Texas Winter 2025-2026

[TomballEd]

Waiting on the Happy Hour. Clown maps should be fun.

[wxman22]

Strong snow signal showing up here on the EPS.And multiple days with lows in the single digits on the Euro.

[Ntxw]

18z NAM (caution lalaland for this model) 1057mb. I'd watch the trends for HP too. Definitely one of the more powerful ones we have seen come down.

[Stratton23]

wxman22 thats some February 2021 type cold right there , 4-5 days of well below freezing, good lord, its going to be a lot colder down here if the Euro is showing temps like that in north texas

[Gotwood]

18z NAM (caution lalaland for this model) 1057mb. I'd watch the trends for HP too. Definitely one of the more powerful ones we have seen come down.

https://i.imgur.com/JN2YQkP.png

The position of the HP looks better as well for us correct?

[Snowman67]

I live on the Harris County/Montgomery County line in far Northwest Tomball. Are the models currently showing freezing rain here with this storm, or mainly just rain?

[gpsnowman]

18z NAM (caution lalaland for this model) 1057mb. I'd watch the trends for HP too. Definitely one of the more powerful ones we have seen come down.

https://i.imgur.com/JN2YQkP.png

The position of the HP looks better as well for us correct?

Looks it to me. Position that beast over Montana.

[HockeyTx82]

18z NAM (caution lalaland for this model) 1057mb. I'd watch the trends for HP too. Definitely one of the more powerful ones we have seen come down.

https://i.imgur.com/JN2YQkP.png

The position of the HP looks better as well for us correct?

When you say looks better, do you mean not crushing the infrastructure and causing widespread chaos, or hell yeah we're going to get obliterated and shut down everything! I think our definition of better on this website sometimes escapes us.

I'm not saying anyone's condoning destruction, but at the same time I'm just curious what better means.

[Gotwood]

18z NAM (caution lalaland for this model) 1057mb. I'd watch the trends for HP too. Definitely one of the more powerful ones we have seen come down.

https://i.imgur.com/JN2YQkP.png

The position of the HP looks better as well for us correct?

When you say looks better, do you mean not crushing the infrastructure and causing widespread chaos, or hell yeah we're going to get obliterated and shut down everything! I think our definition of better on this website sometimes escapes us.

I'm not saying anyone's condoning destruction, but at the same time I'm just curious what better means.

lol I’m sorry. I meant better for cold/ winter magic. I obviously don’t want any infrastructure issues but I also don’t want to miss out on winter weather again.

[Ntxw]

18z NAM (caution lalaland for this model) 1057mb. I'd watch the trends for HP too. Definitely one of the more powerful ones we have seen come down.

https://i.imgur.com/JN2YQkP.png

The position of the HP looks better as well for us correct?

When you say looks better, do you mean not crushing the infrastructure and causing widespread chaos, or hell yeah we're going to get obliterated and shut down everything! I think our definition of better on this website sometimes escapes us.

I'm not saying anyone's condoning destruction, but at the same time I'm just curious what better means.

I think he means is it good for providing cold to snow. I would just expect cold faster and more than current guidance depictions. It will come down to behavior of the STJ. Regardless if the ULL comes out or not, a slug of deep tropical moisture will get flung ahead over the cold. Stronger high = colder.

Just not a lot to go by in terms of history for systems. Even 2021 wasn't as strong a HP (but the cold was deep), Feb 2010 was mediocre HP and cold but very intense STJ.

[HockeyTx82]

My Microsoft weather app now has a high of 20 on Saturday down to almost 10, and then not above freezing until Monday if that.

Every time I hit refresh it just keeps getting colder and colder and colder.

[HockeyTx82]

The position of the HP looks better as well for us correct?

When you say looks better, do you mean not crushing the infrastructure and causing widespread chaos, or hell yeah we're going to get obliterated and shut down everything! I think our definition of better on this website sometimes escapes us.

I'm not saying anyone's condoning destruction, but at the same time I'm just curious what better means.

lol I’m sorry. I meant better for cold/ winter magic. I obviously don’t want any infrastructure issues but I also don’t want to miss out on winter weather again.

I figured as such but I just was curious.

With lots of people may be dropping in I think we all need to be careful with our words and not make assumptions of lingo where it might confuse people who are just cruising the site.

No harm done.

[Ntxw]

NWS FW discussion this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 117 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

The confidence in impactful winter weather continues to increase
this weekend for much of North and Central Texas. Given
uncertainties in precipitation type and amounts, there remains
uncertainty in the level of impact across our area.

Tuesday - Thursday

Prior to this weekend`s wintry mischief, we`ll have to content
with a round of precipitation (not of the frozen variety) Tuesday
night into Wednesday. As high pressure builds in the Lower
Mississippi River Delta, our winds will become southerly ,
enhancing the moisture content across the region. A shortwave will
be diving southeast out of the Rockies on Tuesday, enhancing
forcing for ascent in North Texas. This forcing will become
enhanced by the right-entrance quadrant of the southern branch of
the jet stream, leading to widespread precipitation east of I-35.
Rain totals will range between a tenth of an inch along the
immediate I-35 corridor to around half an inch in East Texas. As
the shortwave continues to move east, it will drag a cold front
southward, ensuring temperatures stay in the 50s and 60s Wednesday
and Thursday.

Friday - Saturday

A strong cold front will be barreling southward out of Oklahoma
Friday morning, ushering in cold temperatures across our entire
region. By the afternoon, the front will have pushed across all of
Central Texas, sending temperatures tumbling throughout the day.
The latest iteration of the forecast did trim Friday`s temperatures
down by a few degrees compared to the previous forecast with high
temperatures likely occurring in the morning in North Texas and
early afternoon in Central Texas. By Friday evening, freezing
temperatures will begin to overtake the region from north to south
as we begin a prolonged period of widespread freezing
temperatures. There is a low chance that the Arctic air intrusion
arrives earlier than currently expected, ushering temperatures
below 32 degrees during the afternoon/evening rush. This
potential, albeit low, will continue to be monitored in the coming
days as it could have implications on potential impacts across
North and Central Texas.

Concurrent with the decreasing temperatures will be the arrival
of precipitation as a series of shortwaves move overhead. Each
passing shortwave will induce isentropic ascent atop the arctic
airmass, producing precipitation into a very cold surface
environment. With Friday night temperatures in the teens and 20s
areawide, the probability of impacts has increased across all of
North and Central Texas, starting as early as Friday evening and
continuing through the rest of the weekend.

You may be asking yourself if you should prepare for snow, sleet,
or ice -- the answer will depend on where you are reading this
from. If you`re in North Texas, the odds favor a transition from
rain to sleet to snow given the increasing depth of the cold air.
In Central Texas, a persistent elevated warm layer may lead to
more of a sleet/freezing rain mix which would generate it`s own
set of infrastructure impacts.

For now, the best action to take is to prepare for a long
duration of temperatures below 32 degrees, especially across North
Texas. Dangerously cold temperatures can be expected Saturday
night with widespread temperatures in the single digits and teens.
A persistent northerly breeze close to 10 mph will keep wind
chills near 0 degrees by Sunday morning. Should winds speeds be
stronger than currently expected, wind chills in the negatives
will be more widespread.

Cold temperatures of this magnitude will require active
preparation in advance. Make sure you are adequately prepared with
a source of heat and ensure pipes are properly covered heading
into the weekend.

Sunday Onward

Continued cold temperatures will persist on Sunday with much of
North Texas struggling to climb above freezing. As the center of
the surface high shifts south, precipitation looks unlikely on
Sunday. Some sunshine is expected during the afternoon before
clouds begin to move in once again as the surface high shifts
east. Another frigid night is expected Sunday night into Monday
with widespread teens in place. By Monday, temperatures rise above
freezing across all of North and Central Texas. Highs will be in
the 30s and 40s during the day, allowing for continued melting of
frozen precipitation across the region.

Austin/SA a bit shorter.

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1221 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

As the mid level impulse moves over our area, rain chances
continue over eastern areas on Wednesday, then exit to our east
Wednesday night. Warmer, above average temperatures are expected
Wednesday through Friday as a Pacific front lingers around our
area. Rainfall amounts should be less than 1/4 inch through this
event.

However, the warmth will be a memory by this weekend as an Arctic
front plunges across our area late Friday. Much colder, well below
average temperatures are expected in its wake. Mid and upper level
troughiness lingers from the southwestern states to over Baja
California with mid level impulses moving through the southwesterly
flow aloft. Periods of isentropic lift associated with each impulse
will result in rounds of precipitation Friday through much of the
weekend and possibly into next week. Forecast soundings indicate
it will start as rain with temperatures above freezing in the lower
and mid levels. Then, a freezing rain, sleet mix slowly spreads
from north to south with warm, above freezing mid levels over sub
freezing surface to lower levels. As this is a recent (within the
last 36 to 48 hours) significant change in the models and
ensembles, confidence in the scenario remains low, though slightly
increased. Stay tuned to the forecast this week into the weekend
for a potential of winter type precipitation (ice accumulations)
and cold temperature (wind chills in the single digits and teens)
impacts.

[Portastorm]

The position of the HP looks better as well for us correct?

When you say looks better, do you mean not crushing the infrastructure and causing widespread chaos, or hell yeah we're going to get obliterated and shut down everything! I think our definition of better on this website sometimes escapes us.

I'm not saying anyone's condoning destruction, but at the same time I'm just curious what better means.

I think he means is it good for providing cold to snow. I would just expect cold faster and more than current guidance depictions. It will come down to behavior of the STJ. Regardless if the ULL comes out or not, a slug of deep tropical moisture will get flung ahead over the cold. Stronger high = colder.

Just not a lot to go by in terms of history for systems. Even 2021 wasn't as strong a HP (but the cold was deep), Feb 2010 was mediocre HP and cold but very intense STJ.

I was just doing some research and the best I could find was that the high pressure near the US/Canadian border for the February 2021 winter apocalypse was around 1048 mb.

[rwfromkansas]

Reading the tea leaves with the NWS graphic they just posted, they seem to think more snow north of DFW, ice south, sleet/mixture in between.

[HockeyTx82]

https://www.weather.gov/fwd

Interesting graphic, so what happens in between right over DFW?

[wxman22]

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I live on the Harris County/Montgomery County line in far Northwest Tomball. Are the models currently showing freezing rain here with this storm, or mainly just rain?

I would prepare for a mixture of everything BUT snow.

[WacoWx]

Hate to jinx it, but TWC app now has Dallas getting 3-5" of ice/snow on Saturday.

[Quixotic]

18z NAM (caution lalaland for this model) 1057mb. I'd watch the trends for HP too. Definitely one of the more powerful ones we have seen come down.

https://i.imgur.com/JN2YQkP.png

The position of the HP looks better as well for us correct?

When you say looks better, do you mean not crushing the infrastructure and causing widespread chaos, or hell yeah we're going to get obliterated and shut down everything! I think our definition of better on this website sometimes escapes us.

I'm not saying anyone's condoning destruction, but at the same time I'm just curious what better means.

That’s the thing about the rolling blackouts. I didn’t sleep because my cpap kept shutting off. Couldn’t sleep worth a hoot.

I did almost everything else right. Marked the water shut off switch in 8” of snow. Had a cord of wood. Kept the pipes warm by opening the door to the attic. The only other thing I didn’t do right was drain the sprinkler system but even that there was only two breaks. One on my side and the joint before the shutoff valve. Cost $600 to fix it. Lost all my boxwoods and Indian hawthorns in the front yard. Even lost the youpon holly. lol. I didn’t think that was possible.