Frances Advisories

[Hurricanegurl56]

would i feel cat. 2 or 3 winds in Boca Raton?

[drudd1]

The general consensus is the the ULL, if anything, will keep Francis on a more westerly track. At this time, the hurricane seems to be following the ULL. If the ULL decided to move off to the NW, and then north, then a good argument could be made that Francis might very well do the same. At this point, that doesn't look to be the case.

[ericinmia]

oh gezzz...what is that map saying in laymen terms?? Eric i enjoy your post btw....

If you look at the outflow of frances... The new image has the entire northern and northwestern quandrants are channeling into the high. They in essense are pumping the high with "steroids". The older image had this occuring to a lesser extent; mostly to the north-north-east.

Here is another map from almost a day ago...
Notice how the high and its wind pattern has moved with the storm, and actually moved farther ahead of it. Comparing this older one to the newer one above you can ascertain it also had a large affect on the ULL that was over the Bahamas. It is pretty much bullying the old ULL out of the way...



Hope that helped a little.
-Eric

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

thank you...now i know i am not invisible...

[BocaGirl]

Stay safe. I will think of you and everyone in the the storm's path this morning and pray you're safe. Please report back when you can.

BocaGirl
Barbara

[ColinD]

would i feel cat. 2 or 3 winds in Boca Raton?

If Frances follows the exact path given by the NHC Boca would be about 140-160 miles from center. Right at the edge of the predicted tropical storm force winds (about 40mph)

Boca = 26.3N, -80.1 W

96hr forecast position 04/0600z 26.5n 78.5w 120 kt

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 25.0N 75.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.

[caribepr]

Stay safe, hoping for the best for St. Martin and the rest of the islands...Bahamas included

[schmita]

Hi,
Frances is now 125 miles north of us. No rain, little wind. Very dark and eerie. Lagoon dead calm. Looking north, purple skies.On radar it shows feeder bands coming over us. I don't understand why we are not getting stronger weather?
Will report later if there is anything to say !!
Irina
Thanks for the thoughts..
PS Is there some way to post pictures here?

[Thunder44]

417
URNT12 KNHC 311028
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/1028Z
B. 19 DEG 55 MIN N
63 DEG 08 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2650 M
D. 65 KT
E. 131 DEG 51 NM
F. 225 DEG 120 KT
G. 125 DEG 19 NM
H. 949 MB
I. 11 C/ 3099 M
J. 21 C/ 3087 M
K. 6 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF966 0806A FRANCES OB 21
MAX FL WIND 133 KT NE QUAD 0831Z.

Down one 1mb

[ColinD]

417
URNT12 KNHC 311028
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/1028Z
B. 19 DEG 55 MIN N
63 DEG 08 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2650 M
D. 65 KT
E. 131 DEG 51 NM
F. 225 DEG 120 KT
G. 125 DEG 19 NM
H. 949 MB
I. 11 C/ 3099 M
J. 21 C/ 3087 M
K. 6 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF966 0806A FRANCES OB 21
MAX FL WIND 133 KT NE QUAD 0831Z.

Down one 1mb

133 kt flight level is about 120 kt at surface if they use .9 multiplier.

[Guest]

wow, I do think this thing could be getting ready to bomb. The eye has gotten bigger, however it keeps clouding over in some parts.

[mf_dolphin]

If you can send the pictures to me I'll get hem posted for you! E-mail address = vmfrank@tamapabay.rr.com

[Thunder44]

URNT12 KNHC 311114
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/1114Z
B. 19 DEG 56 MIN N
63 DEG 20 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2649 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 105 DEG 138 KT
G. 023 DEG 21 NM
H. 950 MB
I. 11 C/ 3092 M
J. 19 C/ 3088 M
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF966 0806A FRANCES OB 27
MAX FL WIND 138 KT N QUAD 1107Z. SMALL HAIL OUTBOUND SOUTHWEST
EYEWALL.
Winds seem to be increasing, but the pressure doesn't seem to change. Interesting to see what they do at 8am.

[TampaFl]

I am also on information overload . Hopefully will get a better handle on the future track later today but for sure by Wednesday. Right now it still does not good for Central & South Florida.

Robert

[Matthew5]

That would say around 125 knots at surface?

[mf_dolphin]

If they use a .8 flight level conversion to surface = 128MPH, a .9 brings 144MPH

[Cousin Dave]

You think you guys are lost,I'm new here!
So much info to absorb!

[louise_l]

I would suggest that you assume Frances is headed your way, and make preparations accordingly. I just suggested the same in an e-mail to my brother, who is new to Florida (and the South) and lives in Port St. Lucie.

If Frances heads elsewhere, then you can breathe a sigh of relief. Unfortunately, this may not be the case.

[ColinD]

000
URNT12 KNHC 311114
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/1114Z
B. 19 DEG 56 MIN N
63 DEG 20 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2649 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 105 DEG 138 KT
G. 023 DEG 21 NM
H. 950 MB
I. 11 C/ 3092 M
J. 19 C/ 3088 M
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF966 0806A FRANCES OB 27
MAX FL WIND 138 KT N QUAD 1107Z. SMALL HAIL OUTBOUND SOUTHWEST
EYEWALL.

[PTPatrick]

Tallahassee:

LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH MON.
ALL EYES ARE ON MAJOR HURRICANE FRANCES. ALL INTERESTS IN FL AND GA
SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS
SYSTEM. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY, RESIDENTS SHOULD KEEP IN MIND THE
INHERENT TRACK ERRORS FOR FORECASTS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. THE
AVERAGE DAY 5 TRACK ERROR IS 325 NM. SEE THE RECENT PNSTLH (WMO
HEADER NOUS42 KTAE) FOR DETAILS. THAT SAID, EXTRAPOLATING THE
MOVEMENT OF FRANCES BEYOND DAY 5 BRINGS AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS
TO THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUN. SEE NO HARM IN TRENDING THE
FORECAST TOWARD MENTIONING BREEZY ACROSS OUR FL BIG BEND AND GA
ZONES ON SUN. THE 00Z GFS WAS WELL RIGHT OF THE 18Z RUN WITH THE
TRACK OF FRANCES, GOOD NEWS FOR FL. THE ETA, HOWEVER, IS FAR MORE
OMINOUS AIMING THE STORM THROUGH THE FL STRAITS ON FRI, WELL LEFT OF
ITS 18Z TRACK. THIS WOULD ALLOW FRANCES TO GET INTO THE ERN GULF
BEFORE RECURVING, NOT GOOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THESE TWO EXTREMES. STAY TUNED.


Tampa:
AS FOR FRANCES...JUST WHEN THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS APPEARED TO
CONVERGE...OFF IN THEIR OWN WORLD THEY GO ONCE AGAIN. AS OF THIS
WRITING...THE ETA...CANADIAN AND NOW NAVY NOGAPS MODELS WERE FARTHEST
SOUTH. THE ETA HAS FRANCES ENTERING THE STRAITS BY 12Z/FRI WHILE THE
CANADIAN/NOGAPS STEADILY MOVE IT ACROSS THE PENINSULA FROM SE TO NW
ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z UKMET THRU 72H APPEARS ON TRACK WITH
THE CURRENT TPC FCST.

THE BIG CHANGE...AS WAS THE CASE THIS TIME YESTERDAY...IS THE GFS
WHICH FIRST SLOWS FRANCES TO A CRAWL OVER THE CENTRAL/N BAHAMAS
BEFORE TAKING A DUE N MOTION INTO THE SE U.S. (CAROLINAS). ALSO JUST
LIKE YESTERDAY...THE GFDL IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.

THIS TIME...THE KEY PLAYER IS WHETHER A WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN
ATLC RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD ALLOW FRANCES TO PULL UP AND WAIT FOR THE SYSTEM IN THE
GULF OF AK TO EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE
GREAT PLAINS...WHERE DEEPENING AMPLITUDE INCREASES S/SW FLOW THAT
EVENTUALLY (BY SAT NIGHT OR SO) PICKS UP THE CYCLONE. THE GFS/GFDL
SHOW THIS WEAKNESS WHILE THE ETA/NOGAPS/UKMET DO NOT.

SO...SHOULD FRANCES BARELY SLOW DOWN...THE FARTHER S SOLUTIONS (MORE
OMINOUS FOR FLORIDA) LOOK BEST. BUT...IF FRANCES SLOWS TO A CRAWL
WHILE IN THE BAHAMAS...THE CHANCES FOR A FLORIDA LANDFALL DECREASE
DRAMATICALLY.

HOPEFULLY...WE'LL BE ABLE TO HONE IN ON A SOLUTION THIS TIME
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE "IN SIGHT".
STAY TUNED...

FOR NOW...THE ONLY CHANGES ON DAY 5/6 WERE TO INCREASE WINDS TO
BLEND WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES BASED ON 11 PM NHC ADVISORY...BUT
THAT'S ABOUT IT. WILL LEAVE SENSIBLE WX AS IS...WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDS AND 50 PCT RAIN CHANCES INTO SUNDAY BEFORE TAILING OFF AGAIN
MON.




They have some interesting analysis. Apparently the local mets seem to give at least weight to the ETA, NOGAPS, and other south models. This remains to be interesting...