Texas Winter 2013-2014

[dhweather]

Heh, the 12z GFS run ought to get tongues wagging around here.

Hint: You North Texans should focus on the period beginning at 216 hours. Enjoy.

Cat 5 In Lake Ray Hubbard?

[Portastorm]

Great read here:

http://www.gensiniwx.com/2013/12/the-tr ... t.html?m=1

That is a great read and thanks for sharing! I think this guy brings up a lot of good points and, as a professional communicator, I can appreciate the desire and goal for meteorologists to do a better job of communicating their visual images.

There definitely is a growing momentum in social media where folks desire to be the first to post this image, or that image. We see it here. Heck, I'm as guilty as the next Storm2Ker. So dhweather, are you suggesting that posters here should apply the same principle? Perhaps it does NOT go without saying that when we post and comment on model runs we realize and accept the fact that it's just one educated guess at weather in the future.

There is a wide range of weather acumen on this board. It is good to be reminded that not everyone understands what a negative EPO is or adiabatic cooling or CIN or CAPE values.

[Portastorm]

Heh, the 12z GFS run ought to get tongues wagging around here.

Hint: You North Texans should focus on the period beginning at 216 hours. Enjoy.

Cat 5 In Lake Ray Hubbard?

Yep! Better get your supplies now!

My motivation to post that tidbit was that the computer models, the operational runs that is, have not been showing much excitement. Now we have a GFS run that changes things a bit ...focuses colder weather on Texas and suggests a winter storm to boot. It is something to look at, find interesting, and file it away. If the next few GFS runs show the same thing and the Euro suggests something similar then folks might want to start paying a little more attention to that time frame.

[orangeblood]

Heh, the 12z GFS run ought to get tongues wagging around here.

Hint: You North Texans should focus on the period beginning at 216 hours. Enjoy.

It appears the system that gets cut off from the Pacific Jet and sits off the Coast of California this weekend is the key ingredient to whether this storm comes to fruition or not. Does it eject out too fast, preventing cold air from getting established ? or lag too far behind the cold front letting arctic air modify too much ? or Does it all come together for a heck of a January Southern plains winter storm ? It takes numerous factors for such a storm to take place this far south but the way this winter has been trending already, I wouldn't bet against it!!!

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[dhweather]

Oh, what Porta is referring to referring to in the 12Z GFS

REMEMBER THAT MODEL ERRORS BEYOND 5 DAYS CAN BE LARGE, BEYOND 10 DAYS CAN BE GINORMOUS

[TheProfessor]

The 12:00 GFS also has temperatures in the the single digits for North Texas.

[dhweather]

Great read here:

http://www.gensiniwx.com/2013/12/the-tr ... t.html?m=1

That is a great read and thanks for sharing! I think this guy brings up a lot of good points and, as a professional communicator, I can appreciate the desire and goal for meteorologists to do a better job of communicating their visual images.

There definitely is a growing momentum in social media where folks desire to be the first to post this image, or that image. We see it here. Heck, I'm as guilty as the next Storm2Ker. So dhweather, are you suggesting that posters here should apply the same principle? Perhaps it does NOT go without saying that when we post and comment on model runs we realize and accept the fact that it's just one educated guess at weather in the future.

There is a wide range of weather acumen on this board. It is good to be reminded that not everyone understands what a negative EPO is or adiabatic cooling or CIN or CAPE values.

I always think of the Tommy Lee Jones line in the first Men In Black:

Edwards: Why the big secret? People are smart. They can handle it.

Kay: A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it. Fifteen hundred years ago everybody knew the Earth was the center of the universe. Five hundred years ago, everybody knew the Earth was flat, and fifteen minutes ago, you knew that humans were alone on this planet. Imagine what you'll know tomorrow.


But, back to the topic, it is disturbing how many people strive to be "first" in social media. Some will put themselves in grave danger to get a picture of a tornado, for example. Educated professional tornado chasers have been killed this year, so the average Joe is at a much higher risk. So when some yahoo throws out 288 hour projections by one model run, it can cause a stir, just because that person wants to be "first". I know most posters here at least know a little about the weather, otherwise they wouldn't be reading. They count on more educated posters or our awesome pro mets to weigh in on the possibilities. But conversely, I always worry about someone randomly coming by and not bothering reading 2-4 pages of great discussion, they just see a picture that shows snow, tornadoes, hurricanes, and run with it.

[veedub63]

So when some yahoo throws out 288 hour projections by one model run, it can cause a stir, just because that person wants to be "first". I know most posters here at least know a little about the weather, otherwise they wouldn't be reading. They count on more educated posters or our awesome pro mets to weigh in on the possibilities. But conversely, I always worry about someone randomly coming by and not bothering reading 2-4 pages of great discussion, they just see a picture that shows snow, tornadoes, hurricanes, and run with it.

I hope the above statement doesn't have a chilling effect on you "yahoo"s who routinely post long range model information. I enjoy both reading of the atmospheric possibilities and reading the analysis (professional and amateur) of the model information. I appreciate the timely postings referencing the latest model runs ("first" or not).

[Tammie]

I couldn't agree more veedub63! I love the enthusiasm, information, and lessons we learn from all our wonderful "Yahoo's"!

[Portastorm]

12z Euro op pattern much different at 240 hours than GFS. Flatter ridging off the West Coast and a polar vortex well to the east of where the GFS has it.

So ... not much support for the 12z GFS run at the moment. Still a long ways off though and I have not looked closely at the ensembles. Maybe someone will want to opine on how they look at 240 hours in comparison.

[orangeblood]

12z Euro op pattern much different at 240 hours than GFS. Flatter ridging off the West Coast and a polar vortex well to the east of where the GFS has it.

So ... not much support for the 12z GFS run at the moment. Still a long ways off though and I have not looked closely at the ensembles. Maybe someone will want to opine on how they look at 240 hours in comparison.

Big difference between the two models, GFS phases northern and southern branch while Euro keeps the two branches separate. I would be more inclined to side towards the GFS as it keeps the dominate negative EPO intact while the Euro breaks it down towards a neutral to slightly positive state - See no reason to believe the negative EPO will go positive

Edit: Difference between the GFS and Euro Control Run EPO index is almost 3 SD's. Both Ensemble EPO indexes are neutral to slightly negative . The odds of phasing both branches go up the more negative the EPO

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

So when some yahoo throws out 288 hour projections by one model run, it can cause a stir, just because that person wants to be "first". I know most posters here at least know a little about the weather, otherwise they wouldn't be reading. They count on more educated posters or our awesome pro mets to weigh in on the possibilities. But conversely, I always worry about someone randomly coming by and not bothering reading 2-4 pages of great discussion, they just see a picture that shows snow, tornadoes, hurricanes, and run with it.

I hope the above statement doesn't have a chilling effect on you "yahoo"s who routinely post long range model information. I enjoy both reading of the atmospheric possibilities and reading the analysis (professional and amateur) of the model information. I appreciate the timely postings referencing the latest model runs ("first" or not).

I propose that when someone posts something from a long range model, they have to tag it with this photo, used by great Texas Rangers blogger Jamey Newberg on all of his trade rumors emails...

[Cyclenall]

Yep for JB for the most part,the western part of the country does not exist.

And you can add heat to that as well.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS does indicate a little cold air in TX around the 2nd/3rd. Down to 20F in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area on the 3rd and upper 20s in Houston. Nothing extreme, though. Euro is a good bit warmer, but only goes out to the morning of the 2nd (low 40s). I don't think I'd pay too much attention to the 10-15 day forecasts. Wait until an event is 4-5 days away to have a little confidence in it.

[Portastorm]

Haaa! I swear I didn't make this up. It's Hour 276 from the 18z GFS. This one's for you, wxman57!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[dhweather]

So when some yahoo throws out 288 hour projections by one model run, it can cause a stir, just because that person wants to be "first". I know most posters here at least know a little about the weather, otherwise they wouldn't be reading. They count on more educated posters or our awesome pro mets to weigh in on the possibilities. But conversely, I always worry about someone randomly coming by and not bothering reading 2-4 pages of great discussion, they just see a picture that shows snow, tornadoes, hurricanes, and run with it.

I hope the above statement doesn't have a chilling effect on you "yahoo"s who routinely post long range model information. I enjoy both reading of the atmospheric possibilities and reading the analysis (professional and amateur) of the model information. I appreciate the timely postings referencing the latest model runs ("first" or not).

Let me clarify to make sure there is no misunderstanding. I was referring to the link I posted earlier, where some people on twitter, aka yahoos, are posting 200+ hour model runs and preaching it as the gospel, when they don't even know what they are talking about.

I encourage you to read this, and you will understand what I mean by yahoos.

http://www.gensiniwx.com/2013/12/the-tr ... t.html?m=1



ok, MAYBE Porta is a yahoo when he's too far into the grey goose.

[wxman57]

Haaa! I swear I didn't make this up. It's Hour 276 from the 18z GFS. This one's for you, wxman57!

http://img132.imageshack.us/img132/5936/f9t6.png

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

I think that the frozen precip algorithm on that chart is suspect. It is making the incorrect assumption that precip is falling at the time of that map, which it isn't. It falls along the cold front which moved through many hours before. The precip indicated is a 12-hr total, but that total mostly falls in the beginning of the 12-hr period when the thicknesses are more like the 264hr map.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Cold core low!

[Tammie]

Can someone explain the "UK Superbomb" that occurred yesterday/today? What's so significant about it, and will it have any impact on the lower 48? Is it a "trend is our friend" situation or just some historical anomaly? TIA

[wxman57]

Can someone explain the "UK Superbomb" that occurred yesterday/today? What's so significant about it, and will it have any impact on the lower 48? Is it a "trend is our friend" situation or just some historical anomaly? TIA

It's a deep low center across the Atlantic affecting England and western Europe. No direct impact across the U.S.