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 60 KT. HOWEVER...
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 991 MB BASED ON A
12/2300Z PRESSURE OF 995.9 MB REPORTED BY BUOY 41927 LOCATED ABOUT
30 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH WAS LOWER THAN THE LAST
RECON REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB AT 12/2023Z.

THE BEST MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 310/09...WHICH IS A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE RECON FIX MOTION. A NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT AND AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT HAVE BEEN CONDUCTING SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE
MISSIONS AROUND IRENE THIS EVENING. DROPSONDE DATA FROM THOSE
AIRCRAFT INDICATE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND MORE WESTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAN ANY OF THE MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR
13/00Z...WITH THE UKMET HAVING THE CLOSEST VERIFICATION. THE RIDGE
...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT NARROW...EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA WESTWARD TO
NORTH CAROLINA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED EASTWARD OFF THE U.S.
EAST COAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY IS
MOVING EASTWARD TO TAKE THE PLACE OF THAT TROUGH. IN THE SHORT TERM
...THIS SHOULD BUILD OR AT LEAST MAINTAIN THE EXISTING RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF IRENE...WHICH MAY CAUSE A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD MOTION THAN
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...ALL THE MODELS
AGREE THAT IRENE WILL ERODE THE RIDGE AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE RIDGE BETWEEN 70-72W LONGITUDE...AND THEN TURN
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN MORE RIDGE SHOWING
UP IN THE SYNOPTIC DROPSONDE DATA...THERE MAY BE A WESTWARD SHIFT
IN THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE. FOR THIS ADVISORY...THOUGH...THE
OFFICIAL TRACK WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.

BRIEF PERIODS OF INTENSIFICATION WILL PROBABLY OCCUR THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...DESPITE WARM SSTS OF AT LEAST 28C
AND FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR CONDITIONS. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO
THE VERY DRY AIR THAT IRENE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AND CONSTANTLY
HAVING TO MIX OUT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL...BUT MUCH HIGHER THAN THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH
WEAKENS IRENE TO LESS THAN 30 KT IN 48H.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 29.2N 68.3W 60 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 29.9N 69.3W 65 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 31.4N 70.3W 70 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 33.0N 70.6W 75 KT
48HR VT 15/0000Z 34.6N 70.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 16/0000Z 36.7N 70.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 17/0000Z 38.0N 67.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 18/0000Z 39.0N 61.5W 75 KT

[shaggy]

wonder if the models will have any significant shift to the left with the dropsondes showing more ridging to her north and in her meager state can she actually buckle that ridge?

[Swimdude]

I will seriously quit watching hurricanes if this becomes the 4th tropical storm this season to peak at 70mph!

Yeah, nearly the 5th. I believe it was Harvey that peaked at 65 mph. That's really getting irritating.