ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[El Nino]

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =IPINECAY2

min pressure : 978.9 mb now the low is moving East from the station.

[jlauderdal]

JB was just on O'Reilly on Fox saying Hanna's gonna be a major into the SE, an "Historic Atlantic Hurricane."

I had heard elsewhere that he invoked the names of Floyd and Hugo on his last O'Reilly spot, so in the interest of providing some perspective, here was JB's original call, where he also invoked some other famous storms...

"But make no mistake about it, this is history in the making. Hanna, as suspected, will not only be caught and not only does it go to Florida, but such storms as Andrew, Betsy, Katrina, come to mind that came back west from east of 70 and scored double hits." (ed. gulf coast 2nd hit, as you'll se in the track fcst)

Initial: 22 north 64 west 992 mb 70 mph
Sunday: 24 north 68 west 971 mb 95 mph
Monday: 26 north 71 west 961 mb 115 mph
Tuesday: 25 north 73 west 951 mb 120 mph
Wednesday: 24 north 74 west 946 mb 125 mph
Thursday: 23 north 77 west 936 mb 135 mph
Friday: 25 north 81 west 936 mb 135 mph
Saturday: 29 north 85 west 946 mb 120 mph
Sunday: 33 north 89 west 996 mb 45 mph (inland)

add it to the archive right next to that initial Gustav track

[cpdaman]

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IPINECAY2

min pressure : 978.9 mb now the low is moving East from the station.

hanna is WEAKENING..........if she was moving that much east the winds would have not turned back to a direction they already were 5 hours ago.

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=ir

[Evil Jeremy]

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IPINECAY2

min pressure : 978.9 mb now the low is moving East from the station.

hanna is WEAKENING..........if she was moving that much east the winds would have not turned back to a direction they already were 5 hours ago.

Indeed she is: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

She also appears to be heading back to the west, but I am horrible with the Infrared.

[Blown Away]

Since 5pm Hanna has moved 60 miles East and 18 miles South. Is this E movement better for SFL or does it give the ridge more time to build farther W?

I'm clueless with the WV on steering. The 500 millibar map shows to me a High that should be taking Hanna west right now. Why it isn't is beyond my knowledge.
I wish there was a technology that could show dummies like me what exact steering influences are on a system in motion graphics.

I was looking at the Hanna advisory archive from a few days ago. Hanna's current forecast track is a little faster. The forecasts from a few days ago had Hanna reaching my latitude (27.1N) on Friday, now it will reach my latitude Thursday afternoon. Maybe that's the difference, Thursday is a day sooner and maybe it does not allow the ridge to build far enough W to push Hanna into Florida? The NHC track does not account for the SE movement if that verifies. Pushing Hanna a little farther SE means it will take her a little longer to gain latitude and might allow the ridge to push Hanna more W. My logic is usually opposite of what will happen.

[GTStorm]

Say Hanna goes into Savannah. It looks like due north from there over Columbia. Would Columbia and Charlotte in NC also get hurricane force winds? as a cat1 on landfall?

In theory that seems reasonable. But I think Columbia is likely to be on the western side of eventual landfall, which I am holding will be well northeast of Savannah. My reasoning is the highly scientific approach of "all the other ones like it have recurved too". Well, except for David in '79, and I was here for that one. And before I get blasted for being irresponsible, yes my family and I are prepared for whatever may come, we're just sitting back and watching like everyone else here.

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IPINECAY2

min pressure : 978.9 mb now the low is moving East from the station.

hanna is WEAKENING..........if she was moving that much east the winds would have not turned back to a direction they already were 5 hours ago.

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=ir

look regardless of the pressure readings.... TC always always fluctuate... also given that the shear was going to eventually win over at least some what dont start saying its weakening when there is no evidence of that at all, warming tops can mean more than just weakening

[Dean4Storms]

Hannah is blocked from moving too much more to the west for now due to the ridge that has her boxed in from the North and extends around her to her SW.

She is going to drift around just like the NHC suggests with maybe a push against the ridge to the west slowly as the ridge begins to weaken to her west. Then comes the Atlantic ridge and her attempt to round it.

Meanwhile it looks like she is going to be fighting shear and upwelling so I would expect steady strength or slight weakening. I don't foresee her doing much till she starts to move NW and Gustav's outflow relaxes.

[Lowpressure]

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IPINECAY2

min pressure : 978.9 mb now the low is moving East from the station.

hanna is WEAKENING..........if she was moving that much east the winds would have not turned back to a direction they already were 5 hours ago.

Indeed she is: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

She also appears to be heading back to the west, but I am horrible with the Infrared.

I can't tell anything from that IR shot. Shear is still strong, cloud tops are warming, but movement, forget about it.

[lbvbl]

So is the 11pm track going to remain the same? Any thoughts?

[AJC3]

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IPINECAY2

min pressure : 978.9 mb now the low is moving East from the station.

the wind has actually gone from SW to SE at Pine Cay, which swould suggest that the center was either north or northwest of them and is now somewhere between WSW and SW of the station.

[cycloneye]

At the rate Hanna doesnt move much,IKE may catch her.

[terrapintransit]

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IPINECAY2

min pressure : 978.9 mb now the low is moving East from the station.

hanna is WEAKENING..........if she was moving that much east the winds would have not turned back to a direction they already were 5 hours ago.

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=ir

Perhaps Hanna is still feeling the outflow from GUS...

[GTStorm]

JB was just on O'Reilly on Fox saying Hanna's gonna be a major into the SE, an "Historic Atlantic Hurricane."

I had heard elsewhere that he invoked the names of Floyd and Hugo on his last O'Reilly spot, so in the interest of providing some perspective, here was JB's original call, where he also invoked some other famous storms...

"But make no mistake about it, this is history in the making. Hanna, as suspected, will not only be caught and not only does it go to Florida, but such storms as Andrew, Betsy, Katrina, come to mind that came back west from east of 70 and scored double hits." (ed. gulf coast 2nd hit, as you'll se in the track fcst)

Initial: 22 north 64 west 992 mb 70 mph
Sunday: 24 north 68 west 971 mb 95 mph
Monday: 26 north 71 west 961 mb 115 mph
Tuesday: 25 north 73 west 951 mb 120 mph
Wednesday: 24 north 74 west 946 mb 125 mph
Thursday: 23 north 77 west 936 mb 135 mph
Friday: 25 north 81 west 936 mb 135 mph
Saturday: 29 north 85 west 946 mb 120 mph
Sunday: 33 north 89 west 996 mb 45 mph (inland)

add it to the archive right next to that initial Gustav track

Why do they let this guy keep going on like this?

[HURAKAN]

JB was just on O'Reilly on Fox saying Hanna's gonna be a major into the SE, an "Historic Atlantic Hurricane."

I had heard elsewhere that he invoked the names of Floyd and Hugo on his last O'Reilly spot, so in the interest of providing some perspective, here was JB's original call, where he also invoked some other famous storms...

"But make no mistake about it, this is history in the making. Hanna, as suspected, will not only be caught and not only does it go to Florida, but such storms as Andrew, Betsy, Katrina, come to mind that came back west from east of 70 and scored double hits." (ed. gulf coast 2nd hit, as you'll se in the track fcst)

Initial: 22 north 64 west 992 mb 70 mph
Sunday: 24 north 68 west 971 mb 95 mph
Monday: 26 north 71 west 961 mb 115 mph
Tuesday: 25 north 73 west 951 mb 120 mph
Wednesday: 24 north 74 west 946 mb 125 mph
Thursday: 23 north 77 west 936 mb 135 mph
Friday: 25 north 81 west 936 mb 135 mph
Saturday: 29 north 85 west 946 mb 120 mph
Sunday: 33 north 89 west 996 mb 45 mph (inland)

add it to the archive right next to that initial Gustav track

Plus the Bertha track, Gabrielle last year. I have to continue thinking!

[bahamaswx]

Cloud pattern taking on a much more sheared looked, and tops have warmed significantly. Shear is winning at the moment.

[Aric Dunn]

So is the 11pm track going to remain the same? Any thoughts?

probably the same maybe a slight westward shift

[cpdaman]

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IPINECAY2

min pressure : 978.9 mb now the low is moving East from the station.

the wind has actually gone from SW to SE at Pine Cay, which swould suggest that the center was either north or northwest of them and is now somewhere between WSW and SW of the station.

AJC3 do you think by this you can tell ......this is weakening or just "fluctuating" or ?

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=ir

[GTStorm]

So is the 11pm track going to remain the same? Any thoughts?

Slight rightward shift, based on this:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[Sanibel]

TWC said Hanna is held in place by the ULL up to its north off the east coast. I guess it is pinned by the High and the ULL. When that cut-off Low forms I guess it will break up the blocking pattern and break Hanna out along the High.