Texas Winter 2025-2026

[TomballEd]

I live on the Harris County/Montgomery County line in far Northwest Tomball. Are the models currently showing freezing rain here with this storm, or mainly just rain?

We live in an interesting place. I don't know how to change my forum name but I'm in Spring now, not Tomball. But same boat.

The freezing line probably gets here as the precip is ending. Any amount of FZRA is an issue on mountains and overpasses but major bridges will be treated. The question is does the change to FZRA happen early enough to maybe damage trees/down powerlines. I'm leaning no personally but a Saturday forecast on a Monday might not be the same forecast on a Thursday or Friday.

[TomballEd]

The position of the HP looks better as well for us correct?

When you say looks better, do you mean not crushing the infrastructure and causing widespread chaos, or hell yeah we're going to get obliterated and shut down everything! I think our definition of better on this website sometimes escapes us.

I'm not saying anyone's condoning destruction, but at the same time I'm just curious what better means.

That’s the thing about the rolling blackouts. I didn’t sleep because my cpap kept shutting off. Couldn’t sleep worth a hoot.

I did almost everything else right. Marked the water shut off switch in 8” of snow. Had a cord of wood. Kept the pipes warm by opening the door to the attic. The only other thing I didn’t do right was drain the sprinkler system but even that there was only two breaks. One on my side and the joint before the shutoff valve. Cost $600 to fix it. Lost all my boxwoods and Indian hawthorns in the front yard. Even lost the youpon holly. lol. I didn’t think that was possible.

I sleep horribly w/o CPAP. I've been meaning to buy a rechargeable or solar powered CPAP battery since Beryl but haven't done so. I hope ERCOT drops the AI and Datamining plants to keep the rest of the state lit if load gets too high. But I suspect they'll be a stripe from SC to E Texas with enough ice to cause large power outages.

[wxman57]

Hate to jinx it, but TWC app now has Dallas getting 3-5" of ice/snow on Saturday.

That appears to match the GFS model output. I don't think any meteorologist at TWC oversees the forecast.

[wxman57]

18Z NBM (based on 12Z data) has temps 33-35 Sat/Sun with a low of 31 on Monday here in Houston. Sometimes a blend of models is not the best solution. I'm not sure what models are in this blend. The NBM website mentions use of the EC, CMC, and GFS operational and various ensembles.

[TomballEd]

Hate to jinx it, but TWC app now has Dallas getting 3-5" of ice/snow on Saturday.

That appears to match the GFS model output. I don't think any meteorologist at TWC oversees the forecast.

No idea about the app but I do know TWC uses older former TV hosts to do local segments on the radio and I'd at least hope they would at least try to do more rip and reads even if they cover well separated forecast areas. I do know people complain about NOAA/NWS but I trust a team of specialists in the national forecast centers and people who just do the HGX CWA more than I trust any TWC forecast or ABC 13 Accuweather forecast.

[TomballEd]

18Z NBM (based on 12Z data) has temps 33-35 Sat/Sun with a low of 31 on Monday here in Houston. Sometimes a blend of models is not the best solution. I'm not sure what models are in this blend. The NBM website mentions use of the EC, CMC, and GFS operational and various ensembles.

There isn't something like the Super Secret FSU super ensemble NHC used to reference all the time that apparently weighted various models for known biases for mid-latitude forecasting?

[Ntxw]

FWIW 18z ICON ticked up again in QPF. It doesn't depict snow but rather qpf falling at or below freezing in N and NE Texas.

[Kingarabian]

ICON playing spoiler in regards to snow?

[Gotwood]

ICON playing spoiler in regards to snow?

The Icon has done well with arctic air masses but it isn’t coming around yet.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

ICON playing spoiler in regards to snow?

No, the ICON doesn’t tell you what the precip type is just that precip is falling.

[rwfromkansas]

ICON playing spoiler in regards to snow?

I think they mean the model doesn't really try to differentiate between types of frozen.

[Kingarabian]

ICON playing spoiler in regards to snow?

No, the ICON doesn’t tell you what the precip type is just that precip is falling.

Ah understood. I just thought otherwise because Pivotal has snowfall enabled.

[snownado]

ICON playing spoiler in regards to snow?

No, the ICON doesn’t tell you what the precip type is just that precip is falling.

Pivotal Weather has the same precip type maps for the ICON as the EURO/GFS/GGEM...

[orangeblood]

ICON is the outlier by far and is playing catch up to the others, it’ll come around. Usually see the same trend happen with the NAM at the early stages of its cycle

[Kingarabian]

[txtwister78]

18z gfs definitely coming in warmer regarding surface temps compared to the 12z run

[HockeyTx82]

18z gfs definitely coming in warmer regarding surface temps compared to the 12z run

And

Here

We




Go.......

[wxman22]

[Stratton23]

GFS likely too warm with surface temps again

[Harp.1]

It moves everything to the east quicker