ATL: IKE Discussion

[chris_fit]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html

Ike is building back, eye area is visible again.

Look at the north part of that loop... you can see the clouds stream in from the north like a claw! (more shear???) Hopefully it'll rip Ike a new one

[Evil Jeremy]

gatorcane, the models shut that weakness off very rapidly, indeed most by about 48hrs have the high trying to rebuild in. The key question is does another trough coming through re-open the wound before its healed or does it get fully recorved and shunt Ike deeper into the gulf. Thats the biggie in terms of questions.

my feeling is in the GOM baby...South Fla sparred again. Wind and rain. Thats about it.

For the hundredth time, SFL has not been spared at all. We are 4 days and a thousand miles out from impact. Last night's cone had this in SFL. Today's cone brings it to the Keys. Who knows where it will be next time?

We are no where near out of the picture, and I wish people would understand that.

[Lifesgud2]

You know, I was thinking that too jlaud. I've had the feeling since yesterday that he really thinks this is headed towards S FL, but he definitely can't go against the NHC, no matter what he thinks. He's been telling channel 10 viewers he'd put shutters up Sunday if he had regular ones instead of accoridan ones. Tells me that he doesn't totally think we're out of the woods yet. We'll see though....

he also says these track changes are noise, i dont know maybe he sees this here we go again scenario that just adds to the complacency after it was headed right for us last night, i will tell you they take that track south of key west at 11pm and preparations in south florida will come to a quick halt thats for sure

exactly. It was a close call yesterday, however every run seems to be further and further away. Great news.

[gatorcane]

Canelaw, why would saying that SFL is not out of the woods be going against the NHC??? Where has the NHC said that? Does the cone reflect that as of 5pm? The probability of 34kt winds in Miami is higher than any other location (tied with Marathon).

What happens if tomorrow a model shifts east...folks will be shocked but a 50-mile shift in either direction for a storm 1000 miles away can't be viewed as an all-clear.

You know, I was thinking that too jlaud. I've had the feeling since yesterday that he really thinks this is headed towards S FL, but he definitely can't go against the NHC, no matter what he thinks. He's been telling channel 10 viewers he'd put shutters up Sunday if he had regular ones instead of accoridan ones. Tells me that he doesn't totally think we're out of the woods yet. We'll see though....

First off, tell him to get rid of the peanut butter in his mouth.

I agree 24 hours ago SE FL was in panic, now since the "LINE" is about 75 miles East of SE FL...well the line is not on SE FL so the urgency goes down.

Based on the 18Z NAM it sure looks like models are about to shift east again and what if those models shift east over SE FL again...?

[HURAKAN]

Lifesgud2, what do you feel about the lottery numbers?



Ike more like Ache! You know where!!!

[Myersgirl]

My SW FLA friends, did anyone see ch 5 Jim Farrell explain how the high moving in over the mid west would prevent Ike from coming back east should it end up offshore of SW FlA???

[Dean4Storms]

gatorcane, the models shut that weakness off very rapidly, indeed most by about 48hrs have the high trying to rebuild in. The key question is does another trough coming through re-open the wound before its healed or does it get fully recorved and shunt Ike deeper into the gulf. Thats the biggie in terms of questions.

my feeling is in the GOM baby...South Fla sparred again. Wind and rain. Thats about it.

Where is that Feeling Model run, ain't seen that one yet.

[jinftl]

Correction, the cone brings it into anywhere from central florida to cuba....the center black line is through the upper keys.

gatorcane, the models shut that weakness off very rapidly, indeed most by about 48hrs have the high trying to rebuild in. The key question is does another trough coming through re-open the wound before its healed or does it get fully recorved and shunt Ike deeper into the gulf. Thats the biggie in terms of questions.

my feeling is in the GOM baby...South Fla sparred again. Wind and rain. Thats about it.

For the hundredth time, SFL has not been spared at all. We are 4 days and a thousand miles out from impact. Last night's cone had this in SFL. Today's cone brings it to the Keys. Who knows where it will be next time?

We are no where near out of the picture, and I wish people would understand that.

[KWT]

Lifesgud2, I really think its too early to say, you guys in S.Florida are still well within the cone.

Ike's core is getting better organised it seems again and the NW quadrant looks a little stronger now as well which is a sign its trying to strengthen. Shear still impinging somewhat on the northern side however.

The other thing to note look what way the N.Quadrant is slanted...that gives a clue as to where its heading...

[WhirlWind]

This was just posted on a live chat with Dr. Jeff Masters on the newspress.com
JeffMasters - Everyone one the West Coast of Florida should be concerned about Ike. It sould hit anywhere along the coast as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane. There's a very good chance it will "shoot the gap" between Cuba and S. Florida and hook around and hit you. However, if you do live in W. Florida, there is no need to pack your bags yet. The forecast still has a high amount of uncertainty, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the model runs converge on a solution tomorrow that shows less danger for W. Florida.
Just a FYI
WhirlWind

[Canelaw99]

Canelaw, why would saying that SFL is not out of the woods be going against the NHC??? Where has the NHC said that? Does the cone reflect that as of 5pm? The probability of 34kt winds in Miami is higher than any other location (tied with Marathon).

What happens if tomorrow a model shifts east...folks will be shocked but a 50-mile shift in either direction for a storm 1000 miles away can't be viewed as an all-clear.

My point was with jlaud's post about how Max seems when he's talking on Channel 10. It seems that he's holding something back, and I'm simply guessing at what it is. It also wouldn't be very good for him to turn around on air and say "All Hell's going to break loose in downtown Miami tues. Run while you can." I mean, that's an exaggeration, but that's the kind of thing I was referring to. If he has the thoughts/feelings/ideas/whatever that this is shifting north and will impact more of metro Dade or Broward, it wouldn't be good for him to come out and say it when the NHC track has shifted to the lower Keys and they mentioned it could shift further south and west in their 5pm disco.

People here in S FL will continue to prep as long as the threat is still there, but as soon as it seems the threat has shifted far enough off of us, most preps will slow or cease, as mentioned in an earlier post.....

Did that come across better?

[tolakram]

Loop:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Catch it soon, before it's too dark, and you can clearly see the eye sinking and becoming more apparent.

[Lifesgud2]

gatorcane, the models shut that weakness off very rapidly, indeed most by about 48hrs have the high trying to rebuild in. The key question is does another trough coming through re-open the wound before its healed or does it get fully recorved and shunt Ike deeper into the gulf. Thats the biggie in terms of questions.

my feeling is in the GOM baby...South Fla sparred again. Wind and rain. Thats about it.

For the hundredth time, SFL has not been spared at all. We are 4 days and a thousand miles out from impact. Last night's cone had this in SFL. Today's cone brings it to the Keys. Who knows where it will be next time?

We are no where near out of the picture, and I wish people would understand that.

EJ,

So if tomorrow the cone is shifted even further south at the 5am adv, i would personelly feel a whole lot better. If you look at the models a couple of days ago, they were all recurving before SF. Then yesterday, they were right at Gt Cut. This morning they were on Key West. Hmmm... To me, the trend is west my friend. Go West young man...

[WhirlWind]

ok more live chat from Dr. Jeff Masters
JeffMasters - Ike could cross the state from Miami to Ft. Myers, emerge into the Gulf, then turn around and hit Tampa and cross the state again. That is the current GFS model forecast.
WhirlWind

[meteorologyman]

regaurdles where this go,Everyone in Florida needs to be prepared, because one way or another majority of Fl if not all FL will be impacted unless it decides to recurve bact to sea which is looking very unlikely,FL will either get slammed with heavy rain, or Heavy wind, or even both. The beach cost will take a heavy beating with erosion,

If it comes from the west side (the GULF) the SE FL, Keys, W coast FL, centralFL, l E centralFL, NE FL will get impacted.

IF it hits the east side of FL: SE FL, Central FL, E central FL, W FL, and NE FL will get impacted

[jinftl]

Did anyone notice that the radius of tropical storm force winds went from 105 miles from the center at 11am to 120 miles at 5pm? The radius of hurricane force winds went from 35 miles from the center at 11am to 45 miles at 5pm as well.


Expanding wind field....hmmmm....impacts potentially further from center....hmmm...

[jlauderdal]

Until my home is not in the shaded 5-day cone...actually southeast florida is close to being in solid white 3-day cone...

Letting your guard down in south florida now would be as foolish as the logic some people used earlier when they said they wouldn't buy the forecast for landfall in south florida because of the 5-day margin of error.

Portastorm, yep that may well be happening here as well given you've got a big spread from the recurving GFS at 120hrs to the ECM over western tip of Cuba, its a big difference!

Dean4Storms, exactly everywhere in the region you mention needs to watch this...

I've still got a bad feeling that the T&C are going to take the brunt of a possibly rapidly reorganising cat-3/4, I suppose they are built for hurricanes but even so not sure I'd want to ride out a cat-3/4 there.

It just blows my mind on here how some get bent all out of shape and some start with the declarations of who isn't and who is going to get hit due to one set of model runs on a 3-5 day forecast, incredible.

the theory is you want to be at the 5 day point because of NHC's error forecasting that far out, you have to agree there is some merit to the thought of it. Of course you have gustav where that idea didnt workout so well.

[CourierPR]

Did anyone notice that the radius of tropical storm force winds went from 105 miles from the center at 11am to 120 miles at 5pm? The radius of hurricane force winds went from 35 miles from the center at 11am to 45 miles at 5pm as well.


Expanding wind field....hmmmm....impacts potentially further from center....hmmm...

Yes, Max Mayfield said this would happen.

[HURAKAN]

Results for 25.7N, 80.4W:
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 24.3N, 81.1W or about 104.7 miles (168.5 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 93.5 hours (Tuesday, September 9 at 2:30PM EDT).

Link: http://stormcarib.com/closest.cgi

[SouthFLTropics]

I agree 24 hours ago SE FL was in panic, now since the "LINE" is about 75 miles East of SE FL...well the line is not on SE FL so the urgency goes down.

Based on the 18Z NAM it sure looks like models are about to shift east again and what if those models shift east over SE FL again...?

Gatorcane...I would take that with a grain of salt...After all it is the NAM. If the GFS, GFDL, Euro, and HWRF follow suit then we can talk more about that. I will agree that it is definitely a possibility, especially after reviewing the water vapor loop.

SFT