System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like JBs north of due west scenario might actually pan out. There is some model backing now:

18z GFS shows more of of a WNW flow in the 500mb pattern by next Wednesday afternoon as the ridge breaks down a bit...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml

And that continues into Thursday afternoon as the center of the high shifts west...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

If there is a system in the southern or central GOM at that point, then the path would be more WNW instead of W.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like JBs north of due west scenario might actually pan out. There is some model backing now:

18z GFS shows more of of a WNW flow in the 500mb pattern by next Wednesday afternoon as the ridge breaks down a bit...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _144.shtml

And that continues into Thursday afternoon as the center of the high shifts west...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

If there is a system in the southern or central GOM at that point, then the path would be more WNW instead of W.

sounds about again.. but like my previous statement it all depends on the shortwave trough how far south and how strong will determine the extent of that wnw motion

[Aric Dunn]

too bad the jamaician radar sucks really really bad http://www.metservice.gov.jm/radarpage.asp

[Aric Dunn]

pressure in jamiaca has been dropping all day .. not just the normal afternoon pressure drops either ..

down to 1009mb lower than the buoy near by or the cayman islands..

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MKJS.html

you know what i clicked on the wrong one the cayman islands are not that far off 1010 1011 ... ok so not that substantial

[miamicanes177]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/combined_shear_2.gif
this is not working so can someone post a link that gives the forecast shear from the GFS

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/combined_shear_2.gif
this is not working so can someone post a link that gives the forecast shear from the GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

actually gfs builds an upper ridge over the NW carrib in 24 hours

[KFDM Meteorologist]

If you look at Satellitte closely a ridge above it is already developing.

[Aric Dunn]

If you look at Satellitte closely a ridge above it is already developing.

agreed.. as that upper low moves west it appears that we may have a classic tutt set up to help vent this thing!! that might be a bad thing for someone !

I believe at the 00Z analysis it will clearly show the ridge build over that area!!

you can see here from the 18z to the 2100z sear map the the ridge is beginning to move nw follow the ULL

.

[Aric Dunn]

also the upper level divergence has improved drasticlly whuch also confirms the ridge building NW

18z


2100z



This buoy in the NW carrib is interesting

notice the wind shift to NNE

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[chadtm80]

Is the system that the models developing, the wave that is in the Caribbean at this time?

[Aric Dunn]

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL FEATURES ALONG WITH A LARGE AREA OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OVER
THE CARIB. THE DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN CONSISTS OF AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TWO UPPER HIGHS NEAR 16N78W
AND 15N65W AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW TO THE N OF THE REGION JUST E
OF THE BAHAMAS. WITHIN THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT THERE ARE TWO
AREAS WHERE CONVECTION IS FOCUSED. THE MOST PRONOUNCED IS THE N
CENTRAL/W CARIB...INCLUDING JAMAICA AND ERN CUBA N OF 15N
BETWEEN 74W-79W. THIS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BEING
TRIGGERED BY A SFC TROUGH WHICH IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TO THE CENTRAL CARIB SEA ALONG 25N76W 21N78W 15N76W.
SLIGHTLY WEAKER CONVECTION IS OVER THE ERN CARIB FROM 13N-16N
BETWEEN 64W-69W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 70W...REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ELSE IN THE
BASIN DUE TO THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.

[Aric Dunn]

Is the system that the models developing, the wave that is in the Caribbean at this time?

yes .. a combination of systems .. A wave and a surface trough but the surface trough near Jamaica i believe is the main focus

[chadtm80]

ok so we are talking about the convection here south of Jamaica?



Then I think we should add that info to the title of the thread to try and avoid repeat threads

[Aric Dunn]

ok so we are talking about the convection here south of Jamaica?

[img][/img]

Then I think we should add that info to the title of the thread to try and avoid repeat threads

sounds good to me

[MississippiHurricane]

Wow!!! This enviorment looks primed for development! I hope everyone is ready for this season, which I think, is fixing to go BOOM!

[Derek Ortt]

for the record, I mentioned the area in my PNJ post this evening, but am not about to sound the alarm

[Weatherfreak14]

Every thing is now changing, the season has started to act up with two possible systems by next week, If this develops which will be dean first?

[Aric Dunn]

for the record, I mentioned the area in my PNJ post this evening, but am not about to sound the alarm

lol.. whats the link.? can i read it?
record noted

[chadtm80]

for the record, I mentioned the area in my PNJ post this evening, but am not about to sound the alarm

PNJ post?

[mgpetre]

Personally I don't think the storm coming off Africa will really start till develop until this one in the Carribean is almost done. Just my guess.