Texas Winter 2014-2015

[South Texas Storms]

I'm in Cozumel, Mexico right now where the temperature is approaching 80 degrees! I'm sure wxman is jealous

[dhweather]

So many things have to happen just right for us to get any winter precipitation. A change in temperatures of just 2-3 degrees can make or break us. The track of a low 50 miles north/south can kill us. Statistically, the odds are stacked heavily against us, just as the odds of 100 degree days up north are.

[cycloneye]

I'm in Cozumel, Mexico right now where the temperature is approaching 80 degrees! I'm sure wxman is jealous

You bet.

[Portastorm]

Latest SREF (9z) shows a mix of freezing rain and sleet for Austin from early Saturday morning until at least Saturday evening. The run ends at 6 p.m. where it is still coming down.

[Rgv20]

12zCMC has temperatures for my area all day Saturday in the mid to upper 30s with Rain coming down....Nice!

[Brandon8181]

I live near Tyler, TX and the forecasted high today was 41. It is currently 48 and warming. Why the huge temperature bust? They have sleet snow and freezing rain in the forecast Thu-Sun.

[ronyan]

I live near Tyler, TX and the forecasted high today was 41. It is currently 48 and warming. Why the huge temperature bust? They have sleet snow and freezing rain in the forecast Thu-Sun.

I think you're just dealing with a timing issue on when the colder air will move in. A couple hours can make a big difference in how much it warms during the morning/afternoon and what the actual high temp ends up being. It won't be long before the air starts cooling as DFW is already mid to upper 30s.

[ndale]

I live near Tyler, TX and the forecasted high today was 41. It is currently 48 and warming. Why the huge temperature bust? They have sleet snow and freezing rain in the forecast Thu-Sun.

Pro met on another forum explans this as "Pre-Frontal compressional heating" which has little effect on the cold air, he says in hours it will be much colder.

[kingwood_tx1999]

I live near Tyler, TX and the forecasted high today was 41. It is currently 48 and warming. Why the huge temperature bust? They have sleet snow and freezing rain in the forecast Thu-Sun.

Pro met on another forum explans this as "Pre-Frontal compressional heating" which has little effect on the cold air, he says in hours it will be much colder.

Good Ole brooks garner in Hou

[iorange55]

So many things have to happen just right for us to get any winter precipitation. A change in temperatures of just 2-3 degrees can make or break us. The track of a low 50 miles north/south can kill us. Statistically, the odds are stacked heavily against us, just as the odds of 100 degree days up north are.

Yeah, it is difficult, but it's something you expect to happen (at least in North Texas) every single year. On average, we receive 1-3 storms a year. I would say a year where we don't experience any winter weather is more unusual.

[hriverajr]

Just eyeballing it.. a whole heck of a lot of moisture in Mexico. Cloud deck beginning to encroach on Del Rio area from the south.

[arizona_sooner]

Well, the local guys here in Tulsa have forecasted the cold air pretty well so far. We are at 19F now and have been on a pretty constant downward trend all day. Skies will be clearing from the north however, so this afternoon we might go back above 20F for a little while. This is certainly a more impressive cold blast than last week.

[Portastorm]

I really think EWX needs to issue a Winter Storm Watch for Friday evening into Saturday for portions of its CWA. Technically the criteria is anywhere from 12 to 48 hours in advance of a "significant" winter storm event. With QPF values showing at least 0.25" of what will almost assuredly be all freezing rain/sleet ... and surface temps below freezing ... that would create a significant problem in the metro area for the general public. I know they won't as they'll be cautious and probably wait another model cycle or two ... but the more I'm seeing on the models and satellite, the more I'm thinking this one will really happen in Austin.

Yeah ... get your Charlie Brown/Lucy jpegs ready for Saturday if I fall on my backside again. But dangit, this time I'm really going to kick the football!

[Wthrlvrmom]

NWS forecast for Weatherford, TX shows 30% sleet/snow from Thursday night all the way to Saturday, and does not get above freezing until Saturday with return of freezing rain Saturday night when temperature drops back down to 30 degrees. Is this probable? Or could there still be a significant change in the forecast between now and then?

[dhweather]

Was it 2009-2010 that we got the two separate 6+ " snow events ?

[dhweather]

From FWD



NWS UPDATE: Weekend Winter Potential
Submitted by wd5m on Wed, 2015-01-07 14:21
Jan7.png

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Wednesday, 7 January 2015 13:08 CST

Good afternoon,

A tricky forecast is shaping up, but it does appear that some portions of North or Central Texas will have some impacts from winter precipitation by Friday and Saturday. A short pdf has been attached to show the affected areas, confidence and anticipated impacts.

BOTTOM LINE: Emergency Managers, elected officials, public works departments, and other public safety officials should monitor for the potential of winter precipitation over the weekend. Check on this forecast often, as there will a narrow band of high impacts for some, while most of us will receive minor, or no impacts. Much like the last event, temperatures and timing will be the primary factor for those that get impacts or not. Precipitation is anticipated to continue through Sunday, with temperatures rising above freezing by the end of the weekend.

PRIMARY IMPACTS: Southern sections of the area, generally south of I-20, will see a mixture of rain or freezing rain. Impacts would be travel problems, power outages, and icy roadways. North of I-20, the precipitation type is anticipated to be a mixture of snow and sleet. Impacts would be travel problems, and slick elevated surfaces.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN: The primary area of impact is anticipated to be a narrow (about 50-75 mile) band, generally centered on an area from Comanche, to Waco, to Palestine.

TIMING: Precipitation is expected to begin as early as late Thursday night, and is anticipated to move from south to north. Precipitation becomes more widespread by Friday and will last through Sunday night.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is low confidence in the locations and timing of this forecast, with a confidence factor of 3 on a 10-point scale. The confidence is low on the locations, not on the precipitation types, or impacts.

Alternate scenarios: plenty. Since this is expected to be a banded system, the exact location of these bands will be difficult to pinpoint. Yesterday, we believed the bands would be near I-20. Today, it appears to be a bit further south. Expect this area to change, at least slightly, until the system is in the area.

[Ellsey]

Was it 2009-2010 that we got the two separate 6+ " snow events ?

It was. My son was born in December of 2009, and it seemed like every time we took him out it snowed. It was the craziest thing ever.

[wxman57]

I don't see this as a major snow event across Texas. Both the EC & GFS have pushed the second precip surge back to later on Saturday and Sunday after the air has modified more. Could be a significant freezing rain event across central TX. Possibly enough ice to cause power issues as tree branches fall on power lines. That's only a possibility, though. More likely just travel issues.

I don't see any biking weather in the near future. I'm booking a flight to Cozumel now...

[SouthernMet]

I agree about the WSW Porta but I will say the trends of more of a saturday-sunday event as opposed to a Friday night-Saturday morning event lowers my confidence in an significant event. Also it's looking the sleet could now be the predominate precip type for Austin metro with periods of light freezing rain.

[orangeblood]

:uarrow: I agree about the WSW Porta but I will say the trends of more of a saturday-sunday event as opposed to a Friday night-Saturday morning event lowers my confidence in an significant event. Also it's looking the sleet could now be the predominate precip type for Austin metro with periods of light freezing rain.

Yeah, temps seem too borderline and wind direction is bad (south/southeast wind) by Saturday afternoon onward to become too impactful...sub 30 deg F is temps I look for to sound alarms.

Looking beyond this weekends storm, keep an eye on Mid-weeks system...this one continues to get stronger/deeper and further south with each subsequent model run. Southern plains to Monster East Coast Northeaster is on the table next week!!