INVEST 96L

[jimvb]

GFDL's latest run turns this into a Category 3 hurricane NE of the Leeward Is. GFS shows it heading to the coast and then turning it away.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

So what do you think they are showing that "L" for? A phantom system that has not even developed? Also I always thought that when there was a storm in the mid/north atlantic getting pushed out the the n/ne by a trough that a strong high pressure built in back behind it. I did read the Tampa NWS long term forecast and they said eastern zonal flow setting up for next week with high pressure building in. I'm just wondering if something else comes along it want get pulled north.

[Frank2]

I know I'm a broken record in pointing this out, but, there are many comparisons to the '81 season - including the names themselves:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

that year, the season also began early, but, slow moving Hurricane Emily carved out a deep trough in the western Atlantic, and, from that point on, each major hurricane that approached the trough recurved into the north Atlantic.

Frank

[Frank2]

Re: CYCLONE MIKE'S post

I always thought that when there was a storm in the mid/north atlantic getting pushed out the the n/ne by a trough that a strong high pressure built in back behind it.

Not always - sometimes, the low only enhances the trough. It's similar to a rain gutter - if water only moves down the rain gutter one time, debris might fill in the trough and block any future movement, but, if one water flow after another goes through the gutter, then, the gutter (trough) will remain.

[Andrew92]

I know I'm a broken record in pointing this out, but, there are many comparisons to the '81 season - including the names themselves:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

that year, the season also began early, but, slow moving Hurricane Emily carved out a deep trough in the western Atlantic, and, from that point on, each major hurricane that approached the trough recurved into the north Atlantic.

Frank

I wasn't around in 1981, so take me with a little bit of a grain of salt, but I think this season is more like 1995 than 1981. Let's face it, 1981 had NO GOM activity whatsoever; 2005 has already had several storms in the GOM. Maybe we won't have another GOM storm the rest of the season; however, many likely thought the same about 1995, and then came Opal.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

JMO.

-Andrew92

[Frank2]

Yes, good point - well, it's like '81 and '95!!

Frank

P.S. My hope is that in the days ahead, OCM's will explain to the public that while this season may set a record for the number of named storms, in no way does this mean that it will set a record for the number of landfalling systems.

I get the distinct impression (and from what some have told me at work, etc.) that many in the public have been confused by the statements made by CSU, NOAA, local OCM's, etc., and believe the latter statement to be true - while it might become true, it may very well not become truth even in a distant sense.

Something else to consider at this time - it's important to note that, so far, there has only been one landfalling hurricane in the U.S., and, while I'm not sure of the statistics, this actually might be below average this far into the season.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Darn it don't tell me I just stayed up all night waiting for 96L to be upgraded(It should be). I will give it another 5 minutes. GRRRRRRRRR!!!

[gkrangers]

Darn it don't tell me I just stayed up all night waiting for 96L to be upgraded(It should be). I will give it another 5 minutes. GRRRRRRRRR!!!

The 11AM package came out 30 minutes ago, it wans't upgraded, go to sleep.

96L does look like it warrants classification as a TD.

[cycloneye]

340
ABNT20 KNHC 131512
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IRENE... LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA
AND ABOUT 480 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE
FORMING ABOUT 1000 MILES EATS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF NORTHWEST
OVER OPEN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Ixolib]

Sounds like DH has been talking to the folks at the TPC!!

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS
TO BE FORMING ABOUT 1000 MILES EATS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

[cycloneye]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

...CORRECTION...IT SHOULD SAY EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...



They just corrected it.

[Ixolib]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005

...CORRECTION...IT SHOULD SAY EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...



They just corrected it.

They're quick!!

[yoda]

Darn it don't tell me I just stayed up all night waiting for 96L to be upgraded(It should be). I will give it another 5 minutes. GRRRRRRRRR!!!

[jrod]

It looks better now than Irene did at many points of its life. I am suprised it was not upgraded. The visual satellite the TWC has been showing looks like a TS to me. Im not a forecaster so my opinion means squat.

[Steve H.]

Irene isn't going to be enhancing any troughs, she's getting her knees cut out by the easterlies. She should go running off to the NE by midweek. There is currently a trough deep in the Mid Atlantic tht will bypass 96L and then she will head WNW toward the northern leewards. After that its anyones guess right now. Toward the end of August strong ridging should develop across the Atlantic. The pattern we are in will change, and I think it will have similarities to 2004. Not saying the landfalls will be in the same places, but it will certainly not be a fishy year. Things that concern me are those that develop west of 45W anyhow.

[Ivanhater]

hmmm this is another tough one.....why cant they be easy like emily and dennis?

[sma10]

Per the Meteosat IR loop, it looks like this system will recurve even earlier than Franklin, Harvey, Irene...

Click on

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

to view

Frank

P.S. Another well-organized system exited Africa on Thursday, and that too can be seen heading northwest just off the African coast.

As mentioned elsewhere yesterday - this may be a record season, but it seems that fortunately this is only true so far in a statistical sense. Last year, on the other hand, did set a record for landfalling systems in Florida.

Frank: I totally agree with you that the deep trough just to the west of 96L will impart an early and distinct northerly component. There is no doubt about it. However, it's far too early to forecast a recurve. In my opinion, I do believe it will gain enough latitude to get north of the Leewards. But I think it's forward motion will be relatively slow. If it gains a significant amount of latitude then, yes, it will recurve safely out to sea. However, if that trough lifts or splits (and we are talking many days down the road) we could actually be looking at a very similar situation one week from now that we just had with Irene....i.e. a cyclone spinning around at 25N 60W heading generally westward. It's quite possible.

[gkrangers]

Irene isn't going to be enhancing any troughs, she's getting her knees cut out by the easterlies. She should go running off to the NE by midweek. There is currently a trough deep in the Mid Atlantic tht will bypass 96L and then she will head WNW toward the northern leewards. After that its anyones guess right now. Toward the end of August strong ridging should develop across the Atlantic. The pattern we are in will change, and I think it will have similarities to 2004. Not saying the landfalls will be in the same places, but it will certainly not be a fishy year. Things that concern me are those that develop west of 45W anyhow.

I agree with Steve...there should be a more NW movement for now until it passes the central Atlantic trough. Then head more WNW, northeast of the northern Antilles. After that...the ridging will determine whether 96L moves westward towards the US or, like Irene, recurves through a weakness in the ridge. Too early to say much more.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlant...NESTO/track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlant...FLOYD/track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlant...ONNIE/track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlant...USTAV/track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlant.../EMMY/track.gif

Going back to 1970..those are the storms that formed close to 15N/45W.

[CronkPSU]

It looks better now than Irene did at many points of its life. I am suprised it was not upgraded. The visual satellite the TWC has been showing looks like a TS to me. Im not a forecaster so my opinion means squat.

sure does look better visually than irene ever did

[wxmann_91]

Shear is already increasing in around 96L, no matter where it goes, shear will impact it. So if it develops then it will struggle in a similar environment Irene was in.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html