Invest 97L Observation, Interpretation & Analysis (#2)

[Sanibel]

This cloud warming is more likely a pulse instead of weakening.

[caneman]

Can someone post the GFDL or we have to wait till later tonight to see the map?

18Z GFDL to 107kts. Hope this track and wind speed doesn't veirfy

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[benny]

Here is the link for the 18Z GFDL run. It takes it to 102 kts at 120 near the isle of youth. With a 15% reduction factor, still 100 mph storm.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Looks like Dennis or Lili's track...

[caneman]

Here is the link for the 18Z GFDL run. It takes it to 102 kts at 120 near the isle of youth. With a 15% reduction factor, still 100 mph storm.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Sorry. Didn't see your post.

[jlauderdal]

Can someone post the GFDL or we have to wait till later tonight to see the map?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Hurricaneman]

I dont like the gfdl, but it has been right before

[jlauderdal]

Can someone post the GFDL or we have to wait till later tonight to see the map?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[jlauderdal]

Can someone post the GFDL or we have to wait till later tonight to see the map?

18Z GFDL to 107kts. Hope this track and wind speed doesn't veirfy

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

it wont, dont worry

[Beam]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

The improving circulation is hard to miss on rainbow imagery. I'd be shocked if we don't have a TD, perhaps a TS, by Friday morning.

[cycloneye]

UNCLAS //N03146//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVLANTMETOCCEN//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 232330Z AUG 06//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.8N 54.7W TO 12.5N 62.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 231800Z INDICATE THAT A 1010MB
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 10.7N 54.7W IS CURRENTLY
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 KNOTS. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250000Z AUG 06.//




Above is the text of the Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert that was issued.

[wxman57]

Its way to early to make a track forecast for the Gulf of this system. Look at the model trend. The ridge can be stronger or the trough could be stronger thats whats going to make the final track.

No, it is not way too early to make a forecast. We have to do it every day. If this were declared a depression tonight/tomorrow, we have to immediately make a track forecast. Now it IS to early to be very confident about a likely landfall point along the Gulf Coast.

[Damar91]

Can someone post the GFDL or we have to wait till later tonight to see the map?

18Z GFDL to 107kts. Hope this track and wind speed doesn't veirfy

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Yeah, just a little nudge to the right, and we get it again. Let's wait until this thing actually gets to be a storm first though.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972006) ON 20060824 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060824 0000 060824 1200 060825 0000 060825 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.3N 56.3W 11.5N 58.8W 11.8N 61.1W 12.3N 63.3W
BAMM 11.3N 56.3W 11.6N 59.3W 12.1N 61.9W 12.9N 64.2W
A98E 11.3N 56.3W 11.8N 59.6W 12.4N 62.5W 13.0N 65.1W
LBAR 11.3N 56.3W 11.8N 59.4W 12.4N 62.5W 12.8N 65.7W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 43KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 43KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060826 0000 060827 0000 060828 0000 060829 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.9N 65.3W 15.1N 69.4W 17.8N 73.7W 19.6N 76.7W
BAMM 13.8N 66.3W 15.8N 70.4W 18.0N 74.9W 19.8N 78.6W
A98E 13.8N 67.3W 15.9N 71.2W 18.2N 74.8W 20.0N 77.6W
LBAR 13.1N 68.9W 15.5N 74.3W 19.1N 77.3W 20.2N 79.4W
SHIP 59KTS 73KTS 79KTS 84KTS
DSHP 59KTS 73KTS 79KTS 84KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 56.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 52.9W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 10.1N LONM24 = 49.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Trugunzn]

shows same path like Charley.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

-3 knots winds at 120 hours lower then the last one...

[Rainband]

shows same path like Charley.

different setup with Charley. Something would have to change Drastically for this to be a threat to Florida.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Is it just me or do people need to take a few minutes away from there computers, slow down there breathing and heart rates, and just calm down. I live 60 miles from N.O. LA and not worried at all about this "yet". For one it is still just an invest granted it does look very good tonight. Secondly it is a good 6 days from being around the gulf and as we know a lot can and will change by then. Third how often have the models been correct as to where a "potential storm" will be in 10 days. Lastly how many times this year has something almost everyone thought would be a player go POOF. Granted I know this could wind up a hurricane but as of now it is just pure speculation.

[wxman57]

Here is the link for the 18Z GFDL run. It takes it to 102 kts at 120 near the isle of youth. With a 15% reduction factor, still 100 mph storm.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Looks like Dennis or Lili's track...

My early thinking is more like Emily of 2005. A bit south of the current GFDL, clipping the NE Yucatan, and toward northern MX or south TX. Low confidence this far out, though.

[ronjon]

shows same path like Charley.

Since you brought it up, here's the track. One big difference, Charlie was turning north by the time it got to the isle of youth.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200403.asp

[skysummit]