Tropical Depression #5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Normandy]

Agreed They are not to far apart. It's still having a hard time building convection out ahead and showing wrapping over the LLC..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

I think its getting better organized, the two centers are getting closer.

[WeatherEmperor]

WHXX04 KWBC 242340
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 05L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 24

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.1 62.6 280./19.0
6 12.4 63.5 288./ 9.3
12 12.4 64.7 271./11.3
18 13.0 66.0 295./13.8
24 13.6 67.0 300./11.3
30 13.9 67.9 290./10.0
36 14.4 69.1 292./12.3
42 15.1 70.3 300./13.3
48 15.6 71.3 297./10.6
54 16.3 72.1 310./10.5
60 17.3 73.1 317./13.8
66 18.5 74.3 314./17.0
72 19.5 75.7 306./15.9
78 20.4 76.9 304./15.0
84 21.0 78.4 295./15.4
90 21.7 79.8 296./14.3
96 22.4 81.1 299./14.0
102 22.9 82.1 296./11.1
108 23.8 83.2 308./13.4
114 24.5 84.4 299./12.8
120 24.9 85.4 293./ 9.3
126 25.7 85.9 324./ 9.3


18z GFDL tracks more north than past 12z run.

Hmm...I wonder why the GFDL brings TD5 so high up.

<RICKY>

[Trugunzn]

What are some of u guys talking about the MLC is very close to the LLC. I think the wrap around convestion is wobbling to oraganize it self. Same thing happened to katrinia before it blew up. Ill show images to prove it.

[wxman57]

What are some of u guys talking about the MLC is very close to the LLC. I think the wrap around convestion is wobbling to oraganize it self. Same thing happened to katrinia before it blew up. Ill show images to prove it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

The MLC is about 80 miles ESE of the LLC, not far from Grenada. Most likely, the center will reform overnight closer to the MLC.

[Rainband]

I can't believe thisI just got home and I see same ole Same ole. It's a TD and it's starting already the it's going here it's going there.. There was already a reminder post about the chit chat and useless posts. This is going to be a long season. I read through this whole thread and about 10% was viable.

[Normandy]

^ Agreed...
If the LLC doesnt move under the MLC, itll reform.

[Senobia]

Well, I asked a viable question and it was lost in the fray.

[SouthFloridawx]

[wxman57]

I've identified the approximate locations of the LLC and MLC here:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby22.jpg

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its looking very good tonight. With convection forming over the center, the shear looks to be alot lower over the system right now. Would not be suprized if it became a tropical storm later tonight or tomarrow morning. It was very close to start out with. The slower it moves the better for it.

[Air Force Met]

Hmm...I wonder why the GFDL brings TD5 so high up.

<RICKY>

The GFDL sometimes responds to shear by taking tracking the system with the shear. IOW...when southerly shear is present...it has a tendency to use the shear as steering flow (as well as other steering flow present)...instead of just shear.

For example...2 days ago...it saw the shear it is going thru now...and steered the system towards the PR.

With Chris...it thought it was going to have from the low to the NE...and steered it over Hispaniola.

Sometime upper flow will steer a storm...but sometimes it just blows the tops off. THe gfdl always seems to make it steer the storm.

[Trugunzn]

But isnt the LLC slower?

[Extremeweatherguy]

The GFDL does seem to have shifted SW from earlier though. I think it may be trying to get back to reality.

[Jim Cantore]

That goes in my Best of LBAR 2006

and for anyone intrested. The name "Ernesto" is Italian.

[skysummit]

The GFDL does seem to have shifted SW from earlier though. I think it may be trying to get back to reality.

....and what are calling reality?

[jasons2k]

I've been a big proponent over the years to use restraint early in the game in preicting landfalls. And yes, the margin of error is HUGE. But one has to remember that over the years it will only get smaller over time. It wasn't so long ago when there was no "5-day" cone....

[Extremeweatherguy]

The GFDL does seem to have shifted SW from earlier though. I think it may be trying to get back to reality.

....and what are calling reality?

The NHC track.

Also the fact that this will likely not be going over the DR and into the bahamas as it showed earlier means it is showing a more realistic scenario.

[deltadog03]

I've identified the approximate locations of the LLC and MLC here:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby22.jpg

great points....I think we were seeing signs of the LLC getting tucked/sucked back closer to the MLC. IF** that is the case it will be looking much better for some strenghting.

[southerngale]

I think it's time to go fill up my 5-gal gas cans. Don't want to get caught in the last-minute rush and have stations running out because people are panicing. I can always use the gas in my car. I am concerned that in most cases, early tracks into the Gulf are almost always too far to the left. A study by Lance Wood at the Houston/Galveston NWS office indicated that 74% of the time over the past 10 years the track error was too far left on Gulf storms. So if the initial track is off (toward northern MX or south TX), it's more likely to hit farther up the coast.

If you're filling your gas cans, I think I will too. Like you said, it can always be used in the car...or the lawnmower.

Thanks for the info. I didn't know about the study, but I've always noticed how early tracks are usually too far left. When Rita was forecast to hit North Mexico/Deep South Texas last year, my sister and I called my dad and explained how we thought the forecast would shift farther east (based really on "they usually do") so we all made reservations then in Jasper. We knew we could cancel them if we didn't need them. As it turned out, we wished we had and went further inland as Rita did a number on us even up in Jasper.

Anyway, thanks to you, AFM, KFDM, and all the mets for their input on here.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

The NHC (right now) has TD5 a TS for at least the next 5 days.

Do you guys think that will pan out?