ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Rgv20]

18zGFDL +18hrs

[Aric Dunn]

HWRF definitely more west.. dang... NHC does not normally make large changes in track from run to run but I feel a west shift is in the making, not sure how much, but would not be surprised to see it around the MS/AL line at the minimum.. just my unprofessional SWAG at best... always follow the NHC for their forecasts because they are the best in the business...

well just like 2 days ago it was west then yesterday it was east now its back west. its a flag flapping in the wind. no need for anyone to make absolute statements nor can they. we will know more tonight and more in a couple days after the system gets near the islands and the players are actually in place right now the trof is still over the NW/ ne pacific the weakness is not there. so until those start falling into place no one can say much except analyze the model outputs. notice where the gulf stream is now flying north of hispaniola and pr because right now the ridging there is whats steering the system. in a couple days the gulfstream will be sampling area over the western atlantic and gulf and so on. right now we just dont know past essentially 48 hours.

So we still won't know if it's gonna go to SFL in the 00z runs?

I can tell you that being its such a large system that SFl will very likely feel some effects from it. heavy rain winds. but the 00z will for sure give us a much better idea about the next 48 to 72 hrs

[Stormlover2012]

and it looks like the center might be farther south also!!!

[Rgv20]

18zGFDL +36hrs

[KWT]

Well the HWRF never revs it up as much as it could, but even so it sends a hurricane into N.O from the ESE which is a very bad direction for anything to come in at.

[Stormlover2012]

also remember the gfs on sunday had it hitting towards texas

[SFLcane]

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

[Weatherfreak000]

Aric is right, tonight is huge. I expect models to hone in on landfall tonight. NGOM residents it's time to take notice...

[ROCK]

yes it did....but I dont think it was sniffing what the EURO is now....HWRF is in line with the NOGAPS now. GFDL soon to follow....EURO set the trend...

[sphelps8681]

It seems as though the euro and gfs are in some disagreement. Euro way left gfs to the right. But when you have two of the best models out there in such disagreement you have to stop and watch. Went through Ike and Rita and I can tell you things can change. Those that are looking at the gfs for guidance because it shows them in the path should stand up and take notice as to what it is showing. But the same holds true for the other model not in agreement. Those people under the gun on the other model should pay attention as well. It does not mean one is winning over the other. It just is causing questions and statements from both sides. Time will tell for either model. We can agree to disagree as they say.

[Stormlover2012]

guys I don't think it matters the trend is going to be west, the high pressure is going to build in the southeastern, I mean thats just the way it look, this isn't a official forecast just my opinion, its about the upper level and the upper level is trending that way

[karenfromheaven]

That is a significant landfall shift west for the HWRF. If the 18Z GFDL has a similar shift, the NHC will face a tricky track decision at 11 PM. If they leave the track largely unchanged, it will become an eastward outlier. If they shift it to split the difference with the 12Z Euro, they might have to walk it back tomorrow morning after the 00Z runs. If the GFDL shifts, I think they will tweak the track to the left and explain the small adjustment as being in the interest of continuity.

This post in this forum is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Rgv20]

18zGFDL +84hrs

[Weatherfreak000]

IMO Euro will shift back east some. It appears to shift west to east and has been for days. Just gonna have to wait and find out..

[Aric Dunn]

That is a significant landfall shift west for the HWRF. If the 18Z GFDL has a similar shift, the NHC will face a tricky track decision at 11 PM. If they leave the track largely unchanged, it will become an eastward outlier. If they shift it to split the difference with the 12Z Euro, they might have to walk it back tomorrow morning after the 00Z runs. If the GFDL shifts, I think they will tweak the track to the left and explain the small adjustment as being in the interest of continuity.

This post in this forum is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

They wont change it much except for adjusting the time no new data is in on the 18z runs they will make changes for the 5am package after the 00z models come in if need be.

[SunnyThoughts]

I"d put a little more emphasis on the GFS and the EURO 0z runs tonight considering they have the information from the Gulfstream flight ingested.

[ROCK]

I dont think the EURO is done with the west shift,,,JMO

This post in this forum is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[djmikey]

I think the NHC track will shift west tonight, BUT many of you are expecting this track shift to jump from FL to LA in one update. Remember (and many of you already know this) NHC hates bunny hopping! If they shift either way, it WILL be slow and smooth!

[stormhunter7]

First set of Special Ballon launches, requested by NHC... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/12082318_OBS/ Need to watch these in coming days... data will fill into each new models runs, since there expected to launch ballons every 6 hours

[Stormlover2012]

nah your right rock, I mean its just the way the upper level pattern is, he doesnt matter if this thing gets strong the pattern is shaping up to be a strong high pressure in the southeast