EX INVEST 94L Thread

[flwxwatcher]

I am sure next week at this time their will still be disturbed weather in the NW Caribbean. We will have to see what pattern comes after this trof digs down toward the Northern Gulf later this week.

[cycloneye]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 081430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 08 OCTOBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z OCTOBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-136

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 09/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 09/1530Z
D. 19.5N 86.0W
E. 09/1730Z TO 09/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 10/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02KKA CYCLONE
C. 10/0230Z
D. 19.5N 87.5W
E. 10/0500Z TO 10/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES
IS SYSTEM REAMINS A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: TASKING ON THIS AREA FOR 08/1800Z
AND 09/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 08/1130Z.


Even though the missions for today and late tonight haved been canceled,NHC continues interested in the system as more missions are on tap for tommorow and the next day.

[Ed Mahmoud]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 081430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 08 OCTOBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z OCTOBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-136

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 09/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 09/1530Z
D. 19.5N 86.0W
E. 09/1730Z TO 09/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 10/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02KKA CYCLONE
C. 10/0230Z
D. 19.5N 87.5W
E. 10/0500Z TO 10/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES
IS SYSTEM REAMINS A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: TASKING ON THIS AREA FOR 08/1800Z
AND 09/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 08/1130Z.


Even though the missions for today and late tonight haved been canceled,the interest for the system remains as more missions are on tap for tommorow and the next day.

Hmmm, it may give former 90L a run for the record on most canx missions on an invest. 90L was 4 days in a row, this is what, 3 days in a row?

[hurricanetrack]

It's too bad the invests do not start at 90 and keep going until November 30. That would be cool to see 90L with Andrea in May and then 123L with what is 94L today.

How many invests that turned in to nothing have we had? Anyone?

[fci]

next invest please? I'm not quite sure there will be too many more given we are approaching mid October and there is a big trough that is supposed to dig down into the GOM in about 3-4 days with cool, dry air spreading across much of the central and northern GOM. (according to Wxman earlier in this post).

If you are right and Season 2007 is over; I look forward to seeing yall at S2K next June!
(still not quite sure that the Carib won't spin up one or two more though)

[wxman57]

It's too bad the invests do not start at 90 and keep going until November 30. That would be cool to see 90L with Andrea in May and then 123L with what is 94L today.

How many invests that turned in to nothing have we had? Anyone?

I count 36 invests (from saved emails). Of them, 14 reached at least TD strength, 13 TS or greater.

That's about 2/3 which never develop. Fairly typical. An invest = about a 30% chance of development.

[Thunder44]

Jeff Masters posted on his blog this morning. He still expects it to develop to a TD, mostly likely by tomorrow:

Heavy thunderstorm activity continues to flare up in association with a broad area of low pressure over the Western Caribbean (94L). This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a 300 mile-long line of converging surface winds north of the Honduras coast (Figure 1), but not a closed circulation. Top winds were about 25 mph. Satellite loops show fewer heavy thunderstorms than yesterday, but it appears that this activity is starting to get organized. Some low-level banding of the thunderstorm activity is occurring over the Cayman Islands, to the northeast side of the center of low pressure. Surface pressures remain very low over the entire Western Caribbean, but have not fallen since Saturday. Wind shear is about 10 knots, and is expected to remain 10 knots or below through Wednesday. The low surface pressures, light wind shear, and warm ocean waters are all very favorable for formation of a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunter flights scheduled for this afternoon and tonight were canceled, and have been rescheduled for Tuesday. I expect a tropical depression will form in the next 1-3 days, most likely on Tuesday.

Steering currents are weak in the Western Caribbean, and most of the computer models forecast that 94L will wander erratically for a week or longer in the region. A slow motion to the west or northwest is predicted for the next three days, which may bring the storm over the Yucatan Peninsula late this week. There is a strong trough of low pressure forecast to swing across the U.S. this week, which could pull 94L northwards across Western Cuba, the Florida Keys, or Southwest Florida, as forecast by the HWRF model. However, 94L would have to form quickly and grow large to "feel" the influence of this trough, and I estimate there is only a 30% chance that the trough will be able to pull 94L northwards over Florida.

Residents of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, northern Honduras, and Jamaica can expect occasional heavy rain squalls over the next 1-3 days from this storm. This activity could spread into the Florida Keys by Wednesday.

Link to his blog, including the QS image he shows in Figure 1: http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200710

[Thunder44]

134
ABNT20 KNHC 081501
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON OCT 8 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN BELIZE AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS.
WHILE SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN LOW IN THIS AREA...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS BROAD AND NOT WELL-DEFINED. THEREFORE...THE AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELED.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD. ANOTHER AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER RHOME

[cycloneye]

Hmmm, it may give former 90L a run for the record on most canx missions on an invest. 90L was 4 days in a row, this is what, 3 days in a row?

For 94L is the second day in a row.

[Frank2]

Despite what Jeff posted, it might be time to say, "That's all folks!"

The type of weather pattern Jeff mentioned usually happens just before the season ends, and, there really aren't any other areas of the tropics that are even somewhat favorable for development at this time, so...

That was my point about a month ago, and, why I found it hard to understand that some would say "we are entering an active La Nina phase over the next 3 months" - it just didn't make sense to even suggest that the season would actively continue through November and December, since that seemed to be the point of the NOAA press release...

I was really surprised (and a little disappointed) that some would make such a statement, since it seemed to lack in common sense - La Nina or no, Winter weather does set in (even in the tropics) by November and December, and, by that time, hurricane season is long over...

As some of us believed, it would be a matter of timing - had this happened a few months earlier, yes, then it would have been a problem, but, it seems the La Nina pattern came "too late" to have any affect on tropical activity...

I don't know - perhaps it's too much technology, but, it seems many people today have a serious lack of common sense...

Frank

[Ed Mahmoud]

next invest please? I'm not quite sure there will be too many more given we are approaching mid October and there is a big trough that is supposed to dig down into the GOM in about 3-4 days with cool, dry air spreading across much of the central and northern GOM. (according to Wxman earlier in this post).

If you are right and Season 2007 is over; I look forward to seeing yall at S2K next June!
(still not quite sure that the Carib won't spin up one or two more though)

Poor Florida posters, outside of the Panhandle, not even the dream of winter weather to last them until 01 June 08...

[anniecros]

Umm, as a resident of Palm Beach and Broward counties at all the wrong times - I have to take exception to this last post.

We don't want a hurricane. They suck. And don't pity us because we manage to stay warm in the winter.

[flwxwatcher]

next invest please? I'm not quite sure there will be too many more given we are approaching mid October and there is a big trough that is supposed to dig down into the GOM in about 3-4 days with cool, dry air spreading across much of the central and northern GOM. (according to Wxman earlier in this post).

If you are right and Season 2007 is over; I look forward to seeing yall at S2K next June!
(still not quite sure that the Carib won't spin up one or two more though)

Poor Florida posters, outside of the Panhandle, not even the dream of winter weather to last them until 01 June 08...

Of course there is always JB to stoke the tropical fire.. Just watched his Big Dog video and he says its more like September 8th instead of October 8th for the Hurricane season. We will see about that. Also, Not having any winter weather doesn't bother me one bit.

[Frank2]

Well, many come down here thinking it never does get cold, but, after a few months, they do realize that it does get cold in Florida (especially from the I-4 line northward)...

Many forget that the northwest or north winds found behind strong Florida cold fronts does not bring weather from the northeast (since, well, it's northeast of Florida), but, brings cold air directly from the area between Illinois and Nebraska, so, that's really cold air that often filters down through the southeast...

In North and North-Central Florida, many a winter morning is cold and damp (not unusual to see temps in the 20s and 30s), so, that can be very chilly when combined with a 90% RH at sunrise...

P.S. I've been out in Everglades National Park before sunrise during the winter months, and, more than once, our bicycling group was close to hypothermia due to very cold and damp early morning air...

[wzrgirl1]

yep it may not last too long....but it gets cold

[MWatkins]

Despite what Jeff posted, it might be time to say, "That's all folks!"

The type of weather pattern Jeff mentioned usually happens just before the season ends, and, there really aren't any other areas of the tropics that are even somewhat favorable for development at this time, so...

That was my point about a month ago, and, why I found it hard to understand that some would say "we are entering an active La Nina phase over the next 3 months" - it just didn't make sense to even suggest that the season would actively continue through November and December, since that seemed to be the point of the NOAA press release...

I was really surprised (and a little disappointed) that some would make such a statement, since it seemed to lack in common sense - La Nina or no, Winter weather does set in (even in the tropics) by November and December, and, by that time, hurricane season is long over...

As some of us believed, it would be a matter of timing - had this happened a few months earlier, yes, then it would have been a problem, but, it seems the La Nina pattern came "too late" to have any affect on tropical activity...

I don't know - perhaps it's too much technology, but, it seems many people today have a serious lack of common sense...

Frank

Ok, I'll bite. Please note I am making this post as a member and not a moderator.

Frank, you're "dissapointed" that people had opinions on how the rest of the season would play out, that somehow differed from your opinions? You know this is a message board, right?

La Nina patterns typically favor longer seasons...as noted by Klotzback/Gray and others. Are you calling these people out for having a lack of common sense?

These are serious research scientists. They do not base their "predictions" off of 3rd party reports they have heard from the media.

Suggesting these experts, who have put countless years into the science for no money or glory, is dissapointing.

Suggesting that members of this board lack common sense is just as insulting.

MW

[anniecros]

OK, fine, don't tell anybody who doesn't already know. Here in South Broward county, I close the windows in the winter maybe six times. Total. Sheesh, put some clothes on. I have had frost three times in 10 years in South Florida. Palm Beach county south. It melted at sunrise. We think it's cold - it isn't.

I still don't want no hurricane. Been there, done that. No more.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

***NOT OFFICIAL AND NOT ENDORSED BY STORM2K SO GO
TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEBSITE FOR
OFFICIAL INFORMATION BECAUSE MY POST IS NOT
OFFICIAL. THANK YOU VERY MUCH.****

This might go into the yucatan and then recurve
or go west. But I am not sure.

[CrazyC83]

It's only October 8. Look at the list of bad storms that have happened beyond this date: Tampa 1921, Cuba 1926, Hazel, Hattie, Roxanne, Mitch, Lenny, Michelle, Wilma...that is probably only a partial list...

[cycloneye]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCZ.html

In Cozumel pressures haved been down to 1004 mbs but haved gone up to 1006 mbs early this morning and haved stayed there.