ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[Swimdude]

This is the absolute best case scenario for Texas. A moderate tropical storm--what a great break!

I've lived in Texas since I was born... And I've never seen a drought this bad. Everyone is excited for the arrival of Don.

[SunnyThoughts]

51 and 52 knot FL recorded on recon, not flagged.

[SouthDadeFish]

This is the absolute best case scenario for Texas. A moderate tropical storm--what a great break!

I've lived in Texas since I was born... And I've never seen a drought this bad. Everyone is excited for the arrival of Don.

I think the best case would be to have a larger tropical storm than this little guy. But hey, its definitely better than nothing!

[KWT]

Yep swimdude, providing it doesn't provide any surprises, its good news as you say...

52kts found at FL on the last pass through, so probably is slightly strengthening at the moment.

[Swimdude]

Please use your weather voodoo powers to do three things:

A) Not allow the storm to strengthen to hurricane status to minimize any damage to Texas coast.
B) Not allow the storm to be a prolific tornado producer.
C) Guide the system towards Dallas as a depression/low after landfall.

We REALLY need the rain inland!

Ironically, the Dallas area is the area of Texas with the least severe drought. I'm in Arlington, TX, and I know that's hard to believe... But the rest of Texas is so much worse off than we are.

[ConvergenceZone]

This is the absolute best case scenario for Texas. A moderate tropical storm--what a great break!

I've lived in Texas since I was born... And I've never seen a drought this bad. Everyone is excited for the arrival of Don.

Yea, I"m excited for you guys too, and hopefully there will be a few more tropical storms to hit texas this year. You can use the rain, but our debt stricken economy doesn't need the damage. that would be bad news for all of us.

[stormywaves]

This is the absolute best case scenario for Texas. A moderate tropical storm--what a great break!

I've lived in Texas since I was born... And I've never seen a drought this bad. Everyone is excited for the arrival of Don.

I second all of that!

[Dave]

979
URNT15 KNHC 281547
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 35 20110728
153800 2439N 08953W 8429 01576 0101 +180 +070 138031 032 034 001 00
153830 2438N 08954W 8430 01573 0101 +180 +070 140032 032 035 000 00
153900 2437N 08955W 8434 01566 0096 +182 +069 142034 035 036 001 03
153930 2436N 08957W 8426 01572 0098 +176 +069 140037 038 035 001 03
154000 2434N 08958W 8427 01570 0097 +174 +068 139036 036 035 001 03
154030 2433N 08959W 8434 01561 0094 +177 +067 138037 039 038 001 00
154100 2432N 09000W 8427 01570 0094 +176 +066 139035 036 038 001 00
154130 2431N 09001W 8426 01563 0087 +181 +066 137034 035 039 001 00
154200 2430N 09003W 8432 01559 0084 +184 +065 136034 034 040 002 00
154230 2429N 09004W 8432 01560 0085 +180 +065 139033 034 040 003 00
154300 2428N 09005W 8426 01561 0082 +182 +064 138031 031 039 002 00
154330 2427N 09006W 8433 01554 0077 +187 +063 135032 033 038 001 00
154400 2426N 09007W 8431 01554 0073 +189 +064 138032 033 038 000 00
154430 2424N 09009W 8426 01555 0074 +185 +066 137030 030 037 000 03
154500 2423N 09010W 8430 01550 0068 +191 +067 137030 031 038 001 00
154530 2422N 09011W 8430 01546 0059 +200 +069 137032 033 040 001 00
154600 2421N 09012W 8435 01538 0056 +199 +072 141033 034 039 001 03
154630 2420N 09014W 8430 01543 0053 +197 +074 141034 034 038 000 03
154700 2419N 09015W 8429 01538 0040 +211 +076 138035 036 037 002 00
154730 2418N 09016W 8432 01533 0028 +227 +079 135032 034 034 000 03
$$
;

[stormywaves]

Why does Don show as an invest on the graphic for the active storms?

[Dave]

[artist]

Why does Don show as an invest on the graphic for the active storms?

try refreshing your browser window, it is showing Don here

[SFLcane]

Not to far from being completely exposed...

View here http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/2km.php?loop=1&type=vis&region=Yucatan&numimages=12

[Dave]

137
URNT15 KNHC 281557
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 36 20110728
154800 2417N 09018W 8427 01534 0020 +235 +083 131021 027 028 000 00
154830 2416N 09019W 8430 01529 0023 +226 +088 138004 010 025 000 00
154900 2414N 09020W 8432 01532 0036 +210 +091 292009 011 024 000 00
154930 2413N 09021W 8428 01538 0047 +197 +091 294014 015 027 001 00
155000 2412N 09022W 8432 01538 0056 +188 +089 296015 017 035 003 00
155030 2411N 09023W 8433 01540 0065 +181 +082 311016 017 033 004 00
155100 2410N 09024W 8430 01544 0068 +180 +073 302016 017 033 000 00
155130 2409N 09026W 8436 01543 0073 +180 +066 308014 016 030 003 00
155200 2407N 09027W 8429 01552 0076 +180 +061 314015 015 026 000 00
155230 2406N 09028W 8429 01556 0079 +181 +058 316018 019 026 001 00
155300 2405N 09029W 8430 01555 0082 +176 +058 315018 020 026 001 03
155330 2404N 09031W 8426 01561 0084 +175 +056 316016 017 026 000 00
155400 2403N 09032W 8434 01552 0085 +175 +055 314017 017 024 000 00
155430 2402N 09033W 8428 01559 0086 +174 +055 318017 017 024 000 00
155500 2401N 09034W 8428 01560 0089 +173 +054 316018 018 022 001 00
155530 2400N 09036W 8431 01559 0091 +170 +053 315018 018 023 000 00
155600 2358N 09037W 8425 01565 0090 +174 +052 319017 019 025 000 00
155630 2357N 09038W 8429 01561 0093 +170 +052 321017 018 023 001 00
155700 2356N 09039W 8431 01560 0094 +169 +050 317016 017 022 000 00
155730 2355N 09041W 8430 01563 0095 +173 +048 322014 014 020 001 03
$$
;

[Sanibel]

Looks like the shear wins over hurricane burst expectations. I don't know where people were getting those "near perfect conditions in the Gulf" quotes. TWC was right. Shear in the Gulf should hamper development (unless it abates).

[TexWx]

Looking at this:

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/2km.php?loop=1&type=vis&region=Yucatan&numimages=12

I don't know where they get NW?

[SouthDadeFish]

Not to far from being completely exposed...

View here http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/2km.php?loop=1&type=vis&region=Yucatan&numimages=12

Really looks tilted with height.

[Lane]

What does it mean when people refer to the recon data as flagged or unflagged?

[KWT]

Outflow boundary racing out of the convection, could well see Don exposed soon as has just been noted...

Convection will probably weaken in the next 2-3hrs before another bursting phase sets off some point in the 9-12hrs range IMO.

[Stormcenter]

Great loop.....thanks. I still think he's holding his own and recon. seems
to confirm this.

Anyway looking at that loop it looks like S. TX (Brownsville) is out of the woods.

Not to far from being completely exposed...

View here http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/2km.php?loop=1&type=vis&region=Yucatan&numimages=12

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like the shear wins over hurricane burst expectations. I don't know where people were getting those "near perfect conditions in the Gulf" quotes. TWC was right. Shear in the Gulf should hamper development (unless it abates).

Shear wasn't forecast to be this strong in the Gulf. SHIPS really changed its forecast last night. Previously was forecasting shear to be less than 10 knots.