ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[typhoonty]

Galveston is well within the cone, with the NHC explicitly stating that more northward shifts could come. I mentioned Galveston because residents and visitors are being informed it is not really a possibility (when in fact there is a small possibility) that a hurricane could be taking aim for them in the coming days, hence being unprepared if this situation comes into fruition.

There’s a situation where we could see a strengthening hurricane in the Gulf tomorrow taking aim at populated Texas beaches that aren’t expecting it. With 4th of Julyers heading home Sunday, it would be a cluster if evacuations were ordered. I know the majority of people in Galveston would be unprepared, especially with local mets continuing to assure locals of a Brownsville landfall (not saying this doesn’t end up happening but it is trending away from that solution).

A direct Galveston strike is highly unlikely. Brownsville to Corpus seems like the favored location as of now. That isn’t to say Galveston won’t see any impacts, as surge could still be an issue.

Galveston wasn’t in the cone until 10PM central last night and people were probably out partying. They’ve been out of the cone before then. The NHC are excellent forecasters, but are given a tool that is poor in its ability to communicate what it actually means. While we know better, a lot of people see they aren’t in the cone and it’s an all clear to them.

There’s a reason there has to be a 1 minute explanation of what the cone means during hurricane broadcasts. Given its public facing nature, the cone needs to be bigger, like 80% instead of 67% There’s a decent chance Beryl makes landfall outside the cone from 24 hours ago.

[Stormgodess]

First VIS imagery of Beryl this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/vDzK2jI.jpeg

Geez I'm getting frustrated at this point!

Has any of the models kept up to Beyrl's ACTUAL path?

[Sciencerocks]

[sphelps8681]

I agree just because your not in the cone does not mean all clear. I had the unfortunate experience to have to deal with Harvey. Was not a fun day at the beach for sure. Took months to years for people to finally get back on their feet. Might as well had a direct hit. I believe we had 56in of rain fall in my area during Harvey. We literally were an island with no way in or out except by boat. Just might thoughts.

[Tireman4]

Blake Matthews ( pro Met in Houston) TEXANS—the entire TX coast is now in the cone. Models inching northward. You need to have a hurricane plan of action. Hurricane watches for the Texas coast are likely this weekend. While STX has the higher chance from C. Christi south, CTX near Port A can’t be ruled out. #beryl

[Pipelines182]

Galveston is well within the cone, with the NHC explicitly stating that more northward shifts could come. I mentioned Galveston because residents and visitors are being informed it is not really a possibility (when in fact there is a small possibility) that a hurricane could be taking aim for them in the coming days, hence being unprepared if this situation comes into fruition.

A direct Galveston strike is highly unlikely. Brownsville to Corpus seems like the favored location as of now. That isn’t to say Galveston won’t see any impacts, as surge could still be an issue.

Galveston wasn’t in the cone until 10PM central last night and people were probably out partying. They’ve been out of the cone before then. The NHC are excellent forecasters, but are given a tool that is poor in its ability to communicate what it actually means. While we know better, a lot of people see they aren’t in the cone and it’s an all clear to them.

There’s a reason there has to be a 1 minute explanation of what the cone means during hurricane broadcasts. Given its public facing nature, the cone needs to be bigger, like 80% instead of 67% There’s a decent chance Beryl makes landfall outside the cone from 24 hours ago.

The NHC has the same messaging issue with intensity as well, but worse. What happened with Beryl seems to be happening with more storms as of late (Michael anyone?). The official intensity forecast gets completely blown out of the water due to RI and people end up facing a CAT 4/5 when they were told a far weaker storm was coming just 48 hours before. They may bury in the discussion something about "potential for intensification beyond forecast" but people aren't seeing that. I know they don't want to start a panic and over hype a storm, but they need to figure out a way to get the messaging out when there's a reasonable chance for RI and the strength cap is significantly higher than the official forecast. Maybe using some type of percentage figure like the SPC does for violent tornadoes? I don't know.

[Frank P]

First VIS imagery of Beryl this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/vDzK2jI.jpeg

Whoa, it looks like Beryl took a big jog north if I understand where the eye might be!

look at this Cancun radar loop and you can follow the center as it crosses the Yucatan
https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/observand ... radares-v3

[tolakram]

Galveston is well within the cone, with the NHC explicitly stating that more northward shifts could come. I mentioned Galveston because residents and visitors are being informed it is not really a possibility (when in fact there is a small possibility) that a hurricane could be taking aim for them in the coming days, hence being unprepared if this situation comes into fruition.

A direct Galveston strike is highly unlikely. Brownsville to Corpus seems like the favored location as of now. That isn’t to say Galveston won’t see any impacts, as surge could still be an issue.

Galveston wasn’t in the cone until 10PM central last night and people were probably out partying. They’ve been out of the cone before then. The NHC are excellent forecasters, but are given a tool that is poor in its ability to communicate what it actually means. While we know better, a lot of people see they aren’t in the cone and it’s an all clear to them.

There’s a reason there has to be a 1 minute explanation of what the cone means during hurricane broadcasts. Given its public facing nature, the cone needs to be bigger, like 80% instead of 67% There’s a decent chance Beryl makes landfall outside the cone from 24 hours ago.

It's unfortunate our modeling is so bad, but anyone living in a hurricane zone needs to know the dangers. You get into this situation where maybe the NHC reacts quicker and warns sooner, only to have the models bend back and the storm ends up 500 miles south. There's no winning here, BUT I think it's fair to say that with continued late model failures it's wise to somehow improve the simple message that you are in a danger zone. But would that cover the entire gulf coast every storm?

[tolakram]

Galveston is well within the cone, with the NHC explicitly stating that more northward shifts could come. I mentioned Galveston because residents and visitors are being informed it is not really a possibility (when in fact there is a small possibility) that a hurricane could be taking aim for them in the coming days, hence being unprepared if this situation comes into fruition.

Galveston wasn’t in the cone until 10PM central last night and people were probably out partying. They’ve been out of the cone before then. The NHC are excellent forecasters, but are given a tool that is poor in its ability to communicate what it actually means. While we know better, a lot of people see they aren’t in the cone and it’s an all clear to them.

There’s a reason there has to be a 1 minute explanation of what the cone means during hurricane broadcasts. Given its public facing nature, the cone needs to be bigger, like 80% instead of 67% There’s a decent chance Beryl makes landfall outside the cone from 24 hours ago.

The NHC has the same messaging issue with intensity as well, but worse. What happened with Beryl seems to be happening with more storms as of late (Michael anyone?). The official intensity forecast gets completely blown out of the water due to RI and people end up facing a CAT 4/5 when they were told a far weaker storm was coming just 48 hours before. They may bury in the discussion something about "potential for intensification beyond forecast" but people aren't seeing that. I know they don't want to start a panic and over hype a storm, but they need to figure out a way to get the messaging out when there's a reasonable chance for RI and the strength cap is significantly higher than the official forecast. Maybe using some type of percentage figure like the SPC does for violent tornadoes? I don't know.

Yea, but how? We've got to improve the tools first. And if Beryl ends up going south then how does this message read? It's fair criticism, but no sure fire solution that I can see.

[Bimms]

Is it just my imagination, or did she almost skirt the tip of the Yucatan? Seems like she took a big jog north, limiting her land interaction.

[NDG]

I am not surprised Beryl is heading to Texas. I hope we don't have another Harvey in our hands as it slows down before making landfall.

[wx98]

Galveston is well within the cone, with the NHC explicitly stating that more northward shifts could come. I mentioned Galveston because residents and visitors are being informed it is not really a possibility (when in fact there is a small possibility) that a hurricane could be taking aim for them in the coming days, hence being unprepared if this situation comes into fruition.

As I said, a direct strike is unlikely, but they will likely feel some effects in the form of surge and outer bands.

With all due respect, please do not say that. You absolutely could be right or you could be wrong. ALL residents along the Texas coast should be prepared for anything. Stay tuned to the NHC and your local NWS. With landfalling tropical systems, everything can be in play. Ike, Allison and Harvey come to mind. Thank you.

I have as much of a right to express my opinion as the multiple people who previously stated (wrongly) that the hurricane would go north of Cozumel and even the Yucatán altogether. I did not say Galveston would not see any impacts at all.

Also, I don’t need a reminder to stay on topic, as I should be able to defend myself to someone telling me not to say something.

[Pipelines182]

Galveston wasn’t in the cone until 10PM central last night and people were probably out partying. They’ve been out of the cone before then. The NHC are excellent forecasters, but are given a tool that is poor in its ability to communicate what it actually means. While we know better, a lot of people see they aren’t in the cone and it’s an all clear to them.

There’s a reason there has to be a 1 minute explanation of what the cone means during hurricane broadcasts. Given its public facing nature, the cone needs to be bigger, like 80% instead of 67% There’s a decent chance Beryl makes landfall outside the cone from 24 hours ago.

The NHC has the same messaging issue with intensity as well, but worse. What happened with Beryl seems to be happening with more storms as of late (Michael anyone?). The official intensity forecast gets completely blown out of the water due to RI and people end up facing a CAT 4/5 when they were told a far weaker storm was coming just 48 hours before. They may bury in the discussion something about "potential for intensification beyond forecast" but people aren't seeing that. I know they don't want to start a panic and over hype a storm, but they need to figure out a way to get the messaging out when there's a reasonable chance for RI and the strength cap is significantly higher than the official forecast. Maybe using some type of percentage figure like the SPC does for violent tornadoes? I don't know.

Yea, but how? We've got to improve the tools first. And if Beryl ends up going south then how does this message read? It's fair criticism, but no sure fire solution that I can see.

The tools are being improved constantly but I don't think we'll ever to really be able to accurately forecast intensity, no more than we can forecast the exact location of a tornado, at least not in our lifetime. The SPC uses a hatched area for tornado forecasts whenever there's a risk of violent tornadoes, that's on top of their base tornado risk percentage. That differentiates a 10% tornado risk day with no risk of severe tornadoes, vs one with severe tornadoes. I could see that working the same way with hurricanes. Take Beryl, originally forecast to hit the Lesser Antilles as a Cat 2. If this was a normal June storm with very low risk of RI, just keep the forecast as it is. If it's 2024 and there is a risk of RI, there needs to be something on the forecast indicating that risk. Maybe just adding another symbol next to the windspeed number or hurricane symbol that indicates a risk of RI beyond forecast intensity. I don't know, public outreach isn't my field of expertise, I just know the current messaging method isn't sufficient anymore, I've seen it firsthand.

[Steve]

Is it just my imagination, or did she almost skirt the tip of the Yucatan? Seems like she took a big jog north, limiting her land interaction.

Looks maybe a hair north of WNW on Cancun Radar to me. Click on the cancun radar image and play obviously. Center looks to be around Valladolid or so.

https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/observand ... radares-v3

[HurricaneBrain]

View the radar link Frank provided above. The center is more noticeable and easier to track on radar than it is on satellite imagery. You can’t go off center of mass on satellite imagery when pinpointing a center

Is it just my imagination, or did she almost skirt the tip of the Yucatan? Seems like she took a big jog north, limiting her land interaction.

[Texashawk]

Any chance of an eye reformation further north, especially while she’s over land? Satellite looks like most of the CDO moved north a bit.

[Michele B]

First VIS imagery of Beryl this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/vDzK2jI.jpeg

Whoa, it looks like Beryl took a big jog north if I understand where the eye might be!

It looks like a second “spinning vortex” or lower center of circulation or cluster of clouds just ato the northern tip of the Yucatán. I don’t think that’s the eye.

[Stormgodess]

View the radar link Frank provided above. The center is more noticeable and easier to track on radar than it is on satellite imagery. You can’t go off center of mass on satellite imagery when pinpointing a center

Is it just my imagination, or did she almost skirt the tip of the Yucatan? Seems like she took a big jog north, limiting her land interaction.

Yes! Thank you! I had myself in a panic thinking center was just North of the tip because of satellite.

[3090]

I am not surprised Beryl is heading to Texas. I hope we don't have another Harvey in our hands as it slows down before making landfall.

Not surprised now after the past 10 days a lot of folks with good knowledge were thinking Beryl would be ZERO threat to the U.S. coast?

[Michele B]

Galveston is well within the cone, with the NHC explicitly stating that more northward shifts could come. I mentioned Galveston because residents and visitors are being informed it is not really a possibility (when in fact there is a small possibility) that a hurricane could be taking aim for them in the coming days, hence being unprepared if this situation comes into fruition.

Galveston wasn’t in the cone until 10PM central last night and people were probably out partying. They’ve been out of the cone before then. The NHC are excellent forecasters, but are given a tool that is poor in its ability to communicate what it actually means. While we know better, a lot of people see they aren’t in the cone and it’s an all clear to them.

There’s a reason there has to be a 1 minute explanation of what the cone means during hurricane broadcasts. Given its public facing nature, the cone needs to be bigger, like 80% instead of 67% There’s a decent chance Beryl makes landfall outside the cone from 24 hours ago.

It's unfortunate our modeling is so bad, but anyone living in a hurricane zone needs to know the dangers. You get into this situation where maybe the NHC reacts quicker and warns sooner, only to have the models bend back and the storm ends up 500 miles south. There's no winning here, BUT I think it's fair to say that with continued late model failures it's wise to somehow improve the simple message that you are in a danger zone. But would that cover the entire gulf coast every storm?

I would think it would be prudent to tell anyone living within a couple hundred miles of a cone (it’s called “UNCERTAINTY for a reason!) to watch carefully for changes as the track becomes more certain