Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[Thunder44]

[TheEuropean]

669
SXXX50 KNHC 290820
AF306 1305A ERNESTO HDOB 33 KNHC
0810. 2237N 07836W 01526 0025 145 015 172 160 015 01588 0000000000
0811 2238N 07835W 01525 0025 142 015 172 162 016 01588 0000000000
0811. 2239N 07834W 01528 0026 151 021 164 164 024 01591 0000000000
0812 2241N 07833W 01525 0027 152 017 168 168 018 01589 0000000000
0812. 2242N 07832W 01525 0028 135 015 168 164 016 01590 0000000000
0813 2244N 07831W 01527 0028 138 019 166 164 020 01592 0000000000
0813. 2245N 07830W 01526 0029 140 019 166 162 019 01592 0000000000
0814 2246N 07828W 01526 0029 144 019 170 158 020 01593 0000000000
0814. 2248N 07827W 01526 0030 144 021 174 156 021 01593 0000000000
0815 2249N 07827W 01526 0030 146 023 172 152 023 01593 0000000000
0815. 2251N 07827W 01526 0031 144 025 170 146 026 01594 0000000000
0816 2253N 07826W 01526 0030 139 027 166 158 028 01593 0000000000
0816. 2255N 07826W 01527 0030 138 028 160 160 029 01593 0000000000
0817 2257N 07826W 01528 0028 141 029 156 156 032 01593 0000000000
0817. 2258N 07826W 01521 0032 139 028 156 156 030 01590 0000000000
0818 2300N 07825W 01530 0031 141 030 160 152 030 01598 0000000000
0818. 2301N 07823W 01526 0031 140 030 164 154 030 01594 0000000000
0819 2302N 07822W 01527 0031 139 031 164 158 032 01596 0000000000
0819. 2303N 07821W 01525 0032 136 031 168 154 031 01594 0000000000
0820 2304N 07819W 01527 0032 133 032 170 150 033 01596 0000000000

[Thunder44]

[Thunder44]

Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast/Advisory Number 19

0900 UTC Tue Aug 29 2006


at 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning is extended
northward along the Florida East Coast to New Smyrna Beach. A
Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are now in effect from
New Smyrna Beach southward on the East Coast...including Lake
Okeechobee...from Bonita Beach southward on the West Coast...and
for all of the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A
Hurricane Warning may be required for portions of South Florida and
the Florida Keys later this morning.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect from north of Bonita Beach
northward to Englewood on the Florida West Coast.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
Andros Island...the Berry Islands... the biminis and Grand Bahama
Island in the northwestern Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Ragged Island and
great Exuma in the central Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces
of Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba...Granma...Holguin...Las Tunas...
and Camaguey. The Tropical Storm Warning will likely be discontinued
for the easternmost provinces of Cuba later this morning.

Interests elsewhere in the central and northwestern Bahamas should
monitor the progress of Ernesto.

Tropical storm center located near 22.6n 78.9w at 29/0900z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 12 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1005 mb
Max sustained winds 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
34 kt....... 75ne 0se 0sw 0nw.
12 ft seas.. 80ne 0se 0sw 0nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 22.6n 78.9w at 29/0900z
at 29/0600z center was located near 22.2n 78.4w

forecast valid 29/1800z 23.8n 79.8w
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 35ne 30se 0sw 30nw.
34 kt... 75ne 60se 20sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 30/0600z 25.4n 80.7w...inland
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 50ne 40se 20sw 30nw.
34 kt... 90ne 75se 40sw 75nw.

Forecast valid 30/1800z 27.3n 81.0w...inland
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 30se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt...120ne 100se 30sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 31/0600z 29.7n 80.8w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 20sw 30nw.
34 kt...120ne 120se 50sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 01/0600z 34.7n 79.4w...inland
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt...150ne 120se 25sw 50nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 225 nm
on day 4 and 300 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 02/0600z 38.0n 79.0w...becoming extratropical inland
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.

Outlook valid 03/0600z 42.0n 80.0w...extratropical inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 22.6n 78.9w

next advisory at 29/1500z

$$
forecaster Stewart

[TheEuropean]

723
SXXX50 KNHC 290830
AF306 1305A ERNESTO HDOB 34 KNHC
0820. 2305N 07818W 01526 0032 133 033 172 148 033 01596 0000000000
0821 2306N 07817W 01526 0032 134 033 174 146 033 01595 0000000000
0821. 2307N 07815W 01526 0032 136 034 172 148 034 01595 0000000000
0822 2308N 07814W 01526 0031 140 034 170 152 034 01595 0000000000
0822. 2309N 07813W 01530 0033 142 035 164 160 035 01600 0000000000
0823 2310N 07811W 01522 0033 139 033 160 158 034 01592 0000000000
0823. 2311N 07810W 01526 0033 137 032 164 156 033 01597 0000000000
0824 2312N 07809W 01527 0034 137 035 162 162 036 01599 0000000000
0824. 2313N 07807W 01524 0033 137 036 142 142 037 01594 0000000000
0825 2314N 07806W 01529 0030 143 037 138 138 039 01597 0000000000
0825. 2315N 07804W 01527 0030 137 038 142 142 041 01595 0000000000
0826 2316N 07803W 01528 06v'6VG'G'6fg&V
0826. 2317N 07803W 01527 0038 124 037 142 142 038 01602 0000000000
0827 2318N 07805W 01522 0035 125 036 138 138 037 01594 0000000000
0827. 2317N 07807W 01533 0034 123 037 140 140 038 01605 0000000000
0828 2317N 07809W 01526 0033 125 034 144 144 039 01596 0000000000
0828. 2317N 07811W 01523 0033 134 035 142 142 035 01593 0000000000
0829 2317N 07813W 01528 0034 129 031 138 138 033 01599 0000000000
0829. 2317N 07815W 01527 0034 127 031 156 156 032 01599 0000000000
0830 2318N 07817W 01525 0034 130 036 162 150 037 01597 0000000000

[Thunder44]

[Thunder44]

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 29, 2006


...Ernesto back over water and a little stronger...
...Tropical Storm Warning extended northward along Florida East
Coast...

at 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning is extended
northward along the Florida East Coast to New Smyrna Beach. A
Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are now in effect from
New Smyrna Beach southward on the East Coast...including Lake
Okeechobee...from Bonita Beach southward on the West Coast...and
for all of the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A
Hurricane Warning may be required for portions of South Florida and
the Florida Keys later this morning.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect from north of Bonita Beach
northward to Englewood on the Florida West Coast.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
Andros Island...the Berry Islands... the biminis and Grand Bahama
Island in the northwestern Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Ragged Island and
great Exuma in the central Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces
of Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba...Granma...Holguin...Las Tunas...
and Camaguey. The Tropical Storm Warning will likely be discontinued
for the easternmost provinces of Cuba later this morning.

Interests elsewhere in the central and northwestern Bahamas should
monitor the progress of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 500 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 22.6 north...longitude 78.9 west or about 230
miles...370 km...southeast of Key West Florida and about 235 miles
...380 km...south-southeast of Miami Florida.

Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph...22 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
On the forecast track...the center of Ernesto will be near the
Florida Keys or Southeast Florida by this evening. However...
squally eainbands will be moving onshore these areas during the
afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and it is possible that Ernesto could be near hurricane strength
when it makes landfall along the southern Florida Peninsula.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts up to 10
inches are expected over eastern Cuba. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches with isolated amounts up to 6 inches are expected over
central Cuba. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with
possible isolated amounts of 3 to 6 inches are possible over the
Bahamas. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are possible over
portions of eastern and southern Florida and the Keys through
Wednesday...with isolated amounts up to 15 inches possible over
southeastern Florida.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels
can be expected in areas of onshore flow within the warning area.

Repeating the 500 am EDT position...22.6 N...78.9 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
am EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Thunder44]

901
SXXX50 KNHC 290840
AF306 1305A ERNESTO HDOB 35 KNHC
0830. 2319N 07819W 01523 0034 132 035 160 152 035 01594 0000000000
0831 2319N 07821W 01529 0033 134 032 162 158 033 01599 0000000000
0831. 2319N 07823W 01523 0031 128 031 144 144 032 01592 0000000000
0832 2319N 07825W 01527 0032 135 032 136 136 033 01596 0000000000
0832. 2319N 07826W 01528 0031 126 031 144 144 032 01597 0000000000
0833 2319N 07828W 01525 0031 134 028 136 136 032 01593 0000000000
0833. 2319N 07830W 01527 0031 135 032 140 140 032 01595 0000000000
0834 2319N 07832W 01528 0032 132 030 146 146 031 01597 0000000000
0834. 2319N 07834W 01526 0032 130 031 146 146 032 01595 0000000000
0835 2319N 07836W 01527 0033 127 026 150 150 030 01598 0000000000
0835. 2319N 07838W 01525 0034 119 026 152 152 027 01596 0000000000
0836 2319N 07840W 01528 0034 114 027 156 156 029 01599 0000000000
0836. 2319N 07842W 01525 0033 116 024 154 154 024 01596 0000000000
0837 2319N 07844W 01526 0034 118 025 162 162 025 01596 0000000000
0837. 2319N 07846W 01527 0033 115 026 152 152 027 01598 0000000000
0838 2319N 07848W 01526 0032 119 030 152 152 032 01595 0000000000
0838. 2319N 07850W 01528 0030 111 030 144 144 032 01596 0000000000
0839 2319N 07852W 01526 0031 108 025 148 148 026 01594 0000000000
0839. 2318N 07854W 01528 0032 105 025 158 158 026 01598 0000000000
0840 2318N 07856W 01521 0033 092 024 160 160 025 01592 0000000000

[TheEuropean]

Ok, Thunder, I have to work now, so can you take over now?

[Thunder44]

Ok, Thunder, I have to work now, so can you take over now?

Yeah, although anybody else welcome to post the obs.

[Thunder44]

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 19

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 29, 2006



an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has been investigating
Ernesto this morning and flight-level wind data indicate the
circulation center has finally moved off the north coast of Cuba
and is back over water. The center is just inside the southwestern
portion of yet another early morning convective burst noted in
radar data from Miami and Camaguey Cuba...and also in satellite
imagery. The initial intensity of 40 kt is based on a 50-kt
flight-level wind observed in the northeastern quadrant within the
deep convective cloud mass. Special thanks to the government of
Cuba for permitting the recon aircraft fly right up to their
coastline to gather this critical weather data.
Based on the recon fix information...the initial motion is
315/12...which is right on the previous forecast track. The global
and regional models appear to have stabilized now courtesy of the
NOAA Gulfstream-IV jet aicraft data getting into the models. They
are in excellent agreement on Ernesto making landfall along the
middle to upper Florida Keys and the southern peninsula of Florida
in 18-24 hours. The subtropical ridge currently located over the
southeastern U.S. Is forecast by all the models to slowly erode and
shift eastward as a vigorous shortwave trough over the central U.S.
Digs east-southeastward. The models also agree that Ernesto should
re-emerge over the Atlantic off the northeastern Florida coast and
make a second landfall in the South Carolina-North Carolina area in
60-72 hours. After the second U.S. Landfall...Ernesto is expected
to be caught up by the aforementioned shortwave trough and be drawn
northward into the eastern Great Lakes area and possibly become a
significant extratropical low pressure system. The official
forecast track is just an extension of the previous track through
72 hours...and then west of the previous track at 96 and 120 hours.
This is consistent with the various NHC consensus model forecasts.
Now that Ernesto has moved back over water...at least some steady
intensification is expected. A small but potent upper-level low
situated about 120 nmi northwest of Ernesto is enhancing
thunderstorm development...but is also creating some southerly
shear and punching dry air into the southern semicircle. However...
the hindering effects of that system are forecast by all the models
to diminish within the next 12 hours as Ernesto is passing over the
warm gulfstream. In 18 hours or so...the vertical wind shear across
Ernesto is forecast to be near zero...so there is still some chance
that the cyclone could become a hurricane before reaching Florida.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 29/0900z 22.6n 78.9w 40 kt
12hr VT 29/1800z 23.8n 79.8w 50 kt
24hr VT 30/0600z 25.4n 80.7w 60 kt...inland
36hr VT 30/1800z 27.3n 81.0w 50 kt...inland
48hr VT 31/0600z 29.7n 80.8w 55 kt
72hr VT 01/0600z 34.7n 79.4w 40 kt...inland
96hr VT 02/0600z 38.0n 79.0w 35 kt...inland
120hr VT 03/0600z 42.0n 80.0w 25 kt...inland extratropical

$$
forecaster Stewart

[Tertius]

568
SXXX50 KNHC 290900
AF306 1305A ERNESTO HDOB 37 KNHC
0850. 2317N 07939W 01526 0043 051 024 170 160 025 01607 0000000000
0851 2316N 07941W 01531 0048 051 023 168 160 024 01616 0000000000
0851. 2315N 07941W 01526 0044 052 023 166 158 024 01608 0000000000
0852 2314N 07940W 01524 0039 060 024 142 142 024 01601 0000000000
0852. 2313N 07938W 01527 0040 055 027 170 158 028 01605 0000000000
0853 2311N 07937W 01527 0040 056 025 170 152 025 01605 0000000000
0853. 2310N 07936W 01526 0039 057 025 170 152 026 01602 0000000000
0854 2309N 07935W 01524 0039 051 022 170 158 023 01600 0000000000
0854. 2308N 07933W 01527 0039 049 020 170 156 021 01603 0000000000
0855 2307N 07932W 01526 0038 050 019 170 160 020 01602 0000000000
0855. 2306N 07931W 01524 0037 040 018 160 160 019 01599 0000000000
0856 2305N 07930W 01527 0036 047 020 144 144 021 01600 0000000000
0856. 2303N 07928W 01524 0035 060 017 156 156 018 01597 0000000000
0857 2302N 07927W 01527 0035 052 019 172 164 020 01599 0000000000
0857. 2301N 07926W 01527 0034 046 023 174 158 025 01598 0000000000
0858 2300N 07925W 01526 0032 044 025 174 166 025 01596 0000000000
0858. 2259N 07923W 01523 0032 043 027 176 152 028 01593 0000000000
0859 2258N 07922W 01528 0032 044 024 174 156 028 01597 0000000000
0859. 2256N 07921W 01526 0030 033 020 176 158 020 01593 0000000000
0900 2255N 07919W 01525 0029 040 021 178 160 022 01592 0000000000

Here's the latest, if anyone wants to take over shout out, otherwise I'll keep posting them.

[Thunder44]

[Tertius]

515
SXXX50 KNHC 290910
AF306 1305A ERNESTO HDOB 38 KNHC
0900. 2254N 07918W 01527 0029 038 021 178 162 022 01593 0000000000
0901 2253N 07917W 01526 0027 031 020 182 164 022 01590 0000000000
0901. 2252N 07916W 01527 0026 026 020 180 166 023 01591 0000000000
0902 2251N 07914W 01525 0025 018 014 172 170 015 01588 0000000000
0902. 2250N 07912W 01526 0025 014 011 174 170 013 01588 0000000000
0903 2249N 07911W 01525 0023 009 006 170 170 009 01586 0000000000
0903. 2249N 07909W 01526 0023 353 002 168 166 003 01587 0000000000
0904 2249N 07907W 01527 0023 198 002 160 160 003 01588 0000000000
0904. 2248N 07906W 01525 0024 202 003 172 166 005 01586 0000000000
0905 2248N 07904W 01524 0025 168 004 144 144 006 01587 0000000000
0905. 2247N 07903W 01532 0024 176 002 156 156 003 01593 0000000000
0906 2245N 07902W 01524 0024 186 001 168 164 002 01586 0000000000
0906. 2244N 07901W 01527 0024 285 001 174 162 002 01588 0000000000
0907 2242N 07901W 01526 0023 013 004 172 166 006 01586 0000000000
0907. 2240N 07900W 01524 0023 058 009 174 150 009 01584 0000000000
0908 2239N 07900W 01529 0017 007 005 176 162 008 01584 0000000000
0908. 2237N 07859W 01522 0017 243 004 170 164 005 01577 0000000000
0909 2236N 07858W 01528 0020 244 006 180 160 006 01586 0000000000
0909. 2235N 07857W 01528 0022 245 007 178 164 008 01587 0000000000
0910 2234N 07855W 01527 0021 227 006 178 160 006 01585 0000000000

[Thunder44]

[Tertius]

925
SXXX50 KNHC 290920
AF306 1305A ERNESTO HDOB 39 KNHC
0910. 2236N 07854W 01525 0021 186 008 172 172 009 01583 0000000000
0911 2237N 07853W 01526 0022 188 010 174 174 011 01585 0000000000
0911. 2238N 07851W 01527 0022 173 011 172 172 011 01586 0000000000
0912 2240N 07850W 01527 0022 172 012 174 172 012 01587 0000000000
0912. 2241N 07849W 01523 0023 155 014 168 162 015 01583 0000000000
0913 2242N 07848W 01528 0024 148 014 170 158 015 01590 0000000000
0913. 2243N 07846W 01527 0024 154 014 170 156 014 01589 0000000000
0914 2245N 07845W 01525 0025 148 013 170 158 014 01588 0000000000
0914. 2246N 07844W 01528 0025 147 015 172 162 018 01591 0000000000
0915 2247N 07843W 01523 0026 134 016 174 162 017 01586 0000000000
0915. 2248N 07842W 01528 0027 130 017 170 162 018 01592 0000000000
0916 2249N 07840W 01526 0028 129 017 170 160 017 01590 0000000000
0916. 2251N 07839W 01527 0028 131 016 170 160 016 01592 0000000000
0917 2252N 07838W 01526 0029 131 016 170 160 016 01592 0000000000
0917. 2253N 07837W 01526 0029 134 016 170 160 016 01592 0000000000
0918 2254N 07836W 01525 0029 135 016 172 156 017 01591 0000000000
0918. 2256N 07834W 01528 0030 139 017 170 158 017 01595 0000000000
0919 2257N 07833W 01526 0030 141 018 174 148 019 01592 0000000000
0919. 2258N 07832W 01524 0030 139 021 176 148 021 01591 0000000000
0920 2259N 07831W 01525 0030 145 021 176 150 022 01593 0000000000

[bostonseminole]

927
URNT12 KNHC 290920
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/09:07:40Z
B. 22 deg 39 min N
079 deg 00 min W
C. 850 mb 1463 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 055 deg 028 kt
G. 311 deg 049 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 16 C/ 1527 m
J. 18 C/ 1526 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 34 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 1305A ERNESTO OB 16
MAX FL WIND 41 KT NE QUAD 08:25:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
;

[Thunder44]

[Thunder44]

VDM included

[Tertius]

329
SXXX50 KNHC 290930
AF306 1305A ERNESTO HDOB 40 KNHC
0920. 2301N 07830W 01527 0031 150 023 174 152 023 01595 0000000000
0921 2302N 07828W 01524 0031 143 024 176 150 025 01592 0000000000
0921. 2303N 07827W 01527 0031 141 025 172 152 026 01595 0000000000
0922 2304N 07826W 01527 0030 139 027 166 166 027 01595 0000000000
0922. 2306N 07825W 01524 0031 141 027 164 164 028 01592 0000000000
0923 2307N 07823W 01528 0031 148 027 166 166 027 01597 0000000000
0923. 2308N 07822W 01524 0033 141 026 166 160 027 01595 0000000000
0924 2309N 07821W 01528 0034 142 027 170 158 029 01599 0000000000
0924. 2311N 07820W 01525 0034 144 029 164 164 030 01596 0000000000
0925 2312N 07818W 01527 0035 144 033 162 162 035 01599 0000000000
0925. 2313N 07817W 01524 0036 138 030 150 150 031 01597 0000000000
0926 2314N 07816W 01528 0037 140 027 166 164 028 01603 0000000000
0926. 2315N 07815W 01525 0038 139 028 160 160 028 01601 0000000000
0927 2317N 07814W 01525 0040 140 028 160 160 029 01603 0000000000
0927. 2318N 07813W 01531 0043 140 031 144 144 033 01612 0000000000
0928 2319N 07815W 01524 0041 132 028 138 138 030 01602 0000000000
0928. 2319N 07817W 01526 0038 136 025 146 146 026 01601 0000000000
0929 2319N 07819W 01528 0037 134 022 140 140 023 01602 0000000000
0929. 2319N 07821W 01525 0036 129 023 140 140 023 01598 0000000000
0930 2319N 07822W 01526 0036 123 024 144 144 024 01599 0000000000
;